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August
14th
2004
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
Rotohelp
2004 NL LPR through 19 Weeks
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome to our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method to identify highly skilled and/or consistently effective pitchers. While we haven't changed this system since the second half of last season, feel free to refer here for a complete description of the codes. We've included the five most recent 2004 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through August 11th. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so don't roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors.


1
2A - Brad Penny(23540)
3ABCXYZ - Roy Oswalt(35443)
3ABCXZ - Randy Johnson(45435)
ACX - Ben Sheets(43344)
BX - Livan Hernandez(54435)
X - Noah Lowry(03553)

The promotions of Oswalt and Lowry to this level without losing anyone give us a half-dozen pitchers who appear capable of anchoring a team in any league. Yes, Lowry is an apparently negligible talent compared to the others, but his skill set and minor league success given me definite hope that he can remain a top starter.

23abcxyz - John Smoltz(5543352344)
2abcxyz - Eric Gagne(5445334333)
abxy - Julian Tavarez(2555433534)
acx - Blaine Neal(3350234443)
Ay - Glendon Rusch(3334342)
ax - Kiko Calero(4343445542)
ax - Ryan Madson(4343232424)
a - Orber Moreno(0545245242)

While the lowest three relievers here remain on the disabled list, Tavarez and Neal both merit recognition for their success as parts of very deep bullpens. Neither pitcher arguably is better than the fourth best reliever on his respective team, however both deserves serious consideration from owners looking for qualitative stability in standard leagues. Rusch also remains quite effective and can help most teams.


2
3CXZ - Kevin Millwood(35340)
BCYZ - Mark Prior(05050)

3abcxyz - LaTroy Hawkins(1424434344)
3abcxyz - Billy Wagner(4534444524)
3byz - Joe Borowski(2433341342)
abcxyz - Mike Koplove(2514545543)
abx - Guillermo Mota(1253254443)
bcz - Tim Spooneybarger
byz - Rheal Cormier(3522330545)
by - Javier Lopez(3325253043)


3
ABCXZ - Odalis Perez(24045)
ACZ - Matt Morris(40404)
C - Woody Williams(34235)

abcxyz - Jason Isringhausen(3543444554)
cxz - Steve Reed(4033353443)
by - Jay Witasick(1153123445)
cz - Robb Nen


A
BCXY - Roger Clemens(52443)
BCX - Andy Pettitte(43544)
BCY - Jason Schmidt(53452)
BCZ - Matt Clement(42333)
XYz - Carlos Zambrano(33445)
CX - Jake Peavy(23355)
XZ - Oliver Perez(44344)
XZ - Jeff Weaver(25444)
X - Joe Kennedy(34342)
X - Jason Marquis(13434)
y - Rocky Biddle(44400)
Kerry Wood(34342)
Dontrelle Willis(45534)
Cory Lidle(50113)

Zambrano, Weaver, Marquis, and Biddle slammed up the rankings while only Maddux and Pavano dropped down. Zambrano, Weaver, and Peavy also merit the most attention here right now given their intriguing QA trends. Of course, Schmidt and Clemens remain the NL Cy Young favorites, but the youngsters' less heralded success makes them better targets in most leagues.


B
C - Wade Miller(04442)
Y - Brandon Webb(23312)
Y - Josh Beckett(00003)
x - Jeff Fassero(34230)
Andrew Good(00)
Michael Tejera(00)

Yax - Darren Dreifort(5425534542)
Yax - Juan Cruz(4454435344)
x - Amaury Telemaco(4030344423)
y - Adam Bernero(3334340221)
Jim Brower(4220222543)
Todd Van Poppel(3233143350)


C
Y - Kip Wells(44134)
Z - Greg Maddux(43532)
Z - A.J. Burnett(43225)
Z - John Patterson(00334)
Z - Brian Lawrence(24241)
Al Leiter(54340)
David Wells(32343)
Adam Eaton(13023)
Casey Fossum(53010)


X
Z - Vicente Padilla(32335)
c - Carl Pavano(30332)

Poor weeks from Chris Carpenter and Tom Glavine send them off the rankings for the first time in months, and neither Pavano nor Padilla appear particularly impressive right now.


Y
Z - Randy Wolf(03344)
Tony Armas, Jr.(03140)

Dustin Hermanson(5530)


a
x - Darren Oliver(10030)
x - Elmer Dessens(00000)
Wilson Alvarez(53343)

bcxy - Braden Looper(4443334242)
bcxz - Chris Reitsma(4443454543)
bcxz - Ray King(4140344443)
bcxz - Luis Vizcaino(5152235345)
bxyz - Danny Kolb(1544525054)
bcx - Mike Lincoln(4245453341)
bxy - Luis Ayala(4454334344)
bxy - Kyle Farnsworth(3545343130)
cxz - Trevor Hoffman(5553535420)
cxz - Billy Koch(5505243233)
cxz - Armando Almanza(334444031)
cyz - Antonio Alfonseca(3504541232)
bx - Brad Lidge(3544445344)
bx - Armando Benitez(3225541554)
by - Jose Valverde(3132442434)
cx - Danny Graves(4523442345)
cx - Steve Kline(5423142345)
cy - Brian Fuentes(3515234442)
cz - Mike Fetters(3440342045)
xz - Mike DeJean(5534344454)

DeJean looks great since joining the Mets, and the turnover in the New York pen probably makes him the logical fallback in case of a Looper injury. He even could help qualitatively in standard leagues, so consider investigating DeJean's availability if you have room for another reliever.

c - Randy Choate(4333342433)
c - Brian Boehringer(2433434431)
x - Mike Gonzalez(5554354545)
x - Scott Linebrink(4435544533)
x - Akinori Otsuka(5444542455)
x - T.J. Tucker(3332424454)
x - Mike Adams(4434444324)
x - Jon Leicester(4253444334)
x - Joe Horgan(3433433414)
x - Salomon Torres(4444252454)
x - Tommy Phelps(3352455450)
y - Brian Meadows(4534503323)
y - Oscar Villarreal(1544430332)
Chad Harville(2455245455)
Kirk Bullinger(5403414434)
John Grabow(3254453402)
Dan Miceli(2434234223)

Tucker and Harville rejoin this week, although neither appears nearly as good a gamble as Gonzalez, Linebrink, or even Leicester or Torres.


b
cxyz - Tim Worrell(4433333242)
cxz - Mike Remlinger(3234345335)
cy - Matt Herges(2334424352)
cz - Roberto Hernandez(5333135324)
cz - Joey Eischen(35)
cz - Paul Shuey
cz - Mike Crudale
yz - Matt Mantei(4024421333)
c - Scott Strickland
y - Rod Beck(3432151434)
y - Tom Martin(3431232343)
Kevin Gryboski(3334404535)
Dave Burba(4343345442)
Cal Eldred(4322433453)
Scott Service(3135442331)
Jason Simontacchi(212234)
Will Cunnane(341043333)
Troy Brohawn


c
Zach Day(21043)

yz - Ricky Stone(4223433445)
z - Ricky Bottalico(3234143354)
z - Todd Jones(5213322332)
z - Eddie Oropesa(3040332450)
z - Dave Coggin
z - Chad Paronto
z - Al Reyes
Sun-Woo Kim(5351422332)
John Riedling(4223303231)
Travis Driskill(232)
Toby Borland(5222512431)


x
Matt Wise(4335334232)
Rudy Seanez(3450333354)
Brian Bruney(4234234533)
Chad Fox(4454433330)


y
Mike Stanton(5304455432)
John Franco(0322532303)
Brooks Kieschnick(3324103404)
Grant Roberts(1232)
John Foster
Dave Veres


z
Jose Mesa(5532454231)
Vladimir Nunez(1413324320)
Dave Elder
Dan Reichert
Chad Zerbe


NL starters I recommend despite their failure to appear above include Kris Benson(34325), Paul Byrd(54243), Chris Capuano(42534), Doug Davis(33430), Mike Hampton(23343), Aaron Harang(23343), Sterling Hitchcock(43), Jose Lima(13344), Pete Munro(45303), Brett Myers(13355), John Thomson(43545), and Jaret Wright(44541).

Other decent relievers include Greg Aquino, Nate Bump, Giovanni Carrara, Jason Christiansen, Chad Cordero, Mike Gallo, Kent Mercker, Phil Norton, Brian Powell, Felix Rodriguez, and Duaner Sanchez.


1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2004.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2003.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2002.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Note: Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who reached both 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 relief outings


Tomorrow, like every Sunday during the season, we'll post our preview of the coming week's games and our CDM challenge lineups.


Today's Fantasy Rx: We haven't seen three relatively unknown pitchers achieve the top NL LPR ranking in one week this season until now, and all three still might be available in many leagues. Lowry is an obvious pick-up given his four-category upside, but Tavarez and Neal also can help given their solid skills. Tavarez even could see some save opportunities as Izzy's primary set-up man, and while Neal remains in middle relief, feel free to consider him one of the elite middle relievers in the league until further notice.


Click here to read the previous article.

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