Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Shortstops with Double-digit Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2004.
Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2004.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
RAR = Runs Above Replacement; Adjusted RAR = RAR modified to
consider a player's 2004 defensive rating in Scoresheet fantasy baseball.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

1.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jimmy Rollins		657	190	.289	14	73	30	119	S
PHI Phillies		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 25	B:S    T:R	31		31		36.8		41.9

Rollins very quietly finished among the top 10 NL roto hitters in his fourth full big league season. Despite dropping to a career-worst 3.41 #P/PA, combining a jump from a .82 contact rate to a .89 mark with his strong speed skills resulted in his best BA since assuming the Phillies' starting job. Playing in a new hitters' park also helped, so if he builds on his .310/.365/.540 second half performance after just turning 26 in November, Rollins could emerge as the preeminent NL shortstop for the rest of the decade.

2.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Rafael Furcal		563	157	.279	14	59	29	103	S
ATL Braves		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 26	B:S    T:R	25		26		24.7		21.9

Like Rollins, Furcal recently 26, however the Braves' shortstop heads into his sixth big league season in 2005. Contact problems keep Furcal from consistently exceeding $30, but given his excellent speed skills and the upside suggested by improving patience and a ground-fly ratio that dropped for the fourth straight year, expect him soon to cruise past an .800 OPS. Sim owners in particular should see if they can add Furcal, who appears ready to blossom as a top leadoff man, especially if his 23 second-half steals foretell his future performance.

3.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Cesar Izturis		670	193	.288	4	62	25	90	S
LA Dodgers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 24	B:S    T:R	25		24		15.8		22.1

Los Angeles wisely allowed Izturis to continue starting, developing his offense to an acceptable level to accompany his excellent fielding. Considering he won't turn 25 until February, jumped from a 2.88 #P/PA in 2001 to a 3.55 mark this year, and bounced his contact rate back to .90, he looks like the Dodger's long-term shortstop solution. Now, his inconsistent plate discipline could allow BA problems to recur. Izturis also isn't ready to contribute more than a few homers a year. However, he remains a solid option at the moment, particularly in 5x5 leagues, especially since he shouldn't cost over $20 in leagues with owners that remember his poor performances over the past couple years..

4.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jack Wilson		652	201	.308	11	59	8	82	S
PIT Pirates		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 26	B:R    T:R	23		23		34.5		39.6

The combination of a 52-point BA increase and an additional 94 AB shot Wilson's value skyward while a .324 September BA provided a strong finish to his age-26 season. Rumors of rewarding him with a two-year deal even makes some sense given Jose Castillo's move to second and Freddy Sanchez's health issues. I just wish we observed some skill growth from Wilson other than the contact rate improvement that boosted his average. Declining patience and unimpressive power potential almost allow me to ignore his 64 extra-base hits. At least his surge in doubles from 21 to 41 provides hope that Wilson will develop into a 20 HR threat, but with relatively little supporting his .300 average, expect a notable crash in value to the low teens despite the long-term upside suggesting by increasing his walk total each month of the season.

5.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Edgar Renteria		586	168	.287	10	72	17	84	S
STL Cardinals		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 29	B:R    T:R	21		21		15.1		24.3

Joining the Red Sox provides Renteria with the chance to post the best stats of his career. Yes, nothing in his skills suggests even a strong rebound towards his 2003 numbers as his plate discipline even fell back to nearly a career-worst level. However he still owns solid power and speed skills, so at least enjoying a better hitters' environment will improve these stats. I see little reason no to approach $25 in bidding here.

6.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Orlando Cabrera		618	163	.264	10	62	16	74	S
MON/BOS		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 29	B:R    T:R	14		15		8.2		16

A complete inability to hit the ball at home led to a .253/.289/.344 performance that destroyed his otherwise decent .274/.322/.423 road averages. Cabrera also suddenly started struggling against right-handers, however he held his skills and still owns 20-20 potential thanks to solid plate discipline. Joining Anaheim should provide him the necessary stability to contend for an All-Star berth, so while you shouldn't expect a great season, he could push $20 fairly easily.

7.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Royce Clayton		574	160	.279	8	54	10	95	S
COL Rockies		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 34	B:R    T:R	14		15		16.1		19.7

The strong rebound I expect from Alex Cintron involves the relatively quick displacement of one of Arizona's new middle infielders. Cintron's experience at shortstops and the additional year on Craig Counsell's contract place Clayton directly in Cintron's path of advancement. Departing Colorado for Arizona already leaves Clayton quite vulnerable to offensive losses even before we consider his increasing contact problems, limited speed skills, and career-worst 2.34 G-F. Even newfound patience won't compensate for a weak bat and the downside suggested by a second-half crash. Counting on Clayton as anything more than Counsell's eventual platoon partner, worth only endgame consideration, ranks as an obvious rookie mistake.

8.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Kazuo Matsui		460	125	.272	7	44	14	65	S
NY Mets		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 28	B:S    T:R	13		13		12.9		12.9

Mild back problems cost Matsui the majority of the second half, and both his power and plate discipline essentially disappeared when he managed to play. However, he still compiled .09 walk rate, .79 contact rate, 3.97 #P/PA, 1.50 G-F, and an 82% SB success rate in his first MLB season. Considering the improvement demonstrated by Hideki Matsui this summer, only health problems should keep Matsui from shooting towards $20. A .300 BA and 30 steals appear reasonable goals, which could push his value upward of $30. With strong plate discipline, baserunning acumen, and a potentially intriguing lineup slot, Matsui certainly ranks as a post-hype sleeper in almost any league.

9.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Adam Everett		384	105	.273	8	31	13	66	S
HOU Astros		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 27	B:R    T:R	11		12		6.1		12.3

A broken left wrist in early August effectively ended Everett's season two months early. While he remains a terrible option as a #2 hitter for Houston, surprisingly strong speed skills, a developing contact rate, and hints of power potential despite poor plate patience give Everett a shot at echoing Jack Wilson's breakout this summer. Of course, he won't help in sim leagues and remains vulnerable to collapse towards $5, but I also don't expect Everett to cost much more than $5 in most leagues. Consider rostering him anywhere under $10 as a bargain since a healthy Everett could approach $20 if given 450 AB.

10.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Khalil Greene		484	132	.273	15	65	4	67	S
SD Padres		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 24	B:R    T:R	11		12		23.5		20.7

Losing the last two weeks of the season to a broken right index finger likely resulted in Greene's second place finish in NL Rookie of the Year voting. He otherwise compiled excellent numbers for a freshman, demonstrating patience and power as he surged towards 20 homers in the second half. Nothing here suggests Greene won't develop into one of the top shortstops in the league, and even playing in Petco shouldn't prevent him from establishing $15 as his minimum annual contribution. He certainly qualifies as a bargain that price in any keeper league even though I suspect we won't see a real breakout sooner than 2006.

11.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Deivi Cruz		397	116	.292	7	55	1	46	S
SF Giants		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 31	B:R    T:R	10		10		13.1		16.9

Cruz seemed set to return as San Francisco's starter until the Giants' shockingly early signing of Omar Vizquel. Of course, while Cruz still possesses decent value to his power potential, his career-worst 3.10 #P/PA negates most of his admittedly limited value. I see no reason to consider him as more than Dollar Days' filler.

'04 Shortstop Week continues tomorrow, featuring National Leaguers with single-digit PDV.

Today's Fantasy Rx: With Nomar, Cristian Guzman, Omar Vizquel, and David Eckstein swapping leagues with Renteria and Orlando Cabrera, the key when targeting NL shortstops looks like grabbing someone with decent speed and plate discipline. Improving your BA/SB foundation makes more sense than attempting to roster one of the only shortstops likely to smack more than a few home runs. Keying on of the top players discussed above also could pay nice dividends given their relative youth and immediate upside.