Today's Fantasy Rx

I'm going to spend the first four days of this week on players whose May performances historically differ dramatically from their stats in April. To qualify for consideration, a position player must have at least 100 AB in both April and May over the last three years while showing a change, positive or negative, of .050 BA and .100 OPS between the two months. They also must show either an improvement or decline in both BA and OPS from April to May while registering at least 25 at-bats in both months in each of the last three years.

Jim Edmonds, OF, STL: -.120 BA; -.360 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between April and May:
2001: .170/.386; 2002: .025/.211; 2003: .168/.484.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
April	215	42:56	.381/.483/.740
May	272	46:79	.261/.374/.489

04APR	71	11:21	.282/.369/.577

While Edmonds normally enjoys an outstanding April before contact problems limit his May production, a poor .69 contact rate this month leaves him with a relatively low .930 OPS. At least a career-best 4.36 #P/PA demonstrates increasing patience, and a .86 G-F doesn't suggest any decrease in his long-term power potential. Fortunately for Edmonds' owners, Tony LaRussa also has left him batting after Pujols rather than follow-through on his spring training plan to bat Edmonds second. Of course, owning the 33-year-old, injury-prone outfielder is a risky proposition at any time, yet he continues to produce relatively solid overall numbers, albeit not ones commensurate with the MVP-caliber performance he normally enjoys at the beginning of the year. Edmonds still is a great player who possesses significant fantasy value, however feel free to shop him if you see an opportunity to acquire a young star with more upside.

Sandy Alomar, Jr., C, CHW: -.131 BA; -.349 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between April and May:
2001: .111/.216; 2002: .145/.436; 2003: .145/.465.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
April	151	6:8	.325/.350/.470
May	139	4:10	.194/.219/.252

04APR	28	0:3	.286/.267/.429

A 3.42 #P/PA and .85 G-F suggest that Alomar certainly could remain productive all season since Chicago will keep him in a rather limited role. He never owned much plate discipline, so his current marks appear right on target, and a solid contact rate insures a respectable batting average. Unfortunately, he also isn't likely to produce particularly helpful numbers, so if you own him as your second catcher now, deal or cut him. If your replacement also struggles, Alomar's May problems at least should allow you to add him again in a month.

Paul Konerko, 1B, CHW: -.105 BA; -.253 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between April and May:
2001: .181/.441; 2002: .076/.147; 2003: .057/.188.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
April	276	18:34	.319/.359/.518
May	280	24:48	.214/.285/.339

04APR	68	7:3	.309/.390/.574

Everything about his start suggests Konerko is primed for a career year. His insanely good .96 contact rate, .10 walk rate, 4.04 #P/PA, and a .87 G-F all are career-best marks. After nearly a month of action, he continues to demonstrate impressive plate discipline and excellent power potential against both left-handed and right-handed pitchers, and his quantitative stats appear much too low for this skill set. Konerko should enjoy a productive May for the first time in years on his way to approaching $30 for the first time. Despite his recent trends, I confidently can recommend you target him in almost every league before he swats a half-dozen homers within a fortnight during the next couple of months.

Jose Cruz, Jr., OF, TB: -.073 BA; -.250 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between April and May:
2001: .079/.259; 2002: .038/.059; 2003: .092/.417.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
April	277	43:64	.289/.384/.491
May	264	28:78	.216/.288/.337

04APR	49	7:13	.224/.321/.367

Few people would notice a downturn by Cruz right now as his roto owners should be focused on the double-digit price they probably paid for .224/2/3/2 fantasy line this month. Despite a career-best .76 G-F and good plate patience, Cruz's .75 contact rate continues to sabotage his overall performance. Unfortunately, none of his current averages appears particularly dissimilar from his normal performance. Expect him to hold a sub-.700 OPS for another month before enjoying a respectable summer, so wait for now unless you can exchange Cruz for a package that approximates his pre-season value.

Rob Fick, 1B/DH/OF, TB: -.076 BA; -.229 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between April and May:
2001: .099/.313; 2002: .106/.305; 2003: .026/.081.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
April	167	21:22	.341/.418/.557
May	253	15:43	.265/.303/.443

04APR	29	2:2	.310/.355/.517

His single appearance at catcher opened up intriguing possibilities for Fick owners in some leagues, and I suspect all his owners like his overall stats given he probably cost a buck or two to fill a COR or UT. Yet while he could continue posting helpful fantasy numbers for another few months after his approaching May downturn, look to deal Fick now since his value will never return to this level in 2004. A career-worst 3.72 #P/PA and very worrisome 1.22 G-F indicate Fick might be adopting the free-swinging approach of most of his new teammates. He also won't see regular playing time at any position barring injury. Despite his currently decent plate discipline, use the carrot of his potential catcher-eligibility to swap Fick for a cornerman with more upside like Travis Lee.

Carlos Delgado, 1B, TOR: -.063 BA; -.224 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between April and May:
2001: .067/.387; 2002: .053/.148; 2003: .067/.137.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
April	257	69:66	.315/.473/.658
May	310	52:89	.252/.368/.539

04APR	79	12:16	.253/.362/.456

Since April normally easily ranks as Delgado's most productive month, not to mention his only month with an OPS much over .900 prior to August, his relatively poor performance should concern his owners. The nearly team-wide offensive struggles of both Canadian teams might be the most surprising story of this season since both the Jays and Expos posted excellent hitting stats last year. At least he hasn't crashed to the level of Vernon Wells, but despite no change in Delgado's power potential, a career-worst 3.61 #P/PA suggests an impatient approach the plate could be responsible for his problems. Since he could remain mired in this slump for the next few months, shop Delgado to see if you can find someone willing to pair a fair price in the expectation that Delgado will reach the 1.019 OPS last year rather than slowly climb near the .950 OPS he averaged the previous two seasons.

Shea Hillenbrand, 3B/1B, ARI: -.073 BA; -.207 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between April and May:
2001: .115/.319; 2002: .038/.104; 2003: .070/.220.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
April	285	13:38	.340/.378/.530
May	296	7:46	.267/.289/.412

04APR48	6:5	.188/.286/.375

After Chad Tracy headed to the minors as the last cut of spring training, he wisely began 2004 right where he finished 2003 in Albuquerque by mashing the ball for two weeks to earn his way to the majors. Since Tracy hasn't slumped even slightly since joining Arizona, Hillenbrand might stay on the bench indefinitely. However, Hillenbrand's poor batting average also has camouflaged an across-the-board skill improvement. A .13 walk rate, .90 contact rate, 3.82 #P/PA, and 1.24 G-F all rank as career-best marks for him, suggesting he could enjoy a surprisingly effective season at the plate if he can find regular at-bats. Target Hillenbrand anywhere you can add him at a relative discount thanks to his historically poor plate discipline and presumed loss of playing time.

Pokey Reese, SS/2B, BOS: -.097 BA; -.205 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between April and May:
2001: .052/.109; 2002: .198/.470; 2003: .077/.107.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
April	196	10:46	.270/.310/.362
May	156	16:39	.173/.249/.218

04APR	55	3:12	.200/.237/.236

If Reese doesn't find a way to improve in May, even Boston doesn't need Reese's defense badly enough to keep him in the lineup after Nomar returns. Reese's relatively poor across-the-board skills give us no indication that his batting average will head upward any time soon, especially since he normally enjoys his best month in April. Try to find a team sufficiently desperate for steals to deal for Reese since you otherwise need to find a way to replace him with someone like Nick Punto or Chone Figgins to keep his batting average from suffocating your qualitative stats.

J.T. Snow, 1B, SF: -.078 BA; -.165 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between April and May:
2001: .021/.042; 2002: .088/.180; 2003: .124/.268.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
April	240	42:49	.271/.387/.392
May	223	34:51	.193/.305/.309

04APR	68	8:15	.235/.329/.338

Almost all fantasy baseball participants know that J.T. Snow no longer possesses any semblance of power potential. Unfortunately, after developing quite respectable plate discipline over the last several years, a career-worst 3.57 #P/PA suggests that Snow no longer merits owning. As these skills otherwise appear in line with Snow's norms, his diminished patience appears mostly responsible for his weak batting average. He also turned 36 earlier this year, and after considering his overall ineffectiveness, Snow's historical slump into summer, and the low likelihood of a rebound, deal or cut him immediately as even a mild rebound won't push him beyond a couple bucks of value.

Mike Matheny, C, STL: -.073 BA; -.164 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between April and May:
2001: .106/.225; 2002: .028/.146; 2003: .078/.130.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
April	214	14:44	.280/.322/.416
May	174	25:31	.207/.310/.264

04APR	68	2:13	.279/.306/.456

Hopefully you enjoyed Matheny's respectable performance this month. While he didn't match the .315 BA he posted last April, he demonstrated impressive power and provided nice overall production. Matheny is a good option as a second catcher in April and September, but owning him during the intervening months offers no obvious benefit given his generally awful skills. You must deal or cut him by your next transaction period as he almost assuredly will hover near the Mendoza line for the next four months.

Geoff Jenkins, OF, MIL: -.052 BA; -.164 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between April and May:
2001: .044/.294; 2002: .020/.017; 2003: .061/.176.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
April	260	30:75	.296/.377/.550
May	254	23:68	.244/.310/.453

04APR	83	12:19	.277/.371/.518

Over the past three seasons, after accumulating 260 April at-bats and 254 May AB, Jenkins then managed only 236 June AB, 173 July AB, 101 August AB, 82 September AB, and finally 21 October AB. Given this steady progression and Jenkins' long injury history, expecting him to maintain his current level of production all season is an unhealthy belief to hold. Since he normally enjoys his best combination of health and effectiveness in April, look to deal Jenkins now since his skills aren't so good that we can expect a career year. Moving him as soon as possible for equivalent value based on his 2004 numbers to date seems like the logical course of action.

Alfonso Soriano, 2B, TEX: -.068 BA; -.136 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between April and May:
2001: .004/.024; 2002: .054/.083; 2003: .141/.310.

01-03	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
April	340	15:68	.332/.367/.547
May	333	15:85	.264/.301/.477

04APR	84	5:13	.345/.391/.440

While I expected a strong BA thanks to the change in ballparks despite a career-worst 3.37 #P/PA, this power outage makes little sense. The Rangers own a team line of .314/.362/.491, so nearly everyone else is producing excellent quantitative stats. A .88 G-F also gives no indication of significant skill degradation. Since Soriano's BA and speed continue to rank him with most valuable AL players, I see no reason not to wait in the expectation that his pending power surge will compensate for his eventual BA problems. You even could explore the possibility of acquiring Soriano if his current owner needs power more than speed, however only grab him now if the trade cost is less than the $40 he should earn this year.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Montreal finally promoted long-time Rotohelp favorite Val Pascucci to the majors on Monday in the latest move of Montreal's quest to field a respectable offense. The losses of Nick Johnson and Carl Everett robbed the Expos of the heart of their lineup, although if Frank Robinson gives him a chance, Pascucci could echo Johnson's probable numbers in regular playing time. Thus far in 2004, Pascucci owns a .319/.390/.625 with 5 HR, 18 RBI, 19 R, and an 8:16 BB:K in 72 AB for AAA Edmonton(PCL). Considering he posted a .281/.419/.447 with 15 HR, 85 RBI, 80 R, and a 101:132 BB:K in 459 for Edmonton last season, the 25-year-old first baseman and outfield appears fully ready to produce in the majors. Pascucci could approach double-digit value even in limited at-bats, and while his BA won't help you, he owns obvious power and excellent plate discipline. Target him in any NL-only league where you need the quantitative boost of a young cornerman with intriguing upside.