Today's Fantasy Rx

To qualify for the highest ratings in these articles, pitchers must meet five individual skill ratios in 25 or more innings: K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-, and G-F of 1.0+. Only one AL pitcher reached that standard through Thursday, so I'm going to wait one more week before presenting the first in-season LPR rankings of 2004. Instead I again will discuss a few individually dominant pitchers.

Among the top dozen most skilled AL starters this year, only three pitchers escaped discussion here in previous weeks. Each warrants an extended comment today, and I also have included the QA scores for all six games each pitcher started so far.

QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

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Freddy Garcia, SEA: 1-1 on a 33:10 K:BB in 42.2 IP over 6 GS with 38 H, 2 HR, a 1.19 G-F, and a 2.11 ERA. At 1.90 R/G, Garcia receives less run support than any other AL starter. Yet he may be the safest pitcher in the league to own since among every AL pitcher, only Garcia maintained the skill standards outlined above after accumulating 25 innings. While several other starters allowed just a couple more hits than innings pitched, Garcia's consistent effectiveness qualify him as a tremendous sleeper right now based on his statistical trend over the past few seasons, as well as the Mariners' horrible start. He hasn't departed a game before completing at least six innings, and despite facing five different teams in his six starts, he owns an ERA no higher than 3.52 against any of them. When Garcia last maintained this level of skill in 2001, he won 18 games and ranked as one of the most valuable pitchers in roto. I don't know if he'll win more than a dozen based on Seattle's weak offense, however his qualitative contributions alone appear likely to push him over $20. The only concern is that he appears a prime trade candidate, but if your league allows you to keep players traded to the NL, try to grab Garcia now before his owner realizes that he finally looks like an ace again after two mediocre seasons.

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Jason Davis, CLE: 1-2 on a 16:16 K:BB in 35.1 IP over 6 GS with 42 H, 3 HR, a 2.34 G-F, and a 4.59 ERA. Despite five reasonably effective starts, I can't reasonably recommend someone who owns both a 4.1 K/9 and a 4.1 BB/9. Cleveland's inconsistent defense also leaves Davis with an elevated hit rate, further sabotaging his qualitative stats. Fortunately, Davis remains a solid groundball pitcher who rarely allows homers. His walk rate heads lower with nearly every start, and a minimal platoon split suggests Davis at least should pitch relatively decently in the vast majority of his starts. Of course, considering he turns 24 tomorrow, he probably won't begin dominating opponents regularly for another couple of years, but his overall performance impresses me for his age. While he isn't a good target in single-season leagues, his long-term upside ranks with any right-handed pitcher in Cleveland's system.

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Carlos Silva, MIN: 5-0 on a 16:8 K:BB in 39.1 IP over 6 GS with 42 H, 2 HR, a 1.31 G-F, and a 3.43 ERA. After two unimpressive seasons during which he registered a 3.83 ERA on an 89:59 K:BB in 171.1 IP, Silva certainly didn't seem a good gamble while moving into the rotation for an AL Team that plays home games in the Metrodome. However, he also compiled a 100:27 K:BB in 180 IP over 28 GS at AA Reading back in 2001, and while he dominated few hitters in Philadelphia, he held a decent walk rate and a 2.22 ground-fly ratio. Now, although his low strikeout total won't help you, the combination of a great WHIP and nearly seven runs a game of run support make Silva an excellent pitcher to own. Unfortunately, Silva's prolific compilation of victories likely makes him nearly impossible to acquire, however if you already added him to your team this spring, I see no reason to shop him now with Seattle, Tampa, and Detroit among his upcoming opponents.

However, if we ignore his 2003 season, his performance this year looks like a logical progression In addition to the ten dominant relievers reviewed here over the last three weeks, three more pitchers merit extended discussion based on their continued skill effectiveness. We've included the ten most recent QA scores for each pitcher.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

9 DOM, 4 DUL, 1 DIS
Billy Koch, CHW(1533455543): 1-0 and 5 Saves on a 13:8 K:BB in 13.1 IP over 14 G with 12 H, 2 HR, a 1.19 G-F, and a 5.40 ERA. While this line seems similar to Koch's 2003 performance, his one blown save against Kansas City back on April 14th, a game that Chicago even won in the bottom of the 9th, distorts his otherwise respectable numbers. In his other 13 games, Koch owns a 13:7 K:BB in 12.2 IP with 8 H, 0 HR, a 1.42 G-F, and a 2.84 ERA. Only the walk rate worries me at all, and despite walking five batters over his last two appearances in Baltimore, he still saved both games. We can't listen to sports radio stations around here without hearing hosts complain about Koch and rant about how the Sox need to find a closer. Since Marte pitches the more valuable middle innings and none of the other relievers regularly dominates batters, I see no reason for the Sox to switch away from Koch. With three saves in the last week, his role seems as secure as any time since the beginning of last season, so if you need saves and don't mind a closer who won't post great qualitative stats, try to trade for Koch now while his ERA and WHIP might convince his current owner to sell low.

9 DOM, 4 DUL, 3 DIS
Alan Embree, BOS(5533442535): 0-0 and 0 Saves on a 15:5 K:BB in 14.1 IP over 16 G with 6 H, 2 HR, a .58 G-F, and a 2.51 ERA. I wish Embree owned the 1.35 G-F he averaged over his previous two years in Boston, however he still ranks as one of the better bets among AL middle relievers. Relatively few batters reach base against him, and other than two poor outings in which he allowed homers, he otherwise owns a 0.00 ERA and a 0.69 WHIP. As his May disaster already occurred, I see no reason not to add him anywhere you see him available since I expect him to excel for the rest of the month before allowing another homer in Coors when the Rockies head to Colorado in mid-June.

8 DOM, 2 DUL, 1 DIS
Ricardo Rincon, OAK(4452454345): 0-0 and 0 Saves on a 9:5 K:BB in 7.2 IP with 8 H, 0 HR, a 1.25 G-F, and a 3.52 ERA. He possesses one of the most pronounced platoon splits in the game as right-handed batters posted an OPS 149 points above the .556 mark lefties managed against him over the past three years. Unfortunately for Rincon owners, no manager uses him strictly as a specialist, and a .952/.502 OPS split so far this season illustrates the folly of employing him in another role. I expect Rincon's WHIP will negate his ERA contribution to fantasy teams, making him essentially useless, albeit an acceptable roster filler. If he ever stopped facing right-handed batters, Rincon might approach double-digit fantasy value, but Oakland apparently refuses to accept his established limitations, thereby diminishing his value to both the Athletics and fantasy owners everywhere.

We'll continue tomorrow with a look at dominant NL pitchers this year.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Anyone willing to pay a premium for a stud starter should target Freddy Garcia now. Owners looking for a discount closer similarly should attempt to add Billy Koch before his value rises any more.