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January
15th
2004
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '04 D10
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Starting Pitchers with DV from $0 to $-2

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
2003 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2003.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 70/30 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2003 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2003 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.


58.WSERAWHIPKBBHIP
Darren Dreifort404.031.3867255860.1
LA DodgersDVAVRotohelpLABR/Tout
P:R    B:R4x4:0-1 41
2003 Age: 315x5:1051

When Dreifort eventually retires, his ever-increasing injury history means that Milton Bradley immediately will contract him to replace Cavity Sam in Operation since Dreifort suffers from a greater number of maladies. In 2003 alone, Dreifort suffered from a sore right hip during spring training, an arthritic right knee during the season that required "Tommy John [surgery] of the knee", and then arthroscopic surgery on his right hip to repair a tissue tear sustained during the rehab from his knee surgery. Of course, while Dreifort makes Elijah Price look like David Dunn, fantasy games still should consider Dreifort in spring drafts since his arm appears sound and he possesses the skills to emerge as a useful contributor. Unfortunately, the perpetually unhealthy Dreifort hasn't exceeded 100 innings in a season since 2000 and likely won't break that streak even if the Dodgers foolishly let him continue starting. The smart move is to slot him in middle relief as Paul Quantrill's replacement. Although spending $11M in each of the next two years on a decent middle reliever is a waste of resources, a healthy Dreifort in the bullpen is far preferable to seeing yet another "Los Angeles placed RHP Darren Dreifort on the 60-day DL" appear in the transaction column. Dreifort merits a gamble of a buck or two in most NL leagues, but definitely don't expect a significant profit and plan to deal him as soon as he posts a couple decent outings.


50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '04 continues tomorrow with more National League starters.


Today's Fantasy Rx: I see more decent starters with intriguing upside today than in probably any other group of NL starters this year, not to mention Danny Graves, who should resume closing for Cincinnati and likely save another 30 or more games. Darren Dreifort, Jeriome Robertson, Kurt Ainsworth, Edwin Jackson, Josh Fogg, Chris Capuano, Kevin Correia, Matt Kinney, Brett Tomko, and Dan Haren all should open the year as starting pitchers. While only Jackson appears relatively assured of success if he wins a rotation spot, all eight pitchers possess the skills to reach double-digit value. Even Amaury Telemaco is a good buy as a Phillies' reliever, so make sure to keep these players in mind during the latter stages of your draft.


Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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