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June
19th
2004
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
Rotohelp
2004 NL LPR through 11 Weeks
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome to our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method to identify highly skilled and/or consistently effective pitchers. While we haven't changed this system since the second half of last season, feel free to refer here for a complete description of the codes. We've included the five most recent 2004 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through June 16th. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so don't roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors.


1
2AX - Brad Penny(54234)
3ABCXZ - Randy Johnson(44334)
3ABCXZ - Odalis Perez(55354)
ABCY - Jason Schmidt(54533)
ABX - Livan Hernandez(43341)
ACX - Ben Sheets(53433)

Penny and Hernandez replace Zambrano, Oswalt, and Oliver Perez, although the three dropping down remain decent plays. Only Oswalt appears rather risky due to his health problems.

23abcxyz - John Smoltz(4445455424)
23abcxyz - LaTroy Hawkins(553434255)
abcxy - Braden Looper(2255353455)
ax - Dan Miceli(4145142542)
ax - Ryan Madson(3454541444)
ax - Orber Moreno(4453334423)

Smoltz finally qualifies, thereby clearly defining the elite NL closers.


2
3CXZ - Kevin Millwood(30403)
BCYZ - Mark Prior(404)

3abcxyz - Billy Wagner(4554445345)
3byz - Joe Borowski(2433341342)
abcxyz - Eric Gagne(4544424544)
abcxyz - Mike Koplove(3432405433)
abx - Guillermo Mota(1532534345)
byz - Rheal Cormier(5322423342)
bcz - Tim Spooneybarger
by - Javier Lopez(3343314334)


3
ABCXYZ - Roy Oswalt(34450)
CZ - Matt Morris(33314)
C - Woody Williams(21533)

bcxyz - Jason Isringhausen(3541355343)
by - Jay Witasick(3554335212)
cz - Steve Reed(4343133235)
cz - Robb Nen


A
BCXY - Roger Clemens(34542)
CXYz - Carlos Zambrano(23444)
BCZ - Matt Clement(30245)
CXZ - Greg Maddux(23554)
BC - Wade Miller(20444)
CX - Jake Peavy(44344)
CZ - Brian Lawrence(25454)
Xc - Zach Day(34340)
Xc - Carl Pavano(24454)
B - Todd Van Poppel(44253)
X - Tom Glavine(54334)
X - Jerome Williams(34441)
X - Joe Kennedy(34033)
X - Jason Marquis(20444)
Dontrelle Willis(35444)
Russ Ortiz(45244)
Cory Lidle(43502)
Jeff Suppan(44422)
Doug Davis(4405)
Shawn Estes(24434)
Kerry Wood(25550)


B
XY - Brandon Webb(30433)
C - Andy Pettitte(44430)
Y - Josh Beckett(34440)
x - Jeff Fassero(0323)

Yax - Darren Dreifort(5253553243)
Y - Juan Cruz(5334252233)
x - Amaury Telemaco(3433334030)
y - Adam Bernero
Jim Brower(4451314243)
Andrew Good(4255423252)
Michael Tejera


C
Y - Kip Wells(52300)
Z - Jeff Weaver(54433)
Z - John Patterson(4044)
Z - A.J. Burnett(003)
David Wells(53234)
Adam Eaton(42342)
Al Leiter(40233)
Casey Fossum(23040)


X
YZ - Randy Wolf(32353)
Z - Vicente Padilla(53233)
Chris Carpenter(33523)
Victor Santos(04334)


Y
Dustin Hermanson(32252)
Tony Armas, Jr.(430)


Z
Oliver Perez(45032)


a
bcxyz - Octavio Dotel(4534533432)
bcxz - Ray King(5543455345)
bcxz - Luis Vizcaino(4343443434)
bcxz - Chris Reitsma(5333535452)
bxyz - Danny Kolb(5544434535)
bcx - Mike Lincoln(4245453341)
bxy - Kyle Farnsworth(3534545425)
cxz - Trevor Hoffman(4533434552)
cxz - Armando Almanza(433344440)
cyz - Antonio Alfonseca(4324445324)
bx - Brad Lidge(5445434344)
bx - Armando Benitez(4334544332)
by - Julian Tavarez(3452424532)
by - Tom Martin(3554454033)
by - Jose Valverde(3132442434)
cx - Danny Graves(3452433344)
cx - John Riedling(3445402323)
cy - Brian Fuentes(3515234442)
xy - John Franco(3430443354)
xz - Jose Mesa(2434233414)
c - Randy Choate(4534354445)
c - Toby Borland(4335222512)
c - Brian Boehringer(2433434431)
x - Kiko Calero(5335445445)
x - Mike Gonzalez(4534333534)
x - Akinori Otsuka(1453344445)
x - Elmer Dessens(4434443424)
x - T.J. Tucker(3543425543)
x - Chad Harville(5345434431)
x - Salomon Torres(4235445324)
x - Scott Linebrink(3242304323)
x - Tommy Phelps(3352455450)
x - Brian Bruney(3344442342)
y - Brian Meadows(3404232445)
y - Rocky Biddle(4252341534)
y - Oscar Villarreal(1544430332)
Phil Norton(4534553032)
John Grabow(4334055315)
Felix Rodriguez(5034041243)
Tyler Walker(5241144422)


b
cxyz - Tim Worrell(4553354434)
cxz - Mike Remlinger(3532450433)
cy - Matt Herges(3424335234)
cz - Roberto Hernandez(4332243431)
cz - Joey Eischen
cz - Paul Shuey
cz - Mike Crudale
xy - Luis Ayala(3435444434)
yz - Matt Mantei(4024421333)
c - Scott Strickland
x - Kevin Gryboski(3534232324)
y - Rod Beck(253244323)
Dave Burba(2313325533)
Cal Eldred(3533240531)
Scott Service(3334313)
Jason Simontacchi(21223)
Will Cunnane(341043333)
Troy Brohawn


c
Sun-Woo Kim(43005)

yz - Ricky Stone(3235422233)
x - Steve Kline(0333435524)
z - Ricky Bottalico(3213242355)
z - Todd Jones(3434253222)
z - Eddie Oropesa(3040332450)
z - Brian Bowles
z - Dave Coggin
z - Chad Paronto
z - Al Reyes
Blaine Neal(5)
Travis Driskill


x
y - Mike Stanton(3443543404)
C.J. Nitkowski(5234433443)
Duaner Sanchez(5253534332)
Matt Kinney(2434331443)
Mike Gallo(2344134053)
Chad Fox(4454433330)

Kinney replaces Eyre and Reith in an uneventful week.


y
Glendon Rusch(43124)

Brooks Kieschnick(3043324103)
Grant Roberts(1232)
John Foster
Scott Randall
Dave Veres


z
Brandon Villafuerte(4351443)
Brandon Puffer(3323322422)
Vladimir Nunez(1413324320)
Dave Elder
Dan Reichert
Chad Zerbe


NL starters I recommend despite their failure to appear above include Kris Benson(33245), Mike Hampton(33303), Dennis Tankersley(544), and John Thomson(34303).

Other decent relievers include Mike Adams, Geoff Geary, Antonio Osuna, and Matt Wise.


1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2004.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2003.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2002.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Note: Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who reached both 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 relief outings


Tomorrow, like every Sunday during the season, we'll post our preview of the coming week's games and our CDM challenge lineups.


Today's Fantasy Rx: Kiko Calero appears fully recovered from last season's injury and belongs active in almost all NL leagues. While Jason Isringhausen remains solid for now, Calero now looks like a much better bet for saves than Julian Tavarez or Cal Edred in case of injury.


Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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