Today's Fantasy Rx

Once again, "regular guys", 2003 champions of local leagues picked by John Hunt, comprise about half of each LABR league. Last year Hunt labeled them "Megaregulars", but now they're just "regular guys" again, though considering "Megaregular" Mark Allen beat the site writers last year in AL LABR, hopefully an NL competitor will match that feat this year.

To make this a little easier for those of you following along in the Sports Weekly 2004 Fantasy Guide, I'll review the teams in the order that Sports Weekly lists them.

Please refer to the LABR National League rosters here.

Owner: John Hunt
Site: Sports Weekly
$ Left: $2.
Split: $172H/$186P = 67/33.
Reserve roster: Julio Franco, Jeff Cirillo, Brian Bruney, Doug Davis, Chin-Feng Chen, and Miguel Ojeda

Nice pick: Orlando Cabrera, $30; Renteria cost $4 more, and assuming Hunt leverages Cabrera's likely excellent first half into an All-Star Break upgrade elsewhere, this pick will look fantastic.
Top sleeper: Felix Rodriguez, $7; considering we fully expect Matt Herges to assume the closer duties if Nen can't pitch, this seems a little high for a pitcher with declining skills. Of course, FRod also could triple this price if he somehow steals the job from Herges.
Potential bust: Preston Wilson, $34; he barely reached this price in a career year, and considering his uncertain health, this bid seems risky.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Impressively, none.
Early good/bad luck: Although Wilson Alvarez($5) seems somewhat likely to win a rotation slo, Jeffrey Hammonds($2) will miss the first month of the season and John Patterson($1) appears headed to the bullpen at best.
Category to trade: Possibly power.

Normally a high-risk roto strategy involves high-upside, however Hunt drafted almost entirely peak and past-peak players without obtaining any obvious bargains. While we like Cabrera a lot, Hunt only spent $10 or more on four other position players, and Wilson, Jim Edmonds($25), Cliff Floyd($24), and Ray Durham($15) are significant injury risks. If everyone he drafted stays healthy and productive, he'll own of the league's best offenses, but the odds of that scenario occurring are quite small.

He similarly selected a high-risk, low-upside strategy for his pitching staff. Pairing Rocky Biddle($11) and Shawn Chacon($12) could lead to disastrous qualitative marks and 60 saves, making them decent values on a team with a few quality starters. Randy Johnson($27) and Kevin Millwood($19) certainly meet that qualification, yet filling out a rotation with Alvarez, Patterson, Kaz Ishii($2), Dustin Hermanson($1), and Elmer Dessens($1) will drag his ERA and WHIP way down. As much as we like Millwood, $20 is safe ceiling on bids or him, and although Randy could dominate, paying more on a 40-year-old pitcher aside from Mark Prior was an unnecessary gamble.

Summary: While Hunt drafted a team with the potential to compete in every category, I just don't see this team properly gelling any time soon. At least one of his outfielders likely will miss significant time this year, and if he can't stabilize an expectedly volatile pitching staff, he'll slide right into the second division.

I'll continue tomorrow with the other six teams and my picks for the top finishers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Steve Moyer wore a Ken Griffey, Jr. jersey to the draft, and he spent $19 on Ken Griffey, Jr. While I have no problem with Steve's chutzpah given his long LABR history, telegraphing your intentions in this manner generally is a bad idea. Of course, wearing a Griffey jersey and then refusing to bid on him would be an interesting strategy, but usually owners that wear a player jersey to a draft end up drafting that player while paying more than otherwise necessary to acquire him.