Today's Fantasy Rx

Today I'm reviewing pitchers who, over the past three years, saw their ERA jump at least 1.50 from August to September. We only looked at pitchers who compiled at least a total of 30 IP in both months over the past three years. They also must show an increase in ERA from August to September while registering at least 10 IP in both months in each of the last three years.

Jason Jennings, RH Starter, COL: +2.21 ERA 
Yearly ERA increase between August and September:
2001: 7.64; 2002: 1.25; 2003: 0.16.
01-03	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
August	14/14	85	81/11	57:36	8-5/0	4.13
Sept.	12/12	65.1	87/10	36:33	3-4/0	6.34

04AUG	4/4	23	28/5	18:14	1-3/0	7.04	

Although his 22043 current QA log isn't awful, the former Rookie of the Year owns little fantasy potential in any league. He strikes out few batters, Colorado's unimpressive offense provides minimal run support, and poor hit, homer, and walk rates lead to qualitative stats that can cost you several standings points. Upcoming starts in Florida and San Diego may not hurt you, however aside from two potential outings against Arizona, Jennings only faces playoff contenders over the balance of the season. The downside inherent in these starts makes him worthless in any standard league, so deal or cut him immediately in favor of any NL pitcher with at least a chance of contributing to your roto team.

Curt Schilling, RH Starter, BOS: +2.14 ERA 
Yearly ERA increase between August and September:
2001: 1.21; 2002: 3.41; 2003: 0.70.
01-03	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
August	19/19	139.1	112/13	173:21	9-5/0	2.39
Sept.	13/14	93.1	93/13	109:16	5-3/0	4.53

04AUG	5/5	35.1	31/6	28:5	4-1/0	3.06

A 7.9 K/9 stands out as a worrisome mark for the 37-year-old ace, especially since he hasn't slipped under a 10.3 mark since 2000. Of course, his overall performance this season makes him a Cy Young contender, and his 42254 current QA log demonstrates as much fantasy potential as downside. Schilling at least benefits from a very favorable schedule down the stretch. He doubles next week at home against playoff contenders Anaheim and Texas, then enjoys two soft weeks facing Seattle and Tampa before another home double against Baltimore and New York. If Boston needs an extra win at the beginning of October, Schilling will oppose the Orioles on the road. As only the start against the Yankees particularly worries me, I see little reason to avoid adding him anywhere you need a starting pitcher with four-category upside. Despite the potential for a September slump, I still recommend you seek to acquire Schilling.

Jason Johnson, RH Starter, DET: +1.89 ERA 
Yearly ERA increase between August and September:
2001: 0.78; 2002: 0.35; 2003: 4.14.
01-03	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
August	17/17	103.1	117/12	67:40	4-8/0	4.27
Sept.	13/13	76	92/14	52:43	1-6/0	6.16

04AUG	4/4	21	28/2	9:9	0-3/0	6.00

Johnson's command largely vanished at mid-season as his problems over the last six weeks coincided with Detroit's fall towards the bottom of the AL standings. A 34230 current QA log indicates only marginal upside, so even the solid run support provided by the shockingly impressive Tigers' offense doesn't make him likely to win more than a couple more games. Fortunately, after opposing the Red Sox today, Johnson should face Kansas City twice, but subsequent starts against Minnesota, Cleveland twice, Baltimore, and Tampa might hurt given the respectable offenses fielded by his likely opponents. While you still could keep Johnson if you need every available win and can afford some qualitative damage, I just don't see much fantasy potential in his current skills. At least shop him to see if Johnson's consistent mediocrity intrigues any of your competitors.

Internet Challenge

With our two roster expansions, we're attempting to maximize our category upside. We can gain the most ground in saves, although we're happy with our relief corps. However, Dustin Hermanson costs very little and offers significant roto potential, making him a solid pickup here.

Since taking Hermanson lets us run an extra big bat on offense, we're taking Albert Pujols, who owns the strongest skill-supported stats in the game aside from Barry Bonds. Pujols also enjoys a better schedule, and despite persistent injury problems, should see more playing time than Bonds barring a very unlikely DL trip.

SP(6)
Pedro Martinez: Sat:DET(J.Bonderman)
Mike Mussina: Sun:@TOR(M.Batista)
Tim Hudson: Sat:TB(D.Brazelton)
Jason Schmidt: Sat:ATL(P.Byrd?)
Roy Oswalt: Fri:@CHC(K.Wood)
Kerry Wood: Fri:HOU(R.Oswalt)
Kevin Brown: Sat:@TOR(T.Lilly)
Jeremy Affeldt: 3 Road Games at SEA.
Dustin Hermanson: 3 Road Games at ATL.

No starts: Schilling, Randy, J.Vazquez, Beckett.

Pedro, Hudson, and Wood are relatively easy calls to accompany Affeldt and Hermanson. Schmidt seems like the safest bet since he at least shouldn't hurt us.

Pujols hits the lineup for Pierre, who joins Piazza, Fullmer, Crede, Kaz Matsui, and Podsednik on our bench.

The Umpire Hunter(19th lg; 479th overall)
Week 21b: August 27-August 29

C	Jason Varitek		680 
C	Victor Martinez		450
1B	Lyle Overbay		400
1B	Mark Teixeira		760
2B	Alfonso Soriano		1930
2B	Mark Loretta		820 
3B	Scott Rolen		1460 
3B	Hank Blalock		850
SS	Alex Rodriguez		2010 
SS	Alex Cintron		450 
OF	Carlos Beltran		1760
OF	Vernon Wells		1150
OF	Carl Crawford		1040 
OF	Brad Wilkerson		690
OF	Adam Dunn		690
OF	Miguel Cabrera		570 
DH	Albert Pujols		1840
DH	Orlando Hudson		550

SP	Pedro Martinez		1800 
SP	Tim Hudson		1320 
SP	Jason Schmidt		1240  
SP	Kerry Wood		1190
SP	Jeremy Affeldt		650
SP	Dustin Hermanson		540
RP	Eric Gagne		1890
RP	Octavio Dotel		1250
RP	Danny Kolb		940 
RP	Joe Nathan		720 

Total Salary for Week 21b: 	29640

Today's Fantasy Rx: Non-closing NL relievers currently earning double-digit value include Guillermo Mota, Akinori Otsuka, Luis Ayala, Scott Linebrink, and Julian Tavarez, although the latter will miss at least a week in September due to his recent suspension. Adding any of them, especially if you can dump a questionable starter, still should provide a noticeable qualitative boosts with nearly six weeks left in the season.