Today's Fantasy Rx

American League Relief Pitchers with $-3 DV

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
2003 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2003.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 70/30 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2003 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2003 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

140.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jason Gilfillan		2	0	7.71	1.96	12	10	22	16.1
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-5
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	-3		-6

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Kansas City for my comments on Gilfillan.

141.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Alex Herrera		0	0	9.00	2.14	6	8	7	7
CLE Indians		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-3		-5		-2
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	-3		-6		-3

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Cleveland for my comments on Herrera.

142.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Rick DeHart		0	0	13.50	2.50	1	2	8	4
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-3		-5		-2
2003 Age: 33	5x5:	-3		-6		-3

While his brief big league appearance tells us little, DeHart's performance at AAA Omaha(PCL) at least gives us some idea of his potential. He compiled a 4.82 ERA on a 17:7 K:BB in 28 IP over 25 G with 38 H and 1 HR, so although his control gives him some value to the Royals, his weak dominance makes him a highly risky roto pick. Even if DeHart earns another shot in the majors, he doesn't appear worthy of fantasy consideration.

143.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
J.C. Romero		2	0	5.00	1.71	50	42	66	63
MIN Twins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:S	4x4:	-3		-5		4		5
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	-2		-4		4		2

A nearly across-the-board skill slump caused Romero's roto value to crater in 2003. Despite the departure to key short relievers Eddie Guardado and LaTroy Hawkins, he probably doesn't rank among the Twins' top three choices to close this year. Fortunately, Ron Gardenhire likely at least will give him a look in spring training for a significant late-inning role. Romero remained a dominant lefty specialist; right-handed hitters just obliterated most of his offerings. If his control rebounds and he receives a little more defensive help, he should emerge as anything from reasonable roster filler to a top closer, however don't roster Romero until you see him pitching closer to the level of effectiveness he displayed in 2002.

144.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Ryan Bukvich		1	0	9.58	2.03	8	9	12	10.1
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-6		1		3
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	-3		-6		0		1

With five right-handed relievers already essentially guaranteed roster spots on the Royals, Bukvich will need a lucky break to see more than another cup-of-coffee this year. Unfortunately, not only don't his terrible 7.13 ERA on a 28:28 K:BB and .98 G-F in 35.1 career big league innings don't suggest any pending improvement, his 2003 performance at AAA Omaha(PCL) indicates relatively little immediate upside. A 4.91 ERA on a 4:25 K:BB in 36.2 IP over 34 G simply isn't impressive, so don't include Bukvich in your 200 fantasy plans.

145.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jason Grimsley		2	0	5.16	1.65	58	36	88	75
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-6		2		2
2003 Age: 36	5x5:	-2		-4		2		2

Grimsley wisely re-upped with Kansas City for an even million, a contract the club will regret if he doesn't approach his success in either of the two previous seasons. The shocking stat here is that a year after he surged in the second half, Grimsley imploded after the All-Star break in 2003, shifting from a 4.14 ERA on a solid 40:17 K:BB in 50 IP with 52 H and 4 HR to a 7.20 ERA on an 18:19 K:BB in 25 IP with 36 H and 2 HR. Normally I'd blame an injury for such an extreme breakdown, but assuming the Royals' doctors approved of re-signing Grimsley, I don't know what to expect from him this year since his stats still describe a moderately dominant, extreme groundball pitcher. Of course, unless MacDougal, Sullivan, and Leskanic all struggle terribly in the spring, you won't have to bother even considering Grimsley since he shouldn't see any save opportunities and he lacks the solid control I desire when searching for low-risk roster filler.

146.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Aaron Myette		0	0	23.63	3.38	1	2	7	2.2
CLE Indians		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-6		-2
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	-3		-6		-2

Although he heads to the National League for the first time after spending parts of five seasons with AL teams, I don't believe signing with Cincinnati was a good idea for Myette as the Reds already have over a dozen quality right-handers searching for roster spots. His 2003 minor league performance, split between AAA Buffalo(IL) and AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, included a 4.39 ERA on a 79:43 K:BB in 92.1 IP over 11 GS(34G) with 83 H and 8 HR. Considering he pitched much better when starting, I still see some long-term upside for Myette. Unfortunately, his command difficulties still suggest he needs to compile a couple of decent AAA seasons before he sees another extended opportunity in the majors.

147.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Chad Durbin		0	0	7.27	2.42	8	3	18	8.2
CLE Indians		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-6
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	-3		-6

Cleveland's failure to add a free agent starter, combined with the Tommy John surgeries of Brian Tallet and Billy Traber, leaves Durbin in the middle of the spring training competition for the last two slots in the Indians' rotation. Despite his poor performance in three late-season outings in the majors, a 1.27 G-F, 8.3 K/9, and 3.1 BB/9 suggest some upside. His 64:16 K:BB in 58.2 IP over 10 GS with 51 H and 9 HR at AAA Buffalo(IL) also indicates a resurgence for Durbin after poor performance and injuries due to abuse at a young age by the Royals nearly ended his career severely prematurely. While I still see enough downside to recommend avoiding Durbin for now in all but the deepest of leagues, he owns enough fundamental skills to merit a long look as soon as he strings together a few decent starts.

148.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Aaron Taylor		0	0	8.53	1.82	9	6	17	12.2
SEA Mariners		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-6		-1
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	-3		-6		-2

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Seattle for my comments on Taylor.

149.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Adam Bernero		1	0	5.87	1.43	80	54	137	133.1
DET/COL		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-6		4
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	-1		-3		5

Although I still like Bernero's long-term upside, pitching in Colorado gives him little roto value, particularly given the inane decision to move Shawn Chacon to the closer's role. Bernero possesses good command and can shut down right-handers, but like almost all Rockies' relievers, he doesn't belong on roto rosters.

150.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Shane Loux		1	0	7.12	1.62	8	12	37	30.1
DET Tigers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-6		-2
2003 Age: 24	5x5:	-3		-6		-3

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Detroit for my comments on Loux.

151.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Bob Howry		0	0	12.46	3.23	4	3	11	4.1
BOS Red Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:L	4x4:	-3		-6		2		5
2003 Age: 30	5x5:	-3		-6		2		R

Ignore his awful performance in Boston. Howry pitched well at AAA Pawtucket(IL), compiling a 1.06 ERA on a 10:1 K:BB in 17 IP over 13 G with 14 H and 1 HR, despite requiring mid-season surgery to repair an elbow nerve. The Indians signed him in December and they expect him to earn a bullpen spot if he recovers fully by spring training. Of course, you don't want to gamble on Howry until he again demonstrates solid skills in the majors, especially since Wickman, Riske, Jose Jimenez, and Scott Stewart all appear in front of him in the competition for save opportunities, but Howry could emerge as decent roster filler during the season.

152.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Tanyon Sturtze		7	0	5.94	1.68	54	43	107	89.1
TOR Blue Jays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		-6		-1
2003 Age: 32	5x5:	-2		-4		0		4

Since Toronto's signing of Sturtze never made much sense, his struggles didn't surprise me as much as the Jays' decision to keep him on the roster all season. Considering his relatively poor skills across-the-board, I won't be surprised if he can't even find an invitation to spring training. Barring an unexpected skill rebound on a team with a good defense, Sturtze only should see more time in the majors for teams in desperate need of a long reliever to protect their youngsters from abuse. He similarly never should spend any more time on fantasy teams.

50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '04 continues tomorrow with more American League relievers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Although Durbin, Taylor, Loux, and Howry own the skills necessary to post fairly friendly roto numbers, only one of today's pitchers could emerge as a significant early in the year. In the wide-open Minnesota pen, J.C. Romero remains on the short list of pitchers capable of winning the closer's job. We know Gardenhire will consider a left-hander after keeping Guardado in that role in recent years, but even though Joe Nathan, Juan Rincon, and Carlos Silva all could impress, and Romero's poor 2003 won't help him, a good spring could boost his roto value into double-digits.