Today's Fantasy Rx

We continue our look at inter-site drafts today with an examination of this year's American League FSIC draft.

To determine the hitting/pitching split in this 5x5, 27-round draft, I assigned first round picks $27, second round pick $26, and so forth down to the $2 26th rd picks and $1 27th rounders. Snake draft strategies don't make this split quite as important as in auction leagues, however it still gives us an idea of where an owner focuses his assets.

I'll discuss the teams in the order of first round picks. Like all 12-teams snake drafts, the first owner also picked 24th and 25th, the second owner picked 23rd and 26th, etc.

Please refer to the FSIC American League rosters here.

Owner: Michael Marcinkus
Site: The Commish Online
Split: $242H/$136P = 64/36.
Reserve roster: B.J. Upton, Ryan Ludwick, Jesus Colome, and Buddy Groom.

Nice pick: Mark Kotsay, R14; he probably merited a selection in the first 10 rounds based on his upside as Oakland's leadoff hitter.
Top sleeper: Matt Anderson, R21; if he wins the closer's job back as he expect, netting a closer, even the Tigers' closer, is a great selection in the 21st round.
Potential bust: Jorge Posada, R3; picking him this early, especially ahead of IRod is a questionable move given Posada's age and the low likelihood of him improving on his 2003 numbers.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): B.J. Upton, R24, who probably needs a whole year in the minors.
Early good/bad luck: Jeremy Affeldt, R10, has stayed free of blisters, and Matt Riley, R21, still should secure a spot in Baltimore's rotation. While Ryan Ludwick, R25, could help by May, he'll open the year in the minors.
Category to trade: Offense, thanks to selecting a remarkably solid core of Jason Giambi, Posada, Troy Glaus, Frank Thomas, Juan Gonzalez, Jose Valentin, and Jacque Jones from rounds two through eight.

While I wouldn't have taken Schilling in the first round over someone like Nomar, Schilling gives him an excellent staff ace for a relatively low risk rotation of Miguel Batista, Jeremy Affedlt, Kyle Lohse, Ted Lilly, Jon Garland, and Riley. Adding Brendan Donnelly for qualitative protection in the 18th round was another great idea, giving Marcinkus a decent chance of finishing with no less than 10 points in every pitching category except saves.

Adding solid starting position players like Bobby Kielty(R12), Kotsay, and Fernando Vina(R15) in the middle rounds also gives him a fundamentally solid quantitative base that should allow him to deal someone like Troy Glaus if he starts strong. His lack of steals is troubling, making Upton a better gamble here than for almost any other team, however he also overdrafted a couple guys like Posada, which keeps this offense from appearing overly dominant.

Summary: Aside from largely ignoring steals and saves, Marcinkus drafted a team of high-skills players that should keep him in competition for first throughout the season.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Teams in one-year snake drafts almost always should avoid selecting any prospect below AAA in the spring. The odds of someone like Joe Blanton or even B.J. Upton contributing during the first few months of the year are quite small. Gamble instead on a right-handed middle reliever with the potential to luck into several saves or wins, or if you're looking to fill reserve slots, target pitchers with decent skill histories at any level who should win rotation spots. Esteban Loaiza fell to the end of most drafts last year, and while Nate Cornejo and Jose Acevedo aren't going to contend for the Cy Young award, both pitchers, along with a dozen other mostly ignored starters, only need good defense and a little luck to approach double-digit value.