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October
7th
2004
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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2004 Pitching: Macrotrends
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

To begin our evaluation, here are the two tables that we'll use to analyze this season's pitching statistical trends:

AL	K/9	BB/9	H/9	HR/9	G-F
2000	6.3	3.7	9.7	1.2	1.22
2001	6.4	3.2	8.8	1.1	1.20
2002	6.3	3.3	9.2	1.1	1.16
2003	6.1	3.2	9.3	1.1	1.18
2004	6.5	3.3	9.4	1.2	1.17

NL	K/9	BB/9	H/9	HR/9	G-F
2000	6.7	3.8	9.2	1.2	1.23
2001	7.0	3.3	9.0	1.2	1.21
2002	6.8	3.5	8.8	1.0	1.26
2003	6.5	3.4	9.0	1.1	1.29
2004	6.7	3.4	9.1	1.1	1.25


AL	IP	W	S	K	ERA	WHIP
2000	20141	1143	551	14033	4.91	1.49
2001	20213	1138	589	14474	4.47	1.33
2002	20160	1129	558	14020	4.46	1.38
2003	20219	1123	538	13735	4.53	1.39
2004	20248	1134	533	14505	4.63	1.42

NL	IP	W	S	K	ERA	WHIP
2000	23103	1285	627	17323	4.63	1.45
2001	23074	1290	621	17930	4.36	1.37
2002	23098	1296	666	17374	4.11	1.37
2003	23105	1306	661	17066	4.27	1.38
2004	23146	1294	697	17323	4.30	1.39


Today's Fantasy Rx: My predictions for today's games(all times CDT):

3:00 on ESPN: Houston@Atlanta
7:00 on Fox: Los Angeles@St. Louis

Roy Oswalt should give Houston an insurmountable lead as they attempt to continue their home winning streak on Saturday while St. Louis could further bury Los Angeles after yesterday's homer binge.

As in past seasons, our predictions of which team will win each series differ from which team we hope will win, but this year our preferences largely match our predictions. With the Cubs and Barry Bonds both missing the playoffs, we're rooting for the teams with the least amount of recent post-season success. The only NL playoff team that hasn't won a World Series since 1982 is Houston, and the only AL playoff team that hasn't won a World Series since 1989 is Boston. Minnesota and Los Angeles also intrigue us even if Ron Gardenhire doesn't deserve to manage T-Ball team, and of those four teams, the only one we don't expect to advance is Los Angeles.


Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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