Today's Fantasy Rx

To qualify for consideration, a position player must have at least 300 AB in both halves over the last three years while showing a change, positive or negative, of .025 BA and .050 OPS between the two halves. They also must show either an improvement or decline in both BA and OPS from the first half to the second half while registering at least 75 at-bats in both halves of each of the last three years.

Roger Cedeno, OF, STL: +.032 BA; +.081 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between the 1st & 2nd Half:
2001: .042/.133; 2002: .030/.065; 2003: .030/.249.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
1st H	842	69:147	.259/.316/.347
2nd H	676	47:114	.291/.337/.407

04 1st	72	7:10	.278/.338/.403	

While he isn't running often this season, Cedeno doesn't even turn 30 for another month, so he expecting him to swipe at least a half-dozen bases over the next couple months appears reasonable. LaRussa's decision to spot start Cedeno against right-handers also reduces his BA downside, and his combination of an improved contact rate, higher groundball rate, and decreasing patience increases his overall quantitative potential. Of course, he probably will finish 2004 under $5, but the Cardinals' uncertain left field situation at least gives Cedeno the chance to approach double-digit value if he finds regular playing time.

Scott Spiezio, 3B, SEA: +.036 BA; +.079 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between the 1st & 2nd Half:
2001: .061/.134; 2002: .038/.112; 2003: .014/.011.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
1st H	702	82:97	.255/.334/.409
2nd H	767	65:86	.291/.349/.473

04 1st	248	24:45	.218/.292/.379	

Soft tissue damage in Spiezio's back cost him the first two weeks of the season, and while he pounded the ball over the rest of April, he hasn't exceeded a .629 OPS in any of the last three months. He continues to struggles against right-handers and southpaws while excelling during neither home nor away games. However, he also owns career-best marks of a 3.74 #P/PA and a .53 G-F, so we can trace his struggles to a .82 contact rate, his worst mark since 2000, Spiezio's last year as a part-time player. Seattle's rebuilding efforts also could result in him losing at-bats over the balance of the season, but the possible playing time decrease only makes him a more attractive target at this time. I still have significant faith in the ability of the 31-year-old to rebound and earn his salary over the next few seasons, so teams struggling to find a solid cornerman or utility player should seek Spiezio in trade talks.

Magglio Ordonez, OF, CHW: +.033 BA; +.077 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between the 1st & 2nd Half:
2001: .017/.007; 2002: .033/.148; 2003: .051/.080.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
1st H	967	103:139	.299/.369/.535
2nd H	822	77:81	.332/.395/.586

04 1st	179	14:19	.302/.357/.503	

Since he returned from knee surgery over a week ago, can DH every day with Frank Thomas now injured, Ordonez, and no longer appears a likely trade candidate given Chicago's offensive needs, Ordonez seems like a good sleeper to target. Of course, losing Thomas also reduces Ordonez's quantitative upside, and his knee problems give us little reason to expect many steals this year. His 3.48 #P/PA, .08 walk rate, and 1.45 G-F also rank as his worst marks since at least 1999, however a .89 contact rate at least indicates a high likelihood that Ordonez can hold a .300 BA. While valuing him at more than $30 still seems a mistake, Ordonez remains a top fantasy hitter who should improve over the balance of the season.

Kenny Lofton, OF, NYY: +.029 BA; +.068 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between the 1st & 2nd Half:
2001: .046/.131; 2002: .018/.067; 2003: .031/.032.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
1st H	855	90:102	.260/.331/.400
2nd H	741	75:91	.289/.354/.445

04 1st	118	16:8	.297/.378/.449	

Lofton's value over the next few months depends on either the general health of the Yankees or where New York deals him. If he stays put, I don't envision Lofton earning more than a few more bucks given his place in a 1B/OF/DH rotation that includes the three All-Stars starters, Bernie Williams, and part-time players Tony Clark and Ruben Sierra. However, if dealt somewhere like Philadelphia, Lofton again could flourish, but since the Yankees appear more likely to keep him as injury insurance, only target him as a fifth outfielder with mildly intriguing upside.

Aubrey Huff, , TB: +.030 BA; +.064 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between the 1st & 2nd Half:
2001: .023/.022; 2002: .052/.121; 2003: .016/.050.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
1st H	714	55:111	.279/.335/.471
2nd H	787	58:96	.309/.354/.516

04 1st	334	34:33	.269/.340/.425	

As a .10 walk rate and .90 contact rate indicate Huff certainly still possesses the skills necessary to hit .300, I wouldn't be surprised if he posts the .330+ BA over the balance of 2004 necessary for him to finish the year near his previous averages. Jumping from 1.33 to a 1.50 G-F only indicates a mild drop in power potential, and the quantitative boost he receives from Tampa's improved lineup should compensate for him failing to hit 30 homers. Of course, his mediocre numbers might convince some owners that the 27-year-old posted a fluke season last year, and you should definitely take advantage of any such error. At least attempt to acquire Huff in every league since his performance in July and September should more than offset a likely August slump.

Gabe Kapler, OF, BOS: +.030 BA; +.060 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between the 1st & 2nd Half:
2001: .036/.024; 2002: .036/.127; 2003: .013/.034.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
1st H	514	50:88	.257/.320/.393
2nd H	509	49:76	.287/.351/.422

04 1st	139	9:22	.266/.313/.367	

Although the 28-year-old still displays the echoes of a once-impressive skill set, his window to a career as a big league starter closes a little more every year. Kapler's 3.73 #P/PA and 1.41 G-F represent an improvement over his 2003 marks, but he no longer seems to possess the patience necessary to maintain the .275/.350/.425 line he needs to post to earn more playing time. While he may total a half-dozen homers and steals this season, his mediocre average and minimal overall quantitative contribution leaves him with more than a few bucks of value at the end of an increasingly deep bench. However, his poor performance and likely limited upside conversely makes him an inexpensive player to acquire in deeper leagues. Kapler still can crush many left-handers and certainly won't hurt you as a fifth outfielder, so strongly consider adding him you own an extra outfield or reserve spot.

David Eckstein, SS, ANA: +.040 BA; +.052 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between the 1st & 2nd Half:
2001: .018/.017; 2002: .044/.065; 2003: .047/.071.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
1st H	914	79:85	.261/.341/.346
2nd H	728	45:64	.301/.361/.378

04 1st	280	17:25	.293/.349/.346	

Yes, Eckstein could lose his job if Anaheim deals for Nomar, but Anaheim should realize that their former sparkplug still possesses solid leadoff skills. The 29-year-old should blow past his 2004 value on his way to approaching the $25 season he posted two years ago. Of course, Eckstein's diminishing speed means he'll finish closer to $20, especially since he should suffer another September slump, however his contribution in BA and Runs makes him a very useful player in 5x5 leagues. Anyone even seeking just a strong BA boost should seek to acquire Eckstein since his general mediocrity since the Angels' World Series should result in a low trade cost.

Bobby Abreu, OF, PHI: +.028 BA; +.050 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS increase between the 1st & 2nd Half:
2001: .014/.032; 2002: .011/.045; 2003: .061/.066.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
1st H	935	186:208	.286/.402/.491
2nd H	802	133:172	.314/.409/.534

04 1st	304	72:63	.306/.440/.569	

Expecting Abreu to improve on his All-Star performance seems foolish, however I see nothing that indicates he isn't headed for a career-year. A 4.31 #P/PA, .24 walk rate, 1.23 G-F, .79 contact rate, and even his 95% SB success rate all appear in line with his previous best marks. The Phillies' lineup remains largely loaded, leaving Abreu paired next to another MVP candidate in Jim Thome, and CB Park looks like a great place for hitters thus far. With the 30-year-old Abreu in his prime and able to take advantage of these helpful factors, not mention the excellent chance that he at least will maintain his current skills, he should rank near the top of any contender's list of players to acquire for the second half.

Internet Challenge

SP(6)
Pedro Martinez: Fri:@ANA(K.Escobar)
Curt Schilling: Sun:@ANA(J.Lackey)
Mike Mussina: Sun:@DET(N.Robertson)
Roy Halladay: Fri:@TEX(R.Drese)
Javier Vazquez: Fri:@DET(M.Maroth)
Jason Schmidt: Sat:@COL(A.Cook)
Roy Oswalt: Sat:SD(D.Wells)
Kerry Wood: Sun:MIL(C.Capuano)

No starts: Randy, T.Hudson, K.Brown, Beckett, & Affeldt.

Schilling's health questions and Schmidt's Coors start leave us with exactly six safe starts.

Wells stays benched and we have no cap room for Pierre. Blalock, Fullmer, & Loretta return to our lineup, forcing Piazza, Orlando Hudson, and Crede to the bench. Perhaps Hudson will rebound in Texas, but the respective recent performances of these players leads to exercise caution in deploying him.

The Umpire Hunter(19th lg; 546th overall)
Week 15b: July 16-18

C	Jason Varitek		680 
C	Victor Martinez		450
1B	Lyle Overbay		400
1B	Mark Teixeira		760
2B	Alfonso Soriano		1930
2B	Mark Loretta		820 
3B	Scott Rolen		1460 
3B	Hank Blalock		850
SS	Alex Rodriguez		2010 
SS	Kazuo Matsui		750
OF	Carlos Beltran		1760 
OF	Carl Crawford		1040 
OF	Scott Podsednik		980
OF	Brad Wilkerson		690 
OF	Adam Dunn		690
OF	Miguel Cabrera		570 
DH	Brad Fullmer		700
DH	Alex Cintron		450

SP	Pedro Martinez		1800 
SP	Mike Mussina		1380
SP	Roy Halladay		1350 
SP	Javier Vazquez		1280  
SP	Roy Oswalt		1200
SP	Kerry Wood		1190
RP	Eric Gagne		1890
RP	Octavio Dotel		1250
RP	Danny Kolb		940
RP	Matt Herges		670

Total Salary for Week 15b: 	28960

Today's Fantasy Rx: Everyone discussed today save Abreu and possibly Huff qualifies as an obvious sleeper, especially in leagues that don't allow you to keep players dealt to the other league. Cedeno, Lofton, and Kapler all still possess solid upsides if they somehow find full-time jobs. Eckstein currently appears vulnerable to a Nomar trade but likely will excel in the second half, and with Spiezio and Ordonez both fully healthy, both could produce helpful numbers, particularly Ordonez, who should thrive even without Frank Thomas in the lineup.