Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Starting Pitchers with $-5 DV

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
2003 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2003.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 70/30 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2003 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2003 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

99.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jonathan Johnson		0	0	5.87	2.28	7	15	20	15.1
HOU Astros		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-5		-9
2003 Age: 29	5x5:	-5		-9

Despite his fairly young age and a respectable half-season at AAA New Orleans(PCL), including a 5-4 record and 3.92 ERA on a 62:27 K:BB in 78 IP with 7 H and 4 HR, Johnson informed Houston of his desire to retire from baseball in July. The Rangers rushed him through their system after selecting him from Florida State with the seventh overall pick of the 1995 draft, and yet he only received two appearances in the majors prior to 2000 even though he pitched reasonably well at AAA in 1998. Arm problems began limiting his innings, and then his command disappeared, leading Texas to sell him to Arizona in 2001. He continued struggling with the Diamondbacks, earning his release at the end of June in 2000, but after signing with the Padres three weeks later, he dominated in twelve AAA appearances and then continued pitching effectively in 16 outings in San Diego. Unfortunately, they couldn't find room for Johnson on their 40-man roster, so he departed the organization for Houston last winter. I understand why he apparently grew so frustrated considering the Rangers' poor job of developing him and the lack of interest in his abilities after compiling a strong year of his stats, but retiring this season indicates an obvious lack of desire that likely would have precluded future success. While Johnson still possesses enough talent to return to professional baseball at a high level, I don't believe he'll regain his skills to the point that he contributes to fantasy teams or even earns a regular spot in the majors.

50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '04 continues tomorrow with more National League starters.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Drafting a pitcher at this level of value is nearly always risky, especially considering that several of these players might not even see the majors in 2004. The short list of intriguing options includes John Patterson, who may finally emerge as a solid starter for Arizona, Kevin Jarvis, who should contribute out of the bullpen for Seattle, and Damian Moss, who could succeed if he signs with a strong defensive team. Pedro Astacio, who owns solid skills but needs to stay healthy, might be a good option depending on his new team. Scott Elarton and Denny Stark also finally might develop into solid options for Colorado. Of course, the uncertain roles of these pitchers means you need to monitor their situations during spring training; only Patterson appears a reasonable good gamble at the moment.