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May
16th
2004
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
Rotohelp
Sunday Challenge Conversation, '04 Week 7

by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Schedule recommendations for teams with 7 games

Good for hitters / Good for pitchers
Colorado: 1 Home vs. PHI; 3 Road at CIN; 3 Road at NYM.

Good for hitters / Bad for pitchers
Chicago White Sox: 3 Road at CLE; 4 Road at MIN.
Minnesota: 3 Road at TOR; 4 Home vs. CHW.

Bad for hitters / Good for pitchers
Philadelphia: 1 Road at COL; 3 Home vs. LA; 3 Home vs. SD.


Schedule recommendations for teams with 6 games

Good for hitters / Good for pitchers
Boston: 3 Road at TB; 3 Home vs. TOR.
Chicago Cubs: 3 Home vs. SF; 3 Home vs. STL.
Cleveland: 3 Home vs. CHW; 3 Road at TB.
Florida: 3 Home vs. HOU; 3 Home vs. ARI.
Oakland: 3 Home vs. DET; 3 Home vs. KC.

Good for hitters / Bad for pitchers
Anaheim: 3 Home vs. NYY; 3 Home vs. BAL.
Milwaukee: 3 Road at MON(Puerto Rico); 3 Road at PIT.
Montreal: 3 Home(Puerto Rico) vs. MIL; 3 Home(P.R.) vs. SF.
New York Yankees: 3 Road at ANA; 3 Road at TEX.
Pittsburgh: 3 Home vs. SD; 3 Home vs. MIL.
San Diego: 3 Road at PIT; 3 Road at PHI.
San Francisco: 3 Road at CHC; 3 Road at MON(Puerto Rico).
Seattle: 3 Home vs. BAL; 3 Home vs. DET.
St. Louis: 3 Road at NYM; 3 Road at CHC.
Texas: 3 Home vs. KC; 3 Home vs. NYY.
Toronto: 3 Home vs. MIN; 3 Road at BOS.

Bad for hitters / Good for pitchers
Arizona: 3 Road at ATL; 3 Road at FLO.
Atlanta: 3 Home vs. ARI; 3 Home vs. LA.
Detroit: 3 Road at OAK; 3 Road at SEA.
Houston: 3 Road at FLO; 3 Road at CIN.
Los Angeles: 3 Road at PHI; 3 Road at ATL.

Bad for hitters / Bad for pitchers
Baltimore: 3 Road at SEA; 3 Road at ANA.
Cincinnati: 3 Home vs. COL; 3 Home vs. HOU.
Kansas City: 3 Road at TEX; 3 Road at OAK.
New York Mets: 3 Home vs. STL; 3 Home vs. COL.
Tampa Bay: 3 Home vs. BOS; 3 Home vs. CLE.


Pitchers with 2 starts(to deploy everywhere you own them):
Wilson Alvarez: Tue:@PHI(V.Padilla); Sun:@ATL(M.Hampton)
Kris Benson: Tue:SD(B.Lawrence); Sun:MIL(D.Davis)
Jeremy Bonderman: Tue:@OAK(R.Harden); Sun:@SEA(Fr.Garcia)
Matt Clement: Tue:SF(J.Schmidt); Sun:STL(M.Morris)
Zach Day: Tue:MIL(D.Davis); Sun:SF(J.Schmidt)
R.A. Dickey: Tue:KC(J.Affeldt); Sun:NYY(J.Vazquez)
Freddy Garcia: Tue:BAL(D.Cabrera); Sun:DET(J.Bonderman)
Tom Glavine: Tue:STL(M.Morris); Sun:COL(J.Jennings)
Rich Harden: Tue:DET(J.Bonderman); Sun:KC(J.Affeldt)
Mark Hendrickson: Tue:BOS(T.Wakefield); Sun:CLE(Cl.Lee)
Randy Johnson: Tue:@ATL(M.Hampton); Sun:@FLO(D.Willis)
Brian Lawrence: Tue:@PIT(K.Benson); Sun:@PHI(V.Padilla)
Cliff Lee: Mon:CHW(F.Diaz); Sun:@TB(M.Hendrickson)
Cory Lidle: Tue:COL(J.Jennings); Sun:HOU(W.Miller)
Wade Miller: Tue:@FLO(D.Willis); Sun:@CIN(C.Lidle)
Matt Morris: Tue:@NYM(T.Glavine); Sun:@CHC(M.Clement)
Vicente Padilla: Tue:LA(W.Alvarez); Sun:SD(B.Lawrence)
Brad Radke: Mon:@TOR(T.Lilly); Sat:CHW(F.Diaz)
Johan Santana: Tue:@TOR(M.Batista); Sun:CHW(J.Garland)
Jason Schmidt: Tue:@CHC(M.Clement); Sun:@MON(Z.Day)
Javier Vazquez: Tue:@ANA(A.Sele); Sun:@TEX(R.Dickey)
Tim Wakefield: Tue:@TB(M.Hendrickson); Sun:TOR(T.Lilly or M.Batista)
Dontrelle Willis: Tue:HOU(W.Miller); Sun:ARI(R.Johnson)
Randy Wolf: Mon:@COL(A.Cook); Sat:SD(D.Wells)

Pitchers with 2 starts to deploy only in leagues that do not count qualitative stats:
Jeremy Affeldt: Tue:@TEX(R.Dickey); Sun:@OAK(R.Harden)
Daniel Cabrera: Tue:@SEA(Fr.Garcia); Sun:@ANA(A.Sele)
Aaron Cook: Mon:PHI(R.Wolf); Sat:@NYM(A.Leiter)
Doug Davis: Tue:@MON(Z.Day); Sun:@PIT(K.Benson)
Felix Diaz: Mon:@CLE(Cl.Lee); Sat:@MIN(B.Radke)
Jon Garland: Tue:@CLE(C.Durbin); Sun:@MIN(J.Santana)
Mike Hampton: Tue:ARI(R.Johnson); Sun:LA(W.Alvarez)
Jason Jennings: Tue:@CIN(C.Lidle); Sun:@NYM(T.Glavine)
Ted Lilly: Mon:MIN(B.Radke); Sat:@BOS(P.Martinez) or SUN:@BOS(T.Wakefield)
Aaron Sele: Tue:NYY(J.Vazquez); Sun:BAL(D.Cabrera)


Diamond Challenge

After watching our team flounder miserably for six weeks, we are going to spend fives moves this week in the hope of fixing our offense, specifically our weak infield.

With Giles out for several weeks, we are going to take advantage of Orlando Hudson's availability as a free agent to add him at second base. Mike Young remains tempting, particularly considering he is outproducing Alfonso Soriano for nearly half the cost, however we are comfortable running Soriano and Hudson right now.

While Mike Lowell costs more than Hinske or Crede, we need power desperately, and Lowell also owns the best skills of his career. Given Crede's power exceeds Hinske's, we will drop the Toronto 3B.

Lyle Overbay heads to Puerto Rico on Tuesday, and while he could struggle the following two weeks against Los Angeles and San Diego pitchers, he also enjoys an upcoming trip to Colorado. His fantastic salary makes him an excellent addition to our team, and since Josh Phelps' skills look horrible even when compared to the unimpressive Brad Fullmer, we will cut another Toronto infielder.

We still like ARod at short, but neither Cintron nor Furcal are giving us anything. We will add Brian Roberts, who owns much better skills than Carlos Guillen and should continue producing indefinitely. With neither Cintron nor Furcal producing, we will keep Cintron, who owns better power than Furcal and costs significantly less.

Lastly, we need to improve our outfield. Assuming Melvin Mora remains healthy, he provides a five-category boost at minimal cost. We will cut Ichiro, who owns a terrible ground-fly rate and is not as useful as Pierre or Crawford.

Going down to 8 remaining moves here is a risk, but if we do not find a way to boost our production, we are going to lag all year in the offensive categories.

SP(6)
Pedro Martinez: Sat:TOR(R.Halladay or T.Lilly)
Curt Schilling: Wed:@TB(R.Bell)
Randy Johnson: Tue:@ATL(M.Hampton); Sun:@FLO(D.Willis)
Mike Mussina: Thu:@ANA(B.Colon)
Roy Halladay: Fri:@BOS(B.Arroyo) or Sat:@BOS(P.Martinez)
Tim Hudson: Thu:DET(G.Knotts)
Javier Vazquez: Tue:@ANA(A.Sele); Sun:@TEX(R.Dickey)
Mark Mulder: Fri:KC(Br.Anderson)
Roy Oswalt: Thu:@FLO(J.Beckett)
Kerry Wood: Sat:STL(W.Williams)???
Kevin Brown: Fri:@TEX(K.Rogers)
Josh Beckett: Thu:HOU(R.Oswalt)
Shawn Chacon: 1 Home vs. PHI; 3 Road at CIN; 3 Road at NYM.

Aside from Randy and Vazquez, the only other obvious starts are Schilling, Hudson, and Mulder. Chacon also is a good play with Colorado heading on the road.

We will deploy the five new members of our offense. Teixeira stays at first base, Fullmer, Crede, & Cintron head to the bench. With Mora and now the cap room to run Beltran regularly our 8 OF/DH slots will include Beltran, Wells, Crawford, Podsednik, Mora, Dunn, Wilkerson, and Miguel Cabrera. Pierre and Hidalgo will sit since we do not need Pierre's steals right now and Hidalgo is not hitting anything, though his power potential makes him more useful than anyone we are cutting.

Shadow of the Umpire(19th lg; 183rd div; 4658th overall)
Week 7: May 17-May 23

C	Javy Lopez		940
C	Jason Varitek		680
1B	Mark Teixeira		760
1B	Lyle Overbay		400
2B	Alfonso Soriano		1930
2B	Orlando Hudson		550
3B	Mike Lowell		1230
3B	Hank Blalock		850
SS	Alex Rodriguez		2010
SS	Brian Roberts		610
OF	Vernon Wells		1150
OF	Scott Podsednik		980
OF	Melvin Mora		740
OF	Brad Wilkerson		690
OF	Adam Dunn		690
OF	Miguel Cabrera		570 
DH	Carlos Beltran		1760
DH	Carl Crawford		1040 

SP	Curt Schilling		1610
SP	Randy Johnson		1550 
SP	Tim Hudson		1320
SP	Javier Vazquez		1280 
SP	Mark Mulder		1200
SP	Shawn Chacon		630
RP	Eric Gagne		1890
RP	Octavio Dotel		1250
RP	Arthur Rhodes		800
RP	Matt Herges		670


Total Salary for Week 7: 	29780


Internet Challenge

Orlando Hudson replaces Marcus Giles here. We also are dropping Phelps in favor of Overbay, who hopefully will produce more offense while conveniently costing less. Although we probably additionally need upgrades at third and outfield, cap concerns lead us to wait at least another few days before making more than these two moves this week.

SP(6)
Curt Schilling: Wed:@TB(R.Bell)
Randy Johnson: Tue:@ATL(M.Hampton)
Mike Mussina: Thu:@ANA(B.Colon)
Tim Hudson: Thu:DET(G.Knotts)
Javier Vazquez: Tue:@ANA(A.Sele)
Roy Oswalt: Thu:@FLO(J.Beckett)
Josh Beckett: Thu:HOU(R.Oswalt)
Shawn Chacon: 1 Home vs. PHI; 3 Road at CIN.

No starts: Pedro, Halladay, Wood, Brown, Contreras.

Schilling, Hudson, and Chacon look good. Randy and Beckett seem solid, and then Vazquez should be a slightly better gamble than Mussina.

With Overbay and Hudson in the lineup, Fullmer, Crede, Cintron, Ichiro, and Hidalgo will comprise our bench.

The Umpire Hunter(17th lg; 513th overall)
Week 7a: May 17-May 20

C	Mike Piazza		990
C	Jason Varitek		680
1B	Mark Teixeira		760
1B	Lyle Overbay		400
2B	Alfonso Soriano		1930
2B	Orlando Hudson		550
3B	Hank Blalock		850
3B	Joe Crede		600
SS	Alex Rodriguez		2010
SS	Kazuo Matsui		750 
OF	Juan Pierre		1470
OF	Vernon Wells		1150 
OF	Carl Crawford		1040
OF	Scott Podsednik		980
OF	Adam Dunn		690
OF	Miguel Cabrera		570 
DH	Carlos Beltran		1760
DH	Brad Wilkerson		690 

SP	Curt Schilling		1610 
SP	Randy Johnson		1550 
SP	Tim Hudson		1320 
SP	Javier Vazquez		1280  
SP	Josh Beckett		990 
SP	Shawn Chacon		630
RP	Eric Gagne		1890
RP	Octavio Dotel		1250
RP	Arthur Rhodes		800
RP	Matt Herges		670

Total Salary for Week 7a: 	29860


Fantasy Baseball & Budget Baseball
(Same game = same rosters and moves for both teams)

With 12 moves remaining, we need to fix our weakest positions here. We are comfortable with our pitching, but like our DC team, this squad needs an offensive boost.

While adding both Johnny Estrada and Victor Martinez seems like a decent idea, we still like Schneider and LeCroy. We will add Estrada and cut Jason Phillips.

We cannot pass up Lyle Overbay here, so we will add him for Josh Phelps.

Fortunately, we like our outfield, already own Soriano and Hudson at 2B, and want to run Blalock and Batista with the Expos in Puerto Rico this week. To try to fix our shortstop hole, we will add Brian Roberts and dump Derek Jeter.

SP(6)
Curt Schilling: Wed:@TB(R.Bell)
Randy Johnson: Tue:@ATL(M.Hampton); Sun:@FLO(D.Willis)
Javier Vazquez: Tue:@ANA(A.Sele); Sun:@TEX(R.Dickey)
Pedro Martinez: Sat:TOR(R.Halladay or T.Lilly)
Kerry Wood: Sat:STL(W.Williams)???
Tim Hudson: Thu:DET(G.Knotts)
Roy Halladay: Fri:@BOS(B.Arroyo) or Sat:@BOS(P.Martinez)
Kevin Brown: Fri:@TEX(K.Rogers)
Josh Beckett: Thu:HOU(R.Oswalt)
Shawn Chacon: 1 Home vs. PHI; 3 Road at CIN; 3 Road at NYM.

Randy, Vazquez, Schilling, Hudson, and Chacon all are easy calls. We do not want to risk running Pedro against Halladay, and Wood may not start, leaving us with Brown or Beckett. Since Beckett pitches at home against a weaker offense, and he costs less money, we will deploy him.

Offensively, Schneider replaces Phillips, Overbay replaces Phelps, and Roberts replaces Cintron, who heads to the bench. Todd Helton stays active since he plays a game more than Pujols in better hitters' parks, and Derrek Lee then fills our last DH spot as Hideki Matsui joins LeCroy, Munson, Everett, and Kearns on our bench. While we need to replace Munson, we are waiting one more week since we like Batista in Puerto Rico.

We probably will burn a couple more of our nine remaining moves by the end of the month, but we are comfortable with the lineup listed below for now.

The Umpire Chronicles(15th lg; 1654th overall)
& Umpire with a Soul(18th lg; 3141st overall)
Week 7: May 17-May 23

C	Brian Schneider		1100
C	Johnny Estrada		1000
1B	Todd Helton		3450
1B	Lyle Overbay		1000
2B	Alfonso Soriano		3060 
2B	Orlando Hudson		1420
3B	Hank Blalock		2020
3B	Tony Batista		1640
SS	Orlando Cabrera		2460 
OF	Carlos Beltran		3060
OF	Manny Ramirez		2960 
OF	Vernon Wells		2260
OF	Adam Dunn		1950 
OF	Brad Wilkerson		1870
OF	Miguel Cabrera		1600 
DH	Derrek Lee		2690
DH	Mark Teixeira		1550 

SP	Curt Schilling		3090 
SP	Randy Johnson		2900 
SP	Javier Vazquez		2890 
SP	Tim Hudson		2840 
SP	Josh Beckett		2000
SP	Shawn Chacon		1600
RP	Armando Benitez		2490
RP	Octavio Dotel		2400
RP	Matt Herges		1610
RP	Arthur Rhodes		1580

Total Salary for Week 7: 	59790


Today's Fantasy Rx: Most of this week's free agents do not impress me at all. However, Adam Dunn looks like a must-own player this year, so definitely add him if you do not already own him. If you need an infield boost, Orlando Hudson, Mike Lowell, and even Carlos Guillen might help, although I do not particularly trust Guillen. While Hudson is not fantastic, his availability makes him a perfect replacement for Marcus Giles in almost all challenge games. Lowell also looks like a logical addition, though you should also exercise caution here unless you regularly wind up with extra cap space that you can apply to third base. Adrian Beltre and a few other players look nearly as good as Lowell and Blalock.


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