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May
29th
2004
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
Rotohelp
2004 NL LPR through 8 Weeks
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome to our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method of identifying highly skilled and/or consistently effective pitchers. Please refer to the end of the article for a complete description of the codes. We have included the five most recent 2004 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through May 27th. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so do not roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors.


1
3ABCXYZ - Roy Oswalt(35334)
3ABCXZ - Randy Johnson(55454)
3ABCXZ - Odalis Perez(24455)
ABCY - Jason Schmidt(54245)
ABXY - Josh Beckett(53444)
ACYz - Carlos Zambrano(34432)
ABX - Livan Hernandez(54543)
ACX - Ben Sheets(54353)
AZ - Oliver Perez(54450)

Penny slipped down after a couple of weeks of topping the list. Jason Schmidt reaches this level for the first time this season, replacing Joe Kennedy.

axy - Brian Meadows(5544033424)
ax - Ryan Madson(4434342434)
ax - Scott Linebrink(5544044324)
ax - Dan Miceli(4255432454)

No real surprises here as Scott Linebrink joins the top reliever ranking as expected.


2
3CXZ - Kevin Millwood(34333)
BCYZ - Mark Prior
AX - Brad Penny(24445)

While Penny still seems quite strong, he settles here for a week thanks to a slightly elevated homer rate.

3abcxyz - John Smoltz(5544445444)
3abcxyz - LaTroy Hawkins(23334535445)
3abcxyz - Billy Wagner(5434554445)
3byz - Joe Borowski(3322243334)
abcxyz - Mike Koplove(4345433441)
abcxyz - Eric Gagne(3355455445)
abx - Guillermo Mota(3434541532)
byz - Rheal Cormier(4303305324)
bcz - Tim Spooneybarger
by - Javier Lopez(2532333542)


3
CZ - Matt Morris(42423)
C - Woody Williams(21442)

bcxyz - Jason Isringhausen(3454523335)
by - Jay Witasick(3435313554)
cz - Steve Reed(4333433244)
cz - Robb Nen


A
BCXY - Roger Clemens(44443)
BCXZ - Matt Clement(43453)
BXY - Brandon Webb(43333)
CXZ - Greg Maddux(45442)
BC - Wade Miller(44332)
CX - Jake Peavy(44344)
Xc - Zach Day(24533)
X - Tom Glavine(53345)
X - Joe Kennedy(54343)
X - Chris Carpenter(43443)
X - Cory Lidle(55324)
X - Paul Wilson(23444)
X - Jerome Williams(45033)
Brett Myers(45342)
Doug Davis(35424)
Russ Ortiz(43044)
Jeff Suppan(42404)
Kerry Wood(25550)

Glavine replaces Pettitte as Lidle moves up, Davis returns this week, and Wilson and Ortiz replace Harang, Acevedo, and Thomson. Of course, every starter mentioned here, including the departed Reds and Thomson, belongs on an active roster in almost every standard league.


B
C - Andy Pettitte(44430)
Todd Van Poppel(0444)

Van Poppel appears quite solid and will move up at least one ranking next week.

Yax - Darren Dreifort(5550343525)
Y - Juan Cruz(2341353342)
x - Jeff Fassero(3333344354)
x - Amaury Telemaco(4443343333)
y - Adam Bernero
Jim Brower(4445540144)
Andrew Good(02425542)
Michael Tejera


C
Y - Kip Wells(53035)
Z - Brian Lawrence(35442)
Z - Jeff Weaver(43525)
Z - John Patterson(4044)
Z - A.J. Burnett
Adam Eaton(30242)
David Wells(44532)
Al Leiter(33340)
Casey Fossum(402)


X
Victor Santos(43530)
Jason Marquis(43420)

The surprisingly effective Santos replaces the slumping Pavano here.


Y
Z - Randy Wolf(44323)
Dustin Hermanson(30153)
Tony Armas, Jr.


Z
Vicente Padilla(25323)


a
x - Tommy Phelps(3)

One of the most dependable relievers this season now looks like a respectable starting option, however the pending return of A.J. Burnett likely soon will force Phelps back to the pen.

bcxyz - Octavio Dotel(5455433445)
bcxy - Braden Loopez(4444434352)
bcxz - Roberto Hernandez(3324414444)
bcxz - Luis Vizcaino(2554124434)
bxyz - Danny Kolb(4444443435)
cxyz - Antonio Alfonseca(4434544443)
bcx - Mike Lincoln(4245453341)
bcy - Matt Herges(4032423434)
bcz - Chris Reitsma(5442243535)
bxy - Julian Tavarez(5350443443)
bxy - Jose Valverde(4453252431)
cxz - Trevor Hoffman(5344344533)
bx - Armando Benitez(5145433443)
bx - Kevin Gryboski(3243353534)
bx - Brad Lidge(5353435325)
cx - John Riedling(5535345513)
cx - Danny Graves(2434545522)
cy - Brian Fuentes(5335335152)
xy - John Franco(4545433430)
xz - Jose Mesa(5553552434)

In a good week for aging former closers, both Hernandez and Alfonseca earn significant promotions, making them two of the best bets among NL set-up men.

c - Brian Boehringer(5422433434)
x - Felix Rodriguez(4454534235)
x - Orber Moreno(3524445333)
x - Scott Eyre(2435334544)
x - Mike Johnston(5254344253)
x - Akinori Otsuka(5535435214)
x - Tyler Walker(5455303243)
x - Brian Bruney(3344442342)
y - Rocky Biddle(5112404425)
y - Oscar Villarreal(1544430332)
John Grabow(34522442440
Francis Beltran(4521544344)
Wayne Franklin(2044523444)
Brian Reith(3254253414)
Phil Norton(3445154144)
Mike Wuertz(5321045135)

Despite his recent demotion, Brian Bruney belongs back in the majors soon. He, Scott Eyre, Tyler Walker, John Grabow, and Brian Reith joined this ranking, supplanting the increasingly inconsistent Ryan Wagner.


b
cxyz - Tim Worrell(4434321545)
cxz - Ray King(4433044533)
cz - Mike Remlinger(4)
cz - Joey Eischen
cz - Paul Shuey
xy - Kyle Farnsworth(4343535543)
xy - Luis Ayala(3343434334)
yz - Matt Mantei(4024421333)
c - Scott Strickland
y - Tom Martin(5540542304)
y - Rod Beck(25)
Dave Burba(3354323133)
Cal Eldred(3214435332)
Will Cunnane(341043333)
Jason Simontacchi(2122)
Troy Brohawn
Scott Service

The promotions of Herges and Roberto Hernandez leave Worrell, King, Farnsworth, Ayala, and Beck as the only overly respectable remaining options here in most leagues.


c
Carl Pavano(33342)
Sun-Woo Kim(4300)

I still like Pavano a lot, however he appeared much stronger a month ago.

xz - Todd Jones(4534431332)
yz - Ricky Stone(5413235422)
x - Steve Kline(4443334403)
z - Ricky Bottalico(33435321)
z - Armando Almanza(4433)
z - Eddie Oropesa(3040332450)
z - Brian Bowles
z -Dave Coggin
z - Gary Glover
z - Joey Hamilton
z - Chad Paronto
Toby Borland(35555543)
Randy Choate(0355524140)
Travis Driskill
Blaine Neal

Jones slips slightly to this level, however he remains a decent option, albeit nowhere close to the cruising Borland or even a lefty like Kline or Almanza.


x
y - Brooks Kieschnick(344333043)
Shawn Chacon(3344335241)
Salomon Torres(2425454343)
C.J. Nitkowski(3433335234)
Mike Gallo(55334423532)
Duaner Sanchez(3333232452)br> Brandon Backe(2345214534)
Chad Fox(4454433330)
Chad Harville(4341432534)

Chacon slips back to this level to join the surprisingly effective Nitkowski.


y
Glendon Rusch(04)

Mike Stanton(3143333440)
Grant Roberts(1232)
John Foster
Scott Randall
Dave Veres


z
Vladimir Nunez(2521413324)
Brandon Puffer(40332332)
Dave Elder
Dan Reichert
Brandon Villafuerte
Chad Zerbe


NL starters I recommend despite their failure to appear above include Jose Acevedo(20453), Wilson Alvarez(5521), Justin Germano(4), Matt Ginter(334), Aaron Harang(03453), Tomo Ohka(35453), Horacio Ramirez(02342), Kirk Rueter(04343), John Thomson(23053), and Steve Trachsel(23333).

Other decent relievers include Mike Adams, Jeff Bennett, Kiko Calero, Antonio Osuna, Matt Perisho, and T.J. Tucker.


1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2004.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2003.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2002.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a QA score of 0. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a QA score of 0. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who reached both 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 relief outings


Tomorrow, as we do every Sunday during the season, we will post our preview of the coming week's games and our CDM challenge lineups.


Today's Fantasy Rx: Among non-closing NL relievers, Brian Meadows, Ryan Madson, Scott Linebrink, Dan Miceli, LaTroy Hawkins, Mike Koplove, and Guillermo Mota, look like remarkably safe selections to provide you with a welcome qualitative boost and even occasional wins and saves. Madson and Hawkins also belong in the active lineups of any standard fantasy baseball league, even those using both AL and NL players.


Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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