Today's Fantasy Rx

Today I'm reviewing pitchers who, over the past three years, saw their ERA jump by at least 1.50 from April to May. We only looked at pitchers who compiled at least a total of 30 IP in both months over the past three years. They also must show an increase in ERA from April to May while registering at least 10 IP in both months in each of the last three years.

Ted Lilly, LH Starter, TOR: -2.53 ERA 
Yearly ERA increase between April and May:
2001: 3.22; 2002: 2.55; 2003: 2.32.
01-03	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	9/12	65.0	47/9	63:16	3-2/0	2.63
May	15/16	82.0	79/9	58:29	4-5/0	5.16

04APR	4/4	25.0	18/3	21:10	1-2/0	4.32

Lilly's 2004 stats currently look like a microcosm of his 2003 season. His 7.6 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, and .81 G-F all are nearly identical to his marks last year. However, a 3.6 BB/9 suggests early control problems and a 6.5 hit rate is unreasonably low given Toronto's questionable defense and the downside of pitching home games in the SkyDome. The one great piece of news is that Lilly's 4414 QA log depicts an increasingly dominant pitcher who only needs to improve his consistency to emerge as a top-of-the-rotation starter. Unfortunately, he appears on schedule to face the White Sox twice, the Royals in Kansas City, and then the Twins, Red Sox, and Rangers. Only the Royals own. All of these teams boast fairly impressive lineups, so if Lilly follows his normal pattern by allowing a higher hit rate in May, his ERA will shoot over 5.00. Of course, his skills remain relatively strong and I expect him to enjoy a respectable fantasy season, but if you can't reserve Lilly for the majority of May, shop him now before he suffers a couple qualitative disasters.

Paul Wilson, RH Starter, CIN: -2.39 ERA 
Yearly ERA increase between April and May:
2001: 4.08; 2002: 1.61; 2003: 2.49.
01-03	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	15/15	87.1	85/14	47:29	3-7/0	4.23
May	18/18	106.0	136/14	65:39	3-7/0	6.62

04APR	5/5	30.0	38/5	14:7	3-0/0	4.50

So far Wilson appears fairly healthy and effective this season. He owns good command and a career-best 1.35 G-F, which suggests we should see his homer rate dip. Yet the Reds don't possess a great defense, and Wilson's 44033 QA log, while relatively respectable, doesn't indicate great upside. If his walk rate rises slightly to compensate for the hit rate problems, we could see all his qualitative stats edge upward. Of course, he should remain effective for his next few starts against the Brewers, Giants, and Dodgers, but start to shop Wilson no later than the middle of May to maximize his value for your team.

Eric Gagne, RH Closer, LA: -1.96 ERA 
Yearly ERA increase between April and May:
2001: 0.66; 2002: 1.82; 2003: 4.97.
01-03	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	5/30	57.1	43/3	73:14	1-1/17	2.67
May	6/32	58.1	47/10	68:11	0-3/20	4.63

04APR	0/9	10.2	6/2	11:5	1-0/6	2.53

Subtract Gagne's two appearances in San Francisco in which he allowed homers on consecutive days to Barry Bonds and then Pedro Feliz to get a true indication of his effectiveness. While he still saved both those games, he owns an 11:2 K:BB in 8.2 IP with 4 H, 0 HR, an 8-7 G-F, and a 0.00 ERA for the rest of the month. The Dodgers didn't need him during their three games in Coors, and now Gagne will enjoy home series against the Pirates, Phillies, and Padres in May, along with visits to Montreal, Chicago, Cincinnati, and New York. Only another trip up the coast to face the Giants at the end of the month concerns me, so if you drafted Gagne in the expectation that he against would echo his last two outstanding seasons, wait for now since I see logical reason he should fail fantasy owners any time soon.

Elmer Dessens, RH Starter, ARI: -1.72 ERA 
Yearly ERA increase between April and May:
2001: 0.51; 2002: 1.84; 2003: 2.99.
01-03	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	16/16	94.1	97/13	49:34	6-6/0	3.44
May	17/17	96.0	120/15	66:26	5-3/0	5.16

04APR	4/4	20.2	31/3	13:6	1-2/0	7.40

The Diamondbacks admittedly possesses a terrible defense right now, highlighted by a 39-year-old centerfielder and a left fielder who can't throw overly hard without risking a season-ending injury. Yet Dessens just doesn't dominate opponents, and a 1.61 G-F only partially limits his downside by lowering his homer rate. Dessens posted poor qualitative marks last year thanks to a 10.9 hit rate, and even with his good command and control, pitching in Arizona creates too many problems for someone with Dessens' unimpressive skill set. As he hasn't finished the sixth inning in any of his four starts, effective performances against the Brewers and Padres don't allow us to expect consistent ERA improvement. After starting tomorrow in Philadelphia, Dessens should spend the month facing the Phillies, Mets, Braves, Marlins, and Dodgers. None of these teams particularly worries me, so if you already own Dessens and can leave him reserved at your leisure, wait since I don't envision him losing his rotation spot and he could reemerge as an intriguing option at some point. Moving him at the nadir of his value makes little sense unless you otherwise need to keep him active.

Tom Glavine, LH Starter, NYM: -1.69 ERA 
Yearly ERA increase between April and May:
2001: 1.85; 2002: 1.34; 2003: 2.40.
01-03	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	17/17	110.1	90/7	70:45	11-3/0	2.28
May	17/17	113.1	114/19	64:30	7-6/0	3.97

04APR	5/5	33.0	25/1	11:7	3-1/0	1.64

Other than a mild 0.40 improvement in May of 1999, Glavine's ERA jumped at least 1.25 in every May since 1996. He looks like one of the best April pitchers ever, but keeping the 38-year-old the following month is a bad move. Yes, his 44333 QA log depicts a consistently effective pitcher with intriguing upside, however his 1.38 G-F and 3.0 K/9 better illustrate Glavine's limited upside. He simply dominates few opponents at this point in his career, and while Sunday's start in San Diego doesn't worry me, upcoming appearances against the Brewers, Diamondbacks, Cardinals, and Phillies offer a high likelihood of qualitative problems. Deal him now before age and decreasing skills again combine to sabotage an initially strong start by the future Hall of Famer.

Ramon Ortiz, RH Starter, ANA: -1.67 ERA 
Yearly ERA increase between April and May:
2001: 1.80; 2002: 1.79; 2003: 1.95.
01-03	GS/G	IP	H/HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	16/16	105.0	101/14	69:34	9-7/0	3.60
May	15/15	95.2	109/20	69:30	3-7/0	5.27

04APR	4/4	15.2	28/3	15:\8	1-2/0	9.77

Texas twice forced Ortiz out in the middle of the third inning this year, and neither the Mariners not Athletics allowed him to finish the sixth. Not only does a career-worst .79 G-F indicate that he will continue to allow an abundance of home runs, Anaheim's surprisingly poor defense leaves his qualitative stats uncomfortably exposed. Only the Angels' great relief corps gives Ortiz a decent chance of earning some fantasy value in the near future, but his schedule isn't favorable. After starting in Minnesota tomorrow, Ortiz faces the Tigers, heads to New York and Baltimore, returns home to face the Orioles again, and then starts against Toronto and Boston. Of course, he also appears in danger of losing his rotation spot at any moment, making Ortiz a terrible gamble right now and someone you should deal based on his respectable skill history, supposed upside as a Pedro clone, and reasonable shot at a dozen wins as long as he continues starting..

Internet Challenge

SP(6)
Pedro Martinez: Sat:@TEX(J.Benoit)
Randy Johnson: Sat:@PHI(V.Padilla)
Mike Mussina: Sun:KC(J.Affeldt)
Roy Halladay: Fri:@CHW(M.Buehrle)
Tim Hudson: Sun:@TB(M.Hendrickson)
Javier Vazquez: Fri:KC(Br.Anderson)
Kerry Wood: Fri:@STL(W.Williams)
Shawn Chacon: 3 Home vs. ATL.

No starts: Schilling, Oswalt, Brown, Beckett, Contreras.

Mussina and Vazquez are the only automatics here, although Hudson also should be fine. Given the prolific Texas and Chicago offenses, Randy and Wood look like the next logical starts, and then since Chacon's pitching great, we'll run him this weekend at Coors.

The continued slumps of Ichiro, Wells, and Wilkerson keep them glued to our bench. Teixeira heads back into the lineup for the struggling Fullmer, and then since we need power, we'll deploy Crede at home over Kaz Matsui in San Diego.

The Umpire Hunter(18th lg; 547th overall)
Week 4b: April 30-May 1

C	Mike Piazza		990
C	Jason Varitek		680
1B	Mark Teixeira		760
1B	Josh Phelps		580
2B	Alfonso Soriano		1930
2B	Marcus Giles		990
3B	Eric Hinske		990
3B	Hank Blalock		850
SS	Alex Rodriguez		2010
SS	Alex Cintron		450
OF	Carlos Beltran		1760
OF	Juan Pierre		1470
OF	Carl Crawford		1040
OF	Scott Podsednik		980
OF	Richard Hidalgo	970
OF	Adam Dunn		690
DH	Joe Crede		600
DH	Miguel Cabrera		570

SP	Randy Johnson		1550
SP	Mike Mussina		1380
SP	Tim Hudson		1320
SP	Javier Vazquez		1280
SP	Kerry Wood		1190
SP	Shawn Chacon		630
RP	Eric Gagne		1890
RP	David Riske		820
RP	Arthur Rhodes		800
RP	Matt Herges		670

Total Salary for Week 4b: 	29850

Today's Fantasy Rx: The Cardinals, Marlins, Devil Rays, and White Sox currently own the best defenses in baseball for preventing hits; acquiring pitchers on any of these teams is a good idea given the increased likelihood of low qualitative stats. Conversely, the Twins, Angels, Diamondbacks, and Reds respectively possess the two worst defenses in each league. Exercise caution when targeting pitchers on any of these teams due to the greater chance of ERA and WHIP problems.