Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Starting Pitchers with Double-digit PDV

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
2003 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2003.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 70/30 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2003 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2003 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

1.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jason Schmidt		17	0	2.34	.95	208	46	152	207.2
SF Giants		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	26		45		19		18
2003 Age: 30	5x5:	25		44		20		19

Considering he tore his right elbow tendon in August and yet gutted out the season despite doctors' recommendations to undergo surgery, Schmidt's 3-0 record and 3.18 ERA on a 32:5 K:BB in 28.1 September innings appear nearly unbelievable, not to mention his playoff win. Without that injury, Schmidt might have cruised to the extra three wins that should have enabled him to wrest the Cy Young from Eric Gagne. Of course, Schmidt still led the NL in ERA, WHIP, and OBA while finishing fourth in wins and strikeouts, numbers which give him a solid edge on Mark Prior among NL starting pitchers in roto. Essentially all of his splits depict a career year, so the only downside here is that he likely can't repeat this performance. Yet if he can maintain the career-best 2.0 walk rate that led to much of this success, an improved Giants' defense should allow a strong echo of these numbers. However, make sure Schmidt seems completely healthy by your draft before exceeding $20 by any significant amount.

50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '04 continues tomorrow with more National League starters.

Today's Fantasy Rx: With three of the top 9 NL starters now in other league, Schmidt and Nomo recovering from offseason surgery, and Prior, Wood, and Webb all weathering heavy workloads, Livan Hernandez might be the safest bet to repeat his performance in 2004. Of course, Prior and Webb should remain healthy, Maddux, Padilla, Wells, Millwood, and Clement all look like excellent buys, and Morris, Oswalt, and Lawrence should rebound, so I see plenty of targets worthy of $10-15 bids; attempt to stay in that range for your expensive NL starters. While Prior is a respectable investment, the inconsistency among these pitchers strongly suggests that you stand to gain much more from conservatively rostering a couple of solid #2 and #3 starters rather than pushing past $15 on highly hyped youngsters like Carlos Zambrano and Dontrelle Willis or increasingly injury-prone veterans like Oswalt and Morris.