Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome to Rotohelp's Annual Catcher Week! As in the past three years, having not yet found another good post-season wrap-up of each position that includes specific dollar values, we're again writing our own.

We've changed our player tables this year to offer a greater variety of data. Most significantly, Actual Value will no longer appear here due to the increasingly limited applicability of player values under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split for most fantasy participants. Draft Value, computed under a 70/30 split, of course will remain as the primary point of discussed for each player. Removing Actual Value from our tables required some restructuring, so we're not listing either our projected values or any expert league values this year.

Instead, in a nod to our expanding participation in baseball simulation games, we're providing both Runs Above Replacement(RAR) data we calculated, and Adjusted RAR, which modifies RAR given each player's range in Scoresheet baseball according to the specifications listed in the Scoresheet rules for computing defensive value on an offensive scale.

We hope that these changes will increase the utility of these reviews for our readers by encompassing data from a broader variety of fantasy baseball games.

Beginning today with catchers, I will spend the next several weeks reviewing every player who appeared in the majors during the 2004 season in ascending order from positions with the least depth, like catcher and shortstop, to those with the most variety of talent, such as outfielders, starting pitchers, and relief pitchers.

The articles will generally appear in the following order:
Monday: American Leaguers with Positive Draft Value.
Tuesday: American Leaguers without Positive Draft Value.
Wednesday: AL AAA players, AA players, and minor league free agents.
Thursday: National Leaguers with Positive Draft Value.
Friday: More National Leaguers with Positive Draft Value.
Saturday: National Leaguers without Positive Draft Value.
Sunday: NL AAA players, AA players, and minor league free agents.

Although we realize that not every fantasy participant requires all the specifics included in the following profiles, we hope to provide anyone interested with a valuable tool in analyzing past history to improve future performance.

American League Catchers with Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2004.
Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2004.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
RAR = Runs Above Replacement; Adjusted RAR = RAR modified to
consider a player's 2004 defensive rating in Scoresheet fantasy baseball.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

1.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ivan Rodriguez		527	176	.334	19	86	7	72	C
DET Tigers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 32	B:R    T:R	29		27		41.8		53.7

With no noteworthy skill degradation upon returning to the American League and a Tigers' team determined to supplement IRod's bat, he appears a good bet to continue earning over $20 in the near future. His second half slump mostly seems a product of a post-All-Star slump, and even his walk rate drop doesn't worry me due to his previous success despite limited patience. Although BA erosion could cost him a few bucks, Rodriguez otherwise remains a good bet around $25.

2.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Javy Lopez		579	183	.316	23	86	0	83	CD
BAL Orioles		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 33	B:R    T:R	24		23		39.4		37.2

Baltimore's reported plan to add a second decent catcher to keep Lopez's bat in the lineup on a nearly everyday basis looks promising, however batting an extra 100 times in each of the last two years might lead to fatigue problems for the 34-year-old catcher. Any slippage from his .83 contact rate back towards his .80 mark from 2003 also could drop his fantasy value under $20. While his overall skill set still depicts a catcher worth bids slightly above that level, Lopez looks like a risky investment if he remains in his current role due to his rather inconsistent performance history.

3.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jason Varitek		463	137	.296	18	73	10	67	C
BOS Red Sox		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 32	B:S    T:R	20		19		29.2		26

I highly doubt that Boston's refusal to give Varitek a no-trade clause and thus trigger similar clauses for nearly a half-dozen other Red Sox will keep the veteran from re-signing with the World Champions. Of course, losing him also wouldn't kill the franchise thanks to the depth provided by Doug Mirabelli and Kelly Shoppach, but Varitek possesses more offensive upside than almost any catcher in the game. He posted a career-best 4.09 #P/PA this year, making him extremely valuable in sim games, and even an approaching BA drop due to growing contact problems won't diminish his quantitative output. Varitek should echo most of these marks aside from those double-digit steals - even stealing half his 2004 total looks unlikely - making him a good buy if you can snag him near $15.

4.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Victor Martinez		520	147	.283	23	108	0	77	C
CLE Indians		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 25	B:S    T:R	17		17		27.1		25.1

While Martinez clearly tired towards the end of the year, he didn't slip below a .304 BA or .866 OPS from May through July; hopefully the full-time addition of Josh Bard will ease Martinez's workload, allowing him to echo the consistent .300 averages he posted in the minors. With no overt splits and the upside suggested by an impressive skill set featuring a .12 walk rate, .87 contact rate, and a .92 G-F, only health problems appear able to prevent Martinez challenging Joe Mauer for the next decade as the best offensive catcher in the game. Feel free to push $20 here since I don't envision Martinez dropping below $15 any time soon and he possesses the skills to bust past $30 before he hits his peak years.

5.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Brandon Inge		408	117	.287	13	64	5	43	C3O
DET Tigers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 27	B:R    T:R	13		12		11.5		13.5

A broken finger in June slowed Inge's development, but adding a decent contact rate to his respectable patience and solid ground-fly ratio unsurprisingly translated into a solid offensive year for the career .200 hitter. Inge now should enter spring training as a starter at third base or in center for Detroit, and remaining at either position on a regular basis could result in further development at the plate. Yes, I strongly doubt he'll break double-digit value next year due to a lower batting average, however a 15/60 season also appears quite reasonable given his development power, making him a viable pickup anywhere in single digits.

6.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jorge Posada		449	122	.272	21	81	1	72	C
NY Yankees		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 33	B:S    T:R	12		13		27.2		26.1

I don't know if Posada can maintain this level of production for many more years, especially after watching his ground-fly jump from 1.18 G-F to a career-worst 1.67 mark. However, he remains a patient, disciplined hitter with improving contact abilities. Posada suffers from minimal splits but only slumped to any great extent in September, when he still held a .364 OBP. While his reputation exceeds his value in most fantasy leagues, Posada still possesses the skills to contribute strong stats for a few more years.

7.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ben Molina		337	93	.276	10	54	0	36	C
ANA Angels		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 30	B:R    T:R	7		7		0.3		8.7

Molina again spent a couple weeks on the disabled list for two different injuries, so while he continues to hold a decent BA and good power numbers, his durability makes him a gamble on any roster. Of course, a 1.39 G-F certainly concerns me, and likely due to a combination of health problems and fatigue, Molina almost always slumps after the break. Definitely deal Molina by the break even if you roster him for a few bucks on draft day.

8.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Damian Miller		397	108	.272	9	58	0	39	C
OAK Athletics		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 34	B:R    T:R	7		7		4.1		8.7

Moving to Milwaukee enables Miller to fill a significant hole for the Brewers despite the downside of advancing age and increasing fatigue. Of course, Miller also remains a patient hitter who dropped his ground-fly ratio from 1.71 to 1.38 G-F this year, giving him a decent shot at matching his previous high of 13 homers. While I don't expect an All-Star season from Miller by any means, he looks like a good acquisitions for a few bucks.

9.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Miguel Olivo		301	70	.233	13	40	7	46	C
CHW/SEA		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 26	B:R    T:R	5		5		-4.9		-0.5

Departing Chicago for Seattle in the Freddy Garcia trade probably halves Olivo's fantasy value, yet several factors combine to give him solid sleeper status. Dan Wilson remains a solid him a viable backup, Olivo shouldn't suffer another bout of kidney stones, and he enters his third full big league season after only turning 26 last summer. With decent patience, surprising speed, and a respectable ground-fly rate, Olivo easily could bust over $10 even if he doesn't improve against right-handed pitchers. Consider him an obvious bargain anywhere around his 2004 value.

10.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Matt LeCroy		264	71	.269	9	39	0	25	C1D
MIN Twins		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 28	B:R    T:R	5		4		1.9		0.1

Only further injuries on the Twins will open much 2005 playing time for LeCroy. The other significant problem Minnesota's erstwhile DH faces is that his ground-fly rate abruptly rose to a career-worst 1.57 G-F, dramatically cutting his immediate power potential. Yes, the pulled oblique LeCroy suffered in April likely affected his swing, but with no starting job or an impressive skill set, only consider LeCroy an excellent sleeper if he slips under $5.

11.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Rod Barajas		358	89	.249	15	58	0	50	C
TEX Rangers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 29	B:R    T:R	5		5		-2		-1.1

Rumors of a multi-year contract here concern us as Barajas certainly lacks the upside of Gerald Laird. However, Barajas supported his power surge with another excellent .52 G-F, which combines with a respectable .82 contact rate and Ameriquest Field to virtually insure he reaches double-digit homers in 2005. Unfortunately, he also smacked 7 of these home runs in June and slipped to a .225/.261/.370 performance after the break, leaving him likely to cede at-bats to Laird down the stretch. Shop Barajas during his first hot streak if you managed to roster him for a couple bucks on draft day.

12.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Doug Mirabelli		160	45	.281	9	32	0	27	C
BOS Red Sox		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 33	B:R    T:R	5		4		10.4		10.4

Perhaps the safest endgame target among all catchers, Mirabelli never costs more than a buck or two and generally earns a small profit. Even his post-season exposure won't increase his price due to Jason Varitek's durability, yet Mirabelli remains guaranteed of a couple dozen starts as Tim Wakefield's personal catcher. The patience and surprisingly powerful backup backstop probably should atop anyone's list of Dollar Days' catcher options.

13.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Joe Mauer		107	33	.308	6	17	1	18	C
MIN Twins		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 21	B:L    T:R	4		4		10.3		10.3

Minnesota wisely allowed Mauer's rookie eligibility to expire, potentially saving the club significant savings over the rest of the decade. Of course, the far more relevant development is Mauer's likely move out from behind the plate due to his injuries, but even if he shifts to the infield, his outstanding bat will keep him ranked among baseball's best young hitters. He compiled an excellent debut skill set of a .10 walk rate, .87 contact rate, 1.29 G-F, and a 4.18 #P/PA despite a double-promotion from AA. While his .475 OPS against southpaws could lead to a platoon with Mike Redmond or Matt LeCroy, Mauer otherwise appears an excellent investment. Don't let him go anywhere under $10, and if he appears fully healthy during spring training, bidding to $15 even appears an acceptable gamble.

14.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Gregg Zaun		338	91	.269	6	36	0	46	C
TOR Blue Jays		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 33	B:S    T:R	4		5		4.5		-1.4

Zaun finally exceeded 300 at-bats in his tenth big league season, earning the Jays' starting job after injuries and ineffectiveness respectively sidelined Greg Myers and Kevin Cash. Now Zaun will return as the primary catcher for Toronto, pushing Guillermo Quiroz back to Syracuse for additional seasoning. While Zaun's skills still intrigue me and he won't hurt you for a couple bucks, decreasing power potential and second-half struggles suggest he belongs in a backup role, so don't count on him to exceed his 2004 performance under the best of circumstances.

15.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Toby Hall		404	103	.255	8	60	0	35	C
TB Devil Rays		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 28	B:R    T:R	4		4		-8.5		-1.9

Failed trade discussions with Colorado should result in Tampa keeping Hall at catcher despite his lack of offensive progress. He posted another OPS within a few points of .670 for the third straight season, and even reaching a .300 OBP for the second time doesn't make him an asset to the Rays' lineup. Hall truly needs a decent platoon partner, so until either Pete LaForest develops or Tampa adds a better backup than Kevin Cash, expect Hall to continue producing a few bucks of stats for a limited investment.

16.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jamie Burke		120	40	.333	0	15	0	22	C
CH White Sox		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 33	B:R    T:R	3		3		5.2		5.2

The overdue emergence of Burke in the majors may rank as the best outcome of the Miguel Olivo trade for Chicago. Burke posted an excellent .333/.386/.408 line as the backup to Ben Davis, and since the White Sox didn't add another catcher, Burke could reach 200 at-bats next year. As his strong plate discipline adequately compensates for his limited power potential, Burke at least won't hurt you for a minimal investment even if he only owns a couple bucks of upside.

17.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Benito Santiago		175	48	.274	6	23	1	15	C
KC Royals		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 39	B:R    T:R	3		3		0.6		0.6

Despite turning 40 next March, Santiago still owns a solid skill set and only a fluke broken hand kept him under 400 at-bats this year. His trade to Pittsburgh this week should guarantee another full season in the majors, so hopefully his extended leave this summer will result in a rested Santiago remaining a viable roto asset. Consider him a decent endgame gamble in any league.

18.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Adam Melhuse		214	55	.257	11	31	0	23	C
OAK Athletics		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 32	B:S    T:R	3		3		2.8		2.8

The acquisition of Jason Kendall should eliminate Melhuse's at-bats against southpaws while also limiting his action against right-handers. He also appears vulnerable to departing Oakland in the near future due to the extremely impressive rising crop of catching talent in the Athletics' organization. However, decent patience and power potential give Melhuse decent value in a limited role, so while I can't advise targeting him in the hope of a breakout season behind the durable Kendall, Melhuse remains a safe Dollar Days' option in standard AL leagues.

19.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jose Molina		203	53	.261	3	25	4	26	C
ANA Angels		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 29	B:R    T:R	3		3		-3		-2.2

An shockingly unexpected .333/.366/.538 April performance kept Molina's batting average over .250 until nearly the All-Star break and prevented him from losing significant playing time until September. Poor patience and limited upside still limit his fantasy potential, and with Jeff Mathis nearly prepared to displace Bengie Molina, expect Jose to accompany his brother out of the Angels' organization within the next year. I simply see no reason to risk a potential BA annihilation by rostering Molina in 2005.

20.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
John Buck		238	56	.235	12	30	1	36	C
KC Royals		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 24	B:R    T:R	2		2		-3.1		-3.1

Ignore the first few weeks of Buck's big league debut and instead focus on the .269/.298/.540 he posted in August and September. More importantly for roto players, Buck also smacked 11 homers and 29 RBI in those two months, numbers which track rather nicely with his .300/.368/.507 performance in 227 AB for AAA New Orleans(PCL) earlier this year to give him 280/30/100 upside. The primary return in the Carlos Beltran deal appears set in Kansas City for the rest of the decade, likely forcing Justin Huber to the infield and giving Buck the chance to reach double-digit value as soon as next season. While limiting your bids to the low single digits certainly seems a reasonable precaution given his BA downside, Buck's overall development and power potential also support pushing towards $10 if you need power.

21.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Kelly Stinnett		59	18	.305	3	7	0	10	C
KC Royals		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 34	B:R    T:R	1		1		2.7		1.7

With the Diamondbacks unlikely to carry both Chris Snyder and Koyie Hill on their Opening Day roster, Stinnett should win a job as Arizona's backup. Returning to the Diamondbacks gives him an excellent chance to maintain a few bucks of roto value due to his patience and significant power potential. Don't expect anything impressive from the journeyman, but Stinnett remains an excellent Dollar Days' target in standard leagues, providing decent pop without much BA downside.

22.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
John Flaherty		127	32	.252	6	16	0	11	C
NY Yankees		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 36	B:R    T:R	1		1		-0.9		-1.8

Nothing here suggests that Flaherty will fail to earn the dollar he'll cost you, but only a Jorge Posada injury will give him any chance of earning a significant profit. While the veteran at least owns decent power potential and an acceptable BA, employing him as more than roster filler offers little upside to any team.

23.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Josh Bard		19	8	.421	1	4	0	5	C
CLE Indians		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 26	B:S    T:R	1		0		4.6		4.6

Posting an unimpressive .263/.310/.404 performance in 156 AB for AAA Buffalo(IL) in a season marred by significant abdominal surgery still convinced the Indians that Bard belongs in the majors as Victor Martinez's backup. While I still like his long-term upside due to decent patience and power potential, Bard ranks as no more than a marginal Dollar Days' pick in standard leagues, although a trade to any team needing a solution at catcher could increase his value rather dramatically.

'04 Catcher Week continues tomorrow, featuring American Leaguers without PDV.

Today's Fantasy Rx: American League catchers again seem quite weak with only a half-dozen earning serious consideration for bids above $5 next year, a list that includes Joe Mauer and likely excludes Brandon Inge and Ben Molina. Almost all the top catchers also appear overpriced, and Jason Kendall could be overrated in a similar fashion by many owners. Even gambling on youngsters like Miguel Olivo and John Buck leaves you exposed to BA hits. While waiting to spend a couple bucks on two safe endgame options like Doug Mirabelli, Adam Melhuse, Gregg Zaun, or even Jamie Burke could leave you slightly short quantitatively, you at least should net a profit and can deploy your resources towards more productive players at other positions.