Today's Fantasy Rx

On the Third Day of Outfielders, my true love gave to me:
American Leaguers without PDV,
Single-digit AL PDV,
and American Leaguers with Double-digit PDV.

American League Outfielders without Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2003.
2003 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2003.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 70/30 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2003 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2003 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

67.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Chris Latham		2	2	1.000	0	0	1	3	O
NY Yankees		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	0		0		0
2003 Age: 30	5x5:	0		0		0

After opening the year as the Yankees' fifth outfielder, Latham lost his roster spot before the end of April, and after he passed through waivers, he signed with the Yomiuri Giants in Japan. As he only managed a .221/.301/.443 in 131 at-bats, I suspect we'll see him back in AAA next season. He possesses good patience, decent overall plate discipline, and decent speed, but his lack of any outstanding tool severely limits his time in the majors. I can't imagine him finding enough playing time in the near future to merit roto consideration.

68.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Charles Gipson		10	2	.200	0	2	2	3	O
NY Yankees		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	0		0
2003 Age: 30	5x5:	-1		0

He barely contributed during a few weeks with the Yankees and then only managed a .275/.351/.342 in 120 AB for AAA Columbus(IL). While Gipson possesses sufficient speed and plate discipline to contribute in a limited role, no team apparently views him as more than a 25th man. His extremely erratic playing time keeps him from helping fantasy teams.

69.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mike Restovich		53	15	.283	0	4	0	10	O
MIN Twins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	0		0				R
2003 Age: 24	5x5:	0		0

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Minnesota for my comments on Restovich.

70.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Adrian Brown		15	3	.200	0	1	2	2	O
BOS Red Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	0		0		4
2003 Age: 29	5x5:	-1		0		4		R

While a .280/.350/.357 line with a 35/46 SB% and a 52:83 BB:K in 485 AB for AAA Pawtucket(IL) resulted in a September call-up with Boston, the speedster barely played and no longer seems likely to emerge as more than a reserve outfielder. Brown's speed still makes him an intriguing endgame option if he breaks camp in the majors, but make sure you can reserve him as necessary due to his inconsistent batting average.

71.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Andres Torres		168	37	.220	1	9	5	23	O
DET Tigers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	0		0		14		1
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	0		0		13		R

His poor performance in Detroit and a similarly weak .255/.301/.347 line in 271 AB for AAA Toledo(IL) further depletes his fantasy value, especially after the Tigers dropped Torres from their 40-man roster at season's end. Of course, Torres remains relatively young and managed a 27/38 SB% for Toledo, so he still owns excellent SB potential, but I can't recommend him anywhere until he secures a regular role in the majors.

72.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ramon Nivar		90	19	.211	0	7	4	9	O
TEX Rangers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	0		0
2003 Age: 23	5x5:	-1		0

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Texas for my comments on Nivar.

73.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jayson Werth		48	10	.208	2	10	1	7	O
TOR Blue Jays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	0		0		3		1
2003 Age: 24	5x5:	-1		0		3		R

Werth's poor season worries me after he only managed a .237/.285/.441 performance with a 15:68 BB:K in 236 AB for AAA Syracuse(IL), leaving his normally excellent plate patience as the key to Werth's development. Considering he should spend 2004 in the majors as Toronto's primary reserve outfielder and emergency catcher, his previous minor league success suggests he still could emerge as an intriguing offensive option. Definitely consider a late-round gamble here if looking for sleeper quantitative value.

74.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Barry Wesson		11	2	.182	1	3	1	2	O
ANA Angels		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	0		0
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	-1		0

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Anaheim for my comments on Wesson.

75.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Gary Johnson		8	3	.375	0	0	0	1	O
ANA Angels		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	-1		0
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	-1		-1

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Anaheim for my comments on Johnson.

76.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
George Lombard		37	8	.216	1	4	1	8	O
TB Devil Rays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	-1		0		4		5
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	-1		0		4		2

Although Lombard still possesses solid quantitative upside, a 45:143 BB:K effectively sabotaged his .267/.342/.459 performance in 438 AB for AAA Durham(IL). With few teams showing interest in the former prospect, he won't emerge as a viable fantasy option unless he improves his contact rate to the point where he can produce in a regular big league role over several weeks.

77.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Dee Brown		132	30	.227	2	14	1	16	O
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	-1		0		5		1
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	-1		0		6		4

Wrist problems limited his production this year, but after extended looks in the majors and a series of unremarkable offensive performances in the upper minors, Brown no longer looks like a future star or even a big league regular. Of course, he still owns some patience and power potential, so any contact improvement could result in an OPS surge, but I see no reason to invest in the future journeyman until he at least posts an OBP over .300 in the majors.

78.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Cody Ross		19	4	.211	1	5	0	1	O
DET Tigers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:L	4x4:	-1		0
2003 Age: 22	5x5:	-1		-1

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Detroit for my comments on Ross.

79.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Pedro Swann		14	3	.214	1	2	0	3	O
BAL Orioles		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	-1		0
2003 Age: 32	5x5:	-1		-1

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Baltimore for my comments on Swann.

80.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Rontrez Johnson		3	1	.333	0	0	0	3	O
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-1		0		1		R
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	-1		-1		1

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Atlanta for my comments on Johnson.

81.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
David DeJesus		7	2	.286	0	0	0	0	O
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	-1		0
2003 Age: 23	5x5:	-2		-1

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Kansas City for my comments on DeJesus.

82.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mike Edwards		4	1	.250	0	0	0	0	O
OAK Athletics		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-1		0
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	-2		-1

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Oakland for my comments on Edwards.

83.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Chad Meyers		1	0	.000	0	0	0	1	O
SEA Mariners		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-1		0
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	-2		-1

Meyers' performance for AAA Tacoma(IL) nicely illustrates his mildly intriguing upside. He compiled a .300/.361/.401 line with a 37/49 SB% and a 30:46 BB:K in 377 AB, and his past performance indicates the ability to cover almost any defensive position. Yes, he offers limited value to most clubs, but his combination of respectable plate discipline and speed skills will keep Meyers on the edge of fantasy screens indefinitely even though I won't recommend him until he wins a big league bench job.

84.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Julio Ramirez		2	0	.000	0	0	0	1	O
ANA Angels		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-1		-1
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	-2		-1

While Ramirez broke camp in the majors, he slipped to AAA Salt Lake(PCL) before the end of the April. He only managed a .279/.304/.425 performance with a poor 12:86 BB:K in one of the best hitting environments in affiliated baseball, so although he still might emerge as a useful bench player due to solid quantitative upside, don't risk rostering Ramirez until you see him hitting effectively over a few weeks in the majors.

85.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jamal Strong		2	0	.000	0	0	0	2	O/D
SEA Mariners		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-1		-1
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	-2		-1

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Seattle for my comments on Strong.

86.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
John Mabry		104	22	.212	3	16	0	12	O
SEA Mariners		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	-1		-1		0		R
2003 Age: 32	5x5:	-1		-1		0		R

Returning to Seattle simply didn't agree with Mabry, who returned to his normal mediocrity after his unlikely success with Oakland in 2002. However, he produced surprisingly strong numbers after returning from a shoulder sprain, compiling a .286/.429/.411 performance after the break. As long as he lands in a decent hitting environment and under a manager willing to limit Mabry's at-bats against left-handed pitching, the veteran journeyman at least owns the skills necessary to rebound towards a few bucks of positive value.

87.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Brandon Berger		32	7	.219	0	3	0	3	O
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-1		-1		-2
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	-2		-1		-2		1

Despite he upside suggested by another strong performance for AAA Omaha(PCL), highlighted by a .270/.367/.527 line in 226 AB, Berger appears unable to remain successful in the majors. He still could develop into a useful reserve, but don't roster him anywhere until you see him holding a BA that won't hurt your team in extended action off a big league bench.

88.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jermaine Clark		48	8	.167	0	7	2	2	O
TEX/SD		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	-1		-1		0		R
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	-2		-1		0		R

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Texas for my comments on Clark.

89.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jason Jones		107	23	.215	3	11	0	11	O
TEX Rangers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	-1		-1
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	-2		-1

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Texas for my comments on Jones.

90.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Matt Diaz		9	1	.111	0	0	0	2	O/D
TB Devil Rays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	-2		-1

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Tampa Bay for my comments on Diaz.

91.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Curtis Pride		12	1	.083	1	1	0	1	O
NY Yankees		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1
2003 Age: 34	5x5:	-2		-1

Pride remains a capable AAAA player, albeit not one likely to see much more time in the majors. His .289/.357/.467 performance in 225 AB for AAA Columbus(IL) doesn't suggest much upside as a big league reserve, so while Pride shouldn't hurt you as a roster filler, he also won't contribute anything significant to fantasy teams.

92.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Armando Rios		104	22	.212	2	11	0	4	O
CH White Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	-2		-1		3		R
2003 Age: 32	5x5:	-2		-1		2		R

Rios lost his 40-man spot twice this season, completing ceding the 2004 center field job to Aaron Rowand and Willie Harris by the end of the year. Yes, he posted another solid AAA performance for Charlotte(IL), compiling a .325/.392/.497 line in 151 AB, but his .245 OBP for Chicago suggests Rios no longer deserves a roster spot on either MLB or fantasy teams.

93.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Joe Borchard		49	9	.184	1	5	0	5	O
CH White Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1		6		6
2003 Age: 24	5x5:	-2		-1		6		6

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Chicago(A) for my comments on Borchard.

94.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Marcus Thames		73	15	.205	1	4	0	12	O
TEX Rangers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1		-2
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	-2		-1		-2

Thames managed a 3.92 #P/PA and .96 G-F after his mid-season move to Texas for Ruben Sierra. Unfortunately, faltering at AAA Oklahoma led the Rangers to release him to minor league free agency. While his skills still suggest intriguing long-term upside, repeated failures in the upper minors should keep you away from Thames until he begins producing in the majors, preferably as no less than a platoon starter.

95.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Gene Kingsale		120	25	.208	1	8	1	11	O
DET Tigers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1		5		7
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	-2		-1		5		9

Moving back to San Diego following an awful performance with Detroit may keep Kingsale in the majors next year, and he probably deserves another shot given he maintained fairly decent skills despite an awful .540 OPS this season. However, until you see him hold an acceptable BA for a few weeks, don't risk rostering him in any league.

96.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ron Gant		41	6	.146	1	4	0	4	O
OAK Athletics		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1		3		1
2003 Age: 38	5x5:	-3		-2		3		3

Retiring following his release from Oakland unfortunately obscures Gant's relative success in somewhat limited action over that last few years since playing one more season looks like a mistake in retrospect despite his desire for a ring. While Gant may have emerged as a dominant offensive force if not for injuries, he still enjoyed a sixteen-year big league career that resulted in two All-Star berths and significant MVP support in both those seasons during his decade-long stay in Atlanta.

97.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Hiram Bocachica		22	1	.045	0	0	0	1	O
DET Tigers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-3		-2		-1		R
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	-3		-2		-1		R

A promising ground-fly ratio still suggests some long-term upside for Bocachica, but his .242/.313/.432 performance in 322 AB for AAA Toledo(IL) shouldn't earn him much big league consideration in the spring. Declining effectiveness and a slow move down the defensive spectrum give Bocachica little value at the moment, so I see no reason to roster this likely BA sinkhole any time soon.

98.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Tim Raines, Jr.		43	6	.140	0	2	0	4	O
BAL Orioles		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-3		-2
2003 Age: 24	5x5:	-3		-2

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Baltimore for my comments on Raines, Jr.

99.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ryan Christenson		165	29	.176	2	16	2	22	O
TEX Rangers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-4		-3
2003 Age: 29	5x5:	-3		-2

Somehow Christensen managed a .313/.400/.477 performance in 195 AB for AAA Oklahoma(PCL), but he barely managed a .500 OPS in a couple stints with Texas, finishing the season with his third straight BA under the Mendoza Line. As I don't know why the Marlins signed him to a minor league deal in November, perhaps he'll receive a shot to break camp as a big league reserve. However, you simply cannot risk rostering Christensen until his averages in the majors improve to the point where his speed skills give him more fantasy potential than likely downside.

100.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jermaine Dye		221	38	.172	4	20	1	28	O
OAK Athletics		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-6		-4		20		20
2003 Age: 29	5x5:	-5		-3		20		22

Injuries destroyed Dye's season as torn cartilage in his right knee and then a separated right shoulder kept him from producing any respectable numbers. He failed to bat even .200 in any month, posting a miserable .146/.224/.211 performance against right-handed pitchers. However, a respectable .260/.377/.400 line versus southpaws and perhaps the best overall skill set of his career suggest Dye should rebound strongly next year prior to entering free agency. He at least appears capable of echoing his .252/24/86 season in 2002, so feel free to bid into the mid-teens for someone likely to be very undervalued.

The Twelve Days of Outfielders 2003 continue tomorrow.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Of the 15 rookies discussed above, David DeJesus stands out as the only one likely to regular playing time for most of the year. Ramon Nivar, Jamal Strong, Jason Jones, and Joe Borchard all might contribute, but 2004 doesn't look like a strong year for rookies outfielders, particularly when compared to a 2003 crop highlighted by Baldelli, Matsui, Gerut, and Reed Johnson. Look to two-year and three-year veterans, such as the youngsters in the Indians' and Rangers' outfields, to find AL outfielders likely to improve dramatically next season.