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May
11th
2004
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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2004 Hitting: May NL Roto Prospects
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Arizona: Luis Terrero, 23, OF-R
43/116 for .371/.421/.655 with 6 HR, 21 RBI, 20 R, 10/11 SB%,
and a 9:22 BB:K for AAA Tucson(PCL).

The Diamondbacks solidified Terrero's place as their primary outfield prospect by leaving him in the minors to play every day while promoting Doug Devore in late April as a short-term outfield backup. After suffering through a weak 2002, Terrero strongly rebounded in his AAA debut last season to reemerge as an intriguing fantasy option. Developing plate discipline and increasing power potential nicely augment his impressive speed, giving him as much long-term upside as almost any upper-level outfield prospect. Of course, I still expect Arizona to re-sign Steve Finley, but given the age of Finley and Luis Gonzalez, the Diamondbacks certainly could find room for Terrero if he maintains this approximate level of production for another couple months. Certainly attempt to acquire him once he reaches the majors since his combination of tools and improving skills makes him a surprisingly safe fantasy option.


Atlanta: Wilson Betemit, 22, 3B-R
0/4 for .000/.000/.000 with 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 0:2 BB:K for Atlanta.
17/76 for .224/.277/.368 with 2 HR, 16 RBI, 9 R, 1/1 SB%,
and a 6:27 BB:K for AAA Richmond(IL).

Recalling Betemit as an infield backup doesn't even make sense with Rafael Furcal and Marcus Giles fighting hopefully minor injuries. To make room for Betemit, Atlanta demoted Mike Hessman, who appears relatively ready for the majors and can play third base. Switching Hessman for someone who can handle the middle infield positions, such as Nick Green, seemed like a decent idea, but Betemit appears lost at the plate and he's played third almost exclusively this year. Since he should head back to the minors as soon as Eli Marrero returns from the DL, Betemit at least shouldn't hurt Atlanta too badly, and they may successfully outright him by the end of the month. Given his limited role, production, and immediate upside, you obviously should ignore him for now. Even though I still believe Betemit could enjoy a couple productive seasons at some point, he barely merits a AAA job right now, forget about any regular role in the big leagues.


Chicago Cubs: Jason DuBois, 24, OF/1B/R
37/114 for .325/.398/.693 with 12 HR, 32 RBI, 23 R, 1/1 SB%,
and a 12:30 BB:K for AAA Iowa(PCL).

The seemingly annual health problems of Moises Alou and Sammy Sosa should give DuBois some at-bats this summer, however Dusty Baker almost certainly will insert anyone on the Cubs' bench into the lineup before starting DuBois regularly. Even if Alou departs after the season, I expect the Cubs to find at least a platoon partner for DuBois despite the rookie's performance in his AAA debut. I doubt DuBois will hurt you as short-term roster filler, but don't expect more than a couple RBI if you target him.


Cincinnati: Tim Hummel, 25, 3B/2B-R
0/1 for .000/.000/.000 with 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 0:1 BB:K for Cincinnati.
28/97 for .289/.355/.443 with 2 HR, 13 RBI, 11 R, 2/2 SB%,
and an 8:22 BB:K for AAA Louisville(IL).

While the Reds recalled Hummel a couple days ago to replace the injured Brandon Larson, he doesn't appear likely to see much playing time. Since Hummel looks like no better than Cincinnati's third option at any infield position, only the good chance of him posting respectable BA makes him worth a look. Generally wait until he finds regular at-bats before adding him to your team.


Colorado: Clint Barmes, 24, SS-R
48/131 for .366/.407/.511 with 3 HR, 9 RBI, 21 R, 7/10 SB%,
and a 7:15 BB:K for AAA Colorado Springs(PCL).

Although Erick Almonte might reach the majors first, Barmes' success since converting to shortstop makes him the logical replacement when the Rockies sell high on Royce Clayton. Of course, Barmes owns little overall offensive upside thanks to his unimpressive plate discipline and limited power potential. The good news is that he appears capable of holding a .300 BA while stealing a few bases a month. Look to acquire Barmes as soon as Colorado promotes him since he could hold down an infield job in Coors at least for a few seasons.


Florida: Larry Sutton, 33, 1B-L
45/117 for .385/.479/.778 with 10 HR, 27 RBI, 31 R, 1/1 SB%,
and a 21:28 BB:K for AAA Albuquerque(PCL).

Sutton missed last season with knee problems but returned this year to continue the offensive development he demonstrated in 2002 when he posted a .292/.417/.478 for AAA Sacramento(PCL). Taking advantage of the benefits of playing in Albuquerque, Sutton added impressive power numbers to his respectable plate discipline this spring. While Florida lacks an everyday lineup spot for him, he offers significant upside as a pinch-hitter, and he at least shouldn't hurt you if needed as roster filler. Target Sutton when looking for a low-risk utilityman capable of double-digit value if he somehow finds regular at-bats.


Houston: Jason Alfaro, 26, SS/3B-R
32/106 for .302/.350/.500 with 5 HR, 23 RBI, 15 R, 1/4 SB%,
and a 7:12 BB:K for AAA New Orleans(PCL).

He re-signed with the Astros almost immediately after earning minor league free agency last fall. Houston rewarded him with another trip to New Orleans, where Alfaro now anchors their infield thanks to rediscovering the power potential he demonstrated in 2002 at AA Round Rock(TL). While he lacks outstanding tools or great overall batting skill, Alfaro also shouldn't hurt you if needed in a limited role. However, wait until an injury forces you to look to available free agent lists before adding him since he offers little upside for fantasy teams or the Astros.


Los Angeles: Jose Flores, 30, SS/IF-R
20/79 for .253/.358/.329 with 1 HR, 9 RBI, 16 R, 1/1 SB%,
and a 13:6 BB:K for AAA Las Vegas(PCL).

Despite the mostly impressive averages posted by nearly everyone on the Dodgers this year, Flores deserves a shot in the majors since his outstanding plate discipline and consistently promising OBP could help Los Angeles more than a 12th pitcher. Unfortunately, the promising on-base averages of the Dodgers' current middle infielders will keep Flores from enjoying many at-bats even if recalled, so plan to ignore him until he finds a team with less depth or a better hitters' park.


Milwaukee: Jeff Liefer, 29, 1B-L
29/100 for .290/.362/.550 with 6 HR, 25 RBI, 14 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 12:9 BB:K for AAA Indianapolis(IL).

Hopefully Liefer gets the chance to earn significant attention for something this year other than getting stuck in the dugout restroom during a recent game. The biggest obstacle for Liefer is that the Brewers don't need a sixth left-handed 1B/OF despite his power potential and nicely improved plate discipline. If Milwaukee moves Ben Grieve later this year, hopefully Liefer receives the chance to replace him in the lineup to finally fulfill the offensive promise he continues to display in the minors. Since I expect his improved walk and contact rates at least will result in a passable BA, target Liefer once he returns to the majors, particularly if he might enjoy regular at-bats.


Montreal: Ryan Church, 25, OF-L
35/93 for .376/.464/.613 with 5 HR, 21 RBI, 24 R, 0/1 SB%,
and a 15:16 BB:K for AAA Edmonton(PCL).

Swiped from Cleveland this January with the currently equally intriguing Maicer Izturis, Church owns the skills necessary to emerge as a significant offensive threat if given the opportunity. Neither his .16 walk rate nor a .83 contact rate particularly impress me, but considering the horrendous production from the Montreal outfielders in the majors, Church deserves a shot now to see if he can maintain this performance with the Expos. As he certainly couldn't perform much worse than the current starters, take advantage of any opportunity to acquire Church. Even if he spends most of this year in the minors, I expect him to earn the starting job in right field next spring, making him a potentially excellent keeper if you can grab him at a minimum.


New York Mets: Craig Brazell, 23, 1B-L
33/115 for .287/.311/.626 with 11 HR, 25 RBI, 18 R, 0/1 SB%,
and a 4:27 BB:K for AAA Norfolk(IL).

Unless the Mets bizarrely decide to move Mike Piazza to clear first base, Brazell needs to find a new organization, preferably one that will ignore his obvious OBP deficiency. Yes, he owns outstanding power skills, but barring injury, don't expect him in the majors this year. Ignore him unless absolutely desperate for power since I don't see Brazell holding a decent BA in the near future.


Philadelphia: Chase Utley, 25, 2B-L
0/1 for .000/.000/.000 with 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 0:0 BB:K for Philadelphia.
26/99 for .263/.350/.475 with 4 HR, 21 RBI, 18 R, 2/4 SB%,
and a 15:25 BB:K for AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre(IL).

Recently promoted to replace the injured and increasingly ineffective Placido Polanco, Utley owns the skills necessary to Wally Pipp the pending free agent veteran second baseman. His contact problems make him a BA risk, however Utley's power potential and quantitative upside in Philadelphia gives him a good chance to earn helpful fantasy value. Unfortunately for Utley owners, he won't stay in the lineup unless he excels very quickly. Only target Utley for a short-term boost this year or as a cheap keeper.


Pittsburgh: Daryle Ward, 28, 1B/OF-L
19/62 for .306/.328/.613 with 5 HR, 14 RBI, 11 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 2:9 BB:K for AAA Nashville(PCL).

Nothing here seems particularly divergent from Ward's established level of performance. He owns extreme power potential but lacks the plate discipline to hold a regular job. Of course, if Pittsburgh gives him the opportunity, he could contribute significant quantitative stats to your team. While he won't hold this BA, Ward looks like a good target for anyone needing a power boost.


San Diego: Jon Knott, 25, 1B-L
35/113 for .310/.378/.584 with 7 HR, 28 RBI, 15 R, 2/3 SB%,
and a 12:24 BB:K for AAA Portland(PCL).

With Tagg Bozied's injury leaving first base open for Knott, he appears nearly ready to succeed Phil Nevin, who the Padres probably will deal due to his displeasure with the pitcher-friendly Petco Park. A .79 contact rate indicates he could struggle to post a good BA, but his significant power potential should allow him to smack a good number of homers in any stadium. Knott could stay starting at first for San Diego indefinitely, making him an excellent player to acquire once the Padres promote him.


San Francisco: Todd Linden, 23, OF-S
39/119 for .328/.381/.429 with 2 HR, 19 RBI, 25 R, 1/3 SB%,
and an 11:31 BB:K for AAA Fresno(PCL).

Unless the Giants rebound soon, San Francisco likely will deal their veteran outfielders to create lineup room for their upper-level prospects. Unfortunately, Linden lacks great plate discipline, and playing home games at SBC similarly reduces his BA upside. Since he also lacks much power potential, he may struggle to earn the trust of Giants' management. Only target Linden right now if desperate for outfield help.


St. Louis: John Mabry, 33, 1B/OF-L
32/89 for .360/.444/.674 with 7 HR, 25 RBI, 17 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 14:21 BB:K for AAA Memphis(PCL).

Despite the impressive performances managed by most of their benchwarmers, I suspect St. Louis soon will recall former Cardinals' prospect Mabry as a reward for his outstanding AAA numbers. Of course, after he managed a meager .212/.328/.356 with Seattle last year, expecting Mabry even to post an acceptable average is a bad idea. Wait to see if he'll rebound to the shockingly strong stats he managed with Oakland in 2002 before even considering Mabry for your team.


We'll continue tomorrow with American League pitching prospects.


Today's Fantasy Rx: Utley easily possesses the most upside of the players discussed above, however I doubt he remains on many free agent lists. Church, Knott, Linden, and Terrero merit the most interest in long-term leagues, however only Church and Barmes possess reasonable shots at seeing extended playing time in the near future without a significant injury opening a roster spot.


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