Today's Fantasy Rx

Baltimore Orioles: #4 and #5 starter; primary contenders: Eric DuBose, Matt Riley, Omar Daal, Rick Bauer, and John Stephens.

Starting second basemen; primary contenders: Jerry Hairston, Jr. and Brian Roberts.

Starting DH; primary contenders: David Segui, Marty Cordova, Jack Cust, and B.J. Surhoff.

The Orioles' second baseman is perhaps the easiest starting position to determine in the majors. Barring injury, Jerry Hairston's higher salary makes him the automatic starter if nothing changes. However, I fully expect Baltimore to deal either Hairston or Roberts, preferably the former, as teams like the Yankees, Astros, Cardinals, Rockies, and Dodgers all could use an upgrade among their respective starting middle infielders. View both Hairston and Roberts as starters, however don't target either right now unless your league allows you to keep players who switch leagues.

Baltimore's DH situation is far more complicated. A quick look at the projected performances for the four candidates at least limits the field:

Batter	 BA/OBP/SLG	
Segui	.270/.357/.405
Cordova	.265/.354/.465
Cust	.268/.368/.523
Surhoff	.284/.345/.388

Surhoff may possess the highest likely batting average, but his power and patience deficiencies make him a terrible choice. Cust obviously offers the most upside, and if the Orioles believe they can contend, he should spend all year as the everyday DH since he even lacks an obvious platoon split. If Baltimore believes they require more rebuilding, then the alternative to Cust is a platoon of Segui/Cordova. When healthy, the two veterans nicely complement each other's skills, so a logical course for the Orioles involves opening the season with this platoon. Then, as soon as any team indicates a willingness to deal a solid pitching prospect for either player, Baltimore should deal Segui or Cordova, even eating most of their contracts if necessary to secure a better prospect. Cust can assume any extra at-bats, and with both veterans hopefully departed by the All-Star Break, he can established himself over the second half of the season.

Unfortunately, a job-sharing arrangement among all three players is the probable solution. Given the injury problems of Segui and Cordova, only Cust merits much fantasy consideration right now, so see if you can grab him for a few dollars later in your draft.

Sidney Ponson, Rodrigo Lopez, and Kurt Ainsworth appear virtually assured rotation spots for the Orioles. A breakdown of the projected skill ratios for the other candidates to start for Baltimore illustrates the logical candidates:

Pitcher		K/9	BB/9	HR/9	
DuBose		5.9	3.3	.9
Riley		7.6	3.9	1.2
Daal		5.1	3.0	1.2
Bauer		6.4	3.8	1.4 (as a reliever)
Stephens	6.8	3.2	1.4

As only Riley and perhaps Stephens possess significant long-term upside here, I don't believe any of these pitchers absolutely require a rotation spot. However, DuBose, due largely to his very impressive September performance, not to mention these solid skill ratios, at least offers the least downside here. Bauer definitely belongs in the bullpen since he barely owns acceptable skills as a reliever and never demonstrated significant potential as a starter in the minors. Also, despite Daal's solid walk rate, his unimpressive marks in the other two categories suggest the Orioles need to focus on their youngsters, especially considering he ranked among baseball's worst starters last year.

Between Riley and Stephens, the Orioles appear committed to Riley, especially since he owns better dominance and the scouts like him a lot more than the soft-tossing Stephens. Unless former top prospect Erik Bedard, who spent most of 2003 recovering from Tommy John Surgery, shocks everyone in spring training, Eric DuBose and Matt Riley should break camp in Baltimore's rotation.

Boston Red Sox: No significant role currently appears available on the Red Sox. Among pitchers, Keith Foulke will close, Byung-Hyun Kim is the fifth starter, and Bronson Arroyo is the top starting alternative in case of injury. Regarding the Red Sox's starting lineup, despite apparent competition at second base and designated hitter, expect fairly straight platoons at both positions. Ellis Burks will DH against most left-handed hitters while either Kevin Millar plays 1B and Trot Nixon plays RF or David Ortiz plays 1B and Kevin Millar plays RF. At second base, Pokey Reese and Mark Bellhorn will alternate in an unconventional offense/defense platoon. Reese will start when groundball pitchers like Derek Lowe and Byung-Hyun Kim pitch, and Bellhorn should play behind Pedro Martinez, Curt Schilling, and Tim Wakefield. Expect both infielders to register around 300 at-bats as Boston shouldn't carry another middle infielder.

New York Yankees: Starting second basemen; primary contenders: Enrique Wilson, Miguel Cairo, Homer Bush, and Erick Almonte.

While I probably should go into an in-depth discussion of the merits of each of these infielders, I highly doubt any of them will receive many starts for the Yankees past April. New York retains enough decent prospects to deal for either an excellent defensive second baseman or a promising all-around player, and they almost certainly will deal for someone, perhaps even Baltimore's Jerry Hairston or Brian Roberts, by Mother's Day, if not sooner. Gambling even a dollar on a player with a recent skill history as bad as the foursome listed here makes little sense to me.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays: #3, #4, and #5 starters; primary contenders: Mark Hendrickson, Doug Waechter, Damian Moss, Dewon Brazelton, Paul Abbott, John Halama, Rob Bell, Jorge Sosa, and Chad Gaudin.

Starting third basemen; primary contenders: Geoff Blum, Damian Rolls, Jared Sandberg, and Fernando Tatis.

Current reports indicate that Blum and Rolls will platoon at third base. While I consider Sandberg and Tatis mildly intriguing sleepers, neither player has demonstrated enough overall skill over the past couple of years to allow me to recommend them at this time. Both Blum and Rolls are worth a few bucks due to their respective power and speed upsides, but I view them as cornermen as best since neither offers great offensive potential even in a full-time role.

In Tampa's rotation, only Victor Zambrano and Jeremi Gonzalez appear assured of starting slots. As I don't expect Todd Ritchie, Ken Cloude, or Dicky Gonzalez to receive an extended look this spring, the following nine pitchers are the primary candidates for the remaining spots:

Pitcher		K/9	BB/9	HR/9	 
Hendrickson	5.3	1.9	.8
Waechter	5.9	3.2	1.3
Moss		4.4	4.1	.9	
Brazelton	5.6	4.1	1.1
Abbott		6.5	4.3	1.1
Halama		4.4	2.8	1.1	
R. Bell		6.6	3.2	.9
J. Sosa		5.6	4.0	1.1
Gaudin		5.7	3.0	1.0

Hendrickson's walk rate makes him the only automatic choice here since he probably possesses the least immediate downside as well as one of the best upsides of these pitchers. The walk rates of Brazelton, Sosa, Abbott, and Moss probably should keep them out of the rotation as the first two could use more minor league time, Abbott's skills appear largely gone, and Moss pitched quite poorly in 2003. Given Gaudin's limited upper-level experience, he probably belongs in the minors even though he also could succeed now.

So Waechter, Bell, and Halama all look like decent rotation options, and after Waechter's rather stunning September performance, he deserves a couple of months as a major league starter. Since Tampa doesn't need a fifth starter until almost the beginning of May, I'd like to see Bell head to AAA for a couple weeks. If he pitches well, the Rays should recall him since he definitely offers more upside than Halama. Otherwise, while he should pitch better in relief, I see no reason Halama can't start for a few weeks until any of the young right-handers merit a promotion.

The two Tampa starters worth immediate fantasy consideration despite no official roster spots are Mark Hendrickson and Doug Waechter.

Toronto Blue Jays: Closer: Aquilino Lopez, Justin Speier, Terry Adams, and Kerry Ligtenberg.

The Blue Jays' decision to dump Cliff Politte and add three new right-handed relievers leaves their closer situation very uncertain heading into spring training. Aquilino Lopez might be the favorite based on his 2003 performance, but the following foursome all appear capable of closing:

Pitcher		K/9	BB/9	HR/9	
Aq. Lopez	7.9	3.3	1.0
Speier		6.6	3.0	1.5
Adams		6.2	3.3	.5
Ligtenberg	7.1	2.9	1.3

Ligtenberg's strikeout and wake rates make him somewhat appealing, but these ratios don't display his problems with left-handed batters; he's a specialist who belongs in middle relief. The other three relievers offer largely somewhat similar skills, but each possesses a potential advantage over his teammates in the race for saves. Lopez was 12-for-12 in save opportunities for Toronto in 2003 last year and owns the best strikeout rate. Adams is the safest pick due to his excellent ground-fly rate. Lastly, Speier has the most closing experience, and slotting his homer rate at the end of the game minimizes his downside, particularly since allowing a solo homer while protecting a 2-3 run lead isn't a particularly troublesome problem.

Frankly, the logical solution is to employ a closer-by-committee, which allows Carlos Tosca to appropriately use his relievers based on maximizing match-ups. Lopez currently seems a slight favorite over Speier for the majority of save opportunities, however after thoroughly examining their abilities, bidding into double-digits for any of these relievers is a mistake. The best course of action here probably involves watching other owners bid both Speier and Lopez to $15 while you snag Adams for a couple bucks and then watch him save a half-dozen games. Even if Toronto declares an official closer prior to your draft, exercise extreme caution in bidding here since the Jays have no reason not to keep an open mind regarding their bullpen.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Anyone drafting early in the spring should consider the following players sleepers since they all should break camp in the majors and I expect them to win significant roles: Baltimore's Jack Cust and Eric DuBose, Boston's Mark Bellhorn, and Tampa's Mark Hendrickson and Doug Waechter.