Today's Fantasy Rx

I'm going to spend the first four days of this week on players whose August performances historically differ dramatically from their stats in July. To qualify for consideration, a position player must have at least 100 AB in both July and August over the last three years while showing a change, positive or negative, of .050 BA and .100 OPS between the two months. They also must show either an improvement or decline in both BA and OPS from July to August while registering at least 25 at-bats in both months in each of the last three years.

Today we'll focus on improving hitters, tomorrow will be declining hitters, and then we'll spend the following two days on improving and then declining pitchers.

Aubrey Huff qualified for today's list strictly due to a rebound from his placement on last month's Squashed JulyFlys list. Instead of discussing him in detail again, I'll briefly summarize my current recommendations before continuing with new players.

Aubrey Huff, 3B/DH/1B, TB: +.072 BA/+.199 OPS. June: acquire
Given he normally crushes the ball in the second half, I see no reason why Huff not only can maintain his .302/.378/.581 July performance for another week, but he likely can hold a .900+ OPS for the balance of the season. His skills mostly appear in line with his 2003 marks other demonstrating welcome improvement in his walk rate. The 27-year-old remains among the top unheralded hitting threats in the game, and he merits strong consideration from any owners seeking offensive improvement.
July: target.

Shawn Green, 1B, : +.063 BA; +.231 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between July and August:
2001: .085/.261; 2002: .050/.341; 2003: .054/.080.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
July	309	33:60	.265/.340/.485
August	299	53:42	.328/.427/.629

04JUL	81	4:11	.296/.356/.543		

A 2.05 G-F looks like the glaring problem in Green's skill set, sabotaging his otherwise respective power numbers. Yes, he posted a 1.78 mark in 2002, when he managed a .943 OPS, and despite improving to a 1.53 G-F last year he still fell to a .815 OPS, however between his current skills and lingering health questions, I don't see significant upside here. Of course, Green also remains a patient hitter in a surprisingly respectable lineup, and the 31-year-old's performance suggests the potential for a very strong second half. Given his objectively low fantasy value, feel free to target Green since he at least owns the basic skills necessary for an otherwise unexpected rebound.

Barry Bonds, OF, SF: +.054 BA; +.221 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between July and August:
2001: .048/.281; 2002: .082/.325; 2003: .037/.072.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
July	203	71:30	.355/.525/.788
August	198	88:28	.409/.590/.944

04JUL	53	31:5	.396/.616/.755	

Expecting anyone to average nearly a base per at-bat seems ridiculous, but Bonds managed that feat during the past three Augusts. Given his skills, not to mention very few games against great pitching next month, I see no reason why he can't guarantee a fourth straight MVP award by smacking double-digit homers in August regardless of his walk totals, especially since he registered 10 homers in 53 April at-bats this season. If you need both power and BA boosts, look to acquire Bonds before he posts another set of historic August averages.

Aramis Ramirez, 3B, CHC: +.052 BA; +.213 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between July and August:
2001: .007/.107; 2002: .100/.304; 2003: .043/.207.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
July	315	10:50	.248/.269/.457
August	310	26:41	.300/.365/.574

04JUL	39	3:7	.282/.333/.641	

Ramirez suffered a strained groin at the beginning of the month and only began starting regularly about a week ago. He doesn't own great skills right now, however his overall production ranks him among the best third basemen in the game. Fortunately, he also possesses the power potential necessary to continue performing at this level through August. Of course, his stats thus far in 2004 likely won't make him a particularly inexpensive target, but teams needing a consistent offensive threat at third should seek to add Ramirez to their lineup.

Joe Randa, 3B, KC: +.083 BA; +.187 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between July and August:
2001: .020/.127; 2002: .097/.075; 2003: .071/.205.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
July	221	17:31	.222/.291/.326
August	298	23:39	.305/.354/.450

04JUL	7	1:0	.286/.375/.286	

After missing the last month due to knee surgery, Randa now only should play a few more games for the Royals before he heads to a contender, likely as a reserve. While he didn't own poor skills prior to his injury, he simply hasn't demonstrated significant power potential or much quantitative upside. Moving out of a starting role probably renders Randa nearly useless to fantasy teams, so his current owners need to deal him immediately. Yes, he might remain with Kansas City as a placeholder until September for Mark Teahen, but I suspect Randa can help more as trade bait than as an active member of your offense.

Albert Pujols, 1B, STL: +.071 BA; +.186 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between July and August:
2001: .134/.336; 2002: .063/.081; 2003: .018/.157.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
July	282	38:41	.294/.389/.546
August	318	37:38	.365/.432/.689

04JUL	80	9:6	.413/.467/.813	

Pujols owns the best plate discipline of his career despite a career-low 3.63 #P/PA. Of course his overall skill set still compares favorably to almost any batter in the game, and he should coast to his fourth Top 4 MVP finish in his four-year career. Batting in the middle of Edgar Renteria, Scott Rolen, and Jim Edmonds insures that any improvement from Pujols could allow his quantitative totals to skyrocket, making him particularly valuable to roto owners. His AB advantage over Bonds even makes Pujols a better fantasy player in most leagues. If you can afford the reasonably exorbitant asking price, definitely attempt to acquire the Cardinals' future Gold Glove first baseman to anchor your offense.

Bernie Williams, OF, NYY: +.060 BA; +.141 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between July and August:
2001: .105/.197; 2002: .034/.033; 2003: .053/.259.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
July	287	37:36	.289/.368/.422
August	332	43:45	.349/.422/.509

04JUL	83	18:16	.181/.327/.301	

Since Williams' skills remain strong almost across the board, including a career-best 1.24 G-F, only the erosion of his contact rate from .86 to .82 worries me at all. I expect he at least will demonstrate improved power even if he can't manage more than a respectable average. Of course, spending most games at the top of the Yankees' order reduces his RBI opportunities, but the accompanying increase in his runs thankfully compensates for that loss in 5x5 leagues. He probably will experience his normal September slump, so although upgrading on Williams is a good idea, wait as long as possible to make a move since he should produce a strong month of stats in August.

Today's Fantasy Rx: With owners unlikely to make strong playoff runs usually willing to dump at this point in the season, make a run at adding a top hitter to your team, especially if the owner of Bonds or Pujols overspent for a stud position player. We generally recommend giving up prospects or even quality young players for significant multi-category improvement that can both push your team up the standings and deprive your competitors of talent they otherwise might acquire.