Today's Fantasy Rx

National League First Basemen with Double-digit Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2003.
2003 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2003.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 70/30 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2003 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2003 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

1.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Albert Pujols		591	212	.359	43	124	5	137	1/O
STL Cardinals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	46		32		37		36
2003 Age: 23	5x5:	45		31		36		35

Pujols excelled throughout the year, and while Bonds' dominance over most pitchers rightly kept Pujols away from the MVP award, these numbers still are quite impressive. Most of this growth stems from a 45-point jump in his batting average from 2002, an increase rooted in developing plate discipline, as indicated by career-best marks of a .13 walk rate and a .89 contact rate. However, he also didn't experience dramatic gains in either stat, his plate patience continues to drop, and a slight improvement from a 1.27 G-F in 2002 to 1.18 doesn't indicate a pending power increase of any significant magnitude. Now, if Tony LaRussa finds a way to increase the number of baserunners ahead of Pujols, perhaps by moving Renteria to leadoff, we could see an abrupt jump in Pujols' RBI totals from 125 to 150 or more. Unfortunately, LaRussa kept the Cardinals out of the playoffs the last couple years by placing out machines like Fernando Vina and Bo Hart atop the order, so Pujols likely won't reach $50 for another few seasons. As nothing here indicates an approaching breakout of historic proportions, hold your bidding under $40 and you certainly won't be disappointed with Pujols' performance.

2.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Todd Helton		583	209	.358	33	117	0	135	1
COL Rockies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	40		28		26		35
2003 Age: 30	5x5:	40		28		25		33

Seemingly recovered from his back problems, Helton boosted both his homers and RBI totals while demonstrating significant signs of an approaching power surge. He boosted his contact rate to a .88 mark this year and managed career-bests of a .19 walk rate and .92 G-F. Only questionable OBP sources atop the Rockies' order will keep him from heading back towards 150 RBI. Helton should remain near $40 as long as he avoids further injury.

3.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Derrek Lee		539	146	.271	31	92	21	91	1
FLO Marlins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	26		18		23		26
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	26		18		23		27

Jumping from a .83 G-F to a 1.12 mark slightly concerns me, but Lee remains a patient hitter who makes relatively good contact. Although leaving Florida for the Cubs likely limits his steals, a .290/40/110 season seems very plausible given the difference between the two home parks. Of course, any SB reduction will keep him under $30, so only roster Lee if you see him available around $25.

4.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jeff Bagwell		605	168	.278	39	100	11	109	1
HOU Astros		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	26		18		26		30
2003 Age: 35	5x5:	26		18		27		26

At least the overall degradation of his skill set didn't keep Bagwell from enjoying another fairly productive season, but a disastrous May and mediocre June left his final stats short of expectations. Increasing problems with right-handers, diminished plate discipline and patience, and a rising ground-fly rate all leave him vulnerable to more severe problems as he ages. While he still ranks among the most reliable players to own in fantasy baseball, bidding above $25 for Bagwell appears more risky every year.

5.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Richie Sexson		606	165	.272	45	124	2	97	1
MIL Brewers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	23		16		19		24
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	23		16		20		24

Sexson seems likely to enjoy a fruitful career in the desert after Arizona traded nearly an entire starting infield to acquire a right-handed cleanup hitter. While he lacks outstanding offensive skills and won't approach a .300 average even with the benefits of the BOB, his plate discipline and power potential make him an excellent for the Diamondbacks even if they overpaid considering his approaching free agency. Of course, that free agent push should prompt Sexson towards his best season yet, making him an excellent and durable quantitative source in any fantasy league.

6.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jim Thome		578	154	.266	47	131	0	111	1
PHI Phillies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	21		15		21		31
2003 Age: 33	5x5:	23		16		21		31

Contending for the non-Barry Bonds MVP vote in his first season in the National League helped Thome to justify Philadelphia's impressive investment in his talents. Although he struggles somewhat significantly against southpaws, his solid skill set will enable Thome to remain a premiere power hitter for several more years, especially with the Phillies moving into a hitter-friendly home park next year. He even could surpass his 2003 totals since he fairly exploded after only managing a .227/.347/.423 during his first month in the league, so I see no reason not to push $30 to secure perhaps the most consistent production of quantitative stats among NL sluggers.

7.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Sean Casey		573	167	.291	14	80	4	71	1
CIN Reds		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	17		12		18		15
2003 Age: 29	5x5:	17		12		18		17

Additional patience and generally good health keyed Casey's rebound this year. Although he doesn't appear headed towards another .330/25/100 season, improving plate discipline provides a good foundation for further development if he ever starts hitting more flyballs. Of course, nothing in these stats suggests the possibility of a power surge in the near future, so stop bidding below $20 to stand a good chance to earning a profit on Casey.

8.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Brad Wilkerson		504	135	.268	19	77	13	78	1/O
MON Expos		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	17		12		12		16
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	17		12		14		16

Wilkerson unsurprisingly excelled as the Expos' leadoff hitter late in the year, compiling a .299/.424/.496 performance in 117 at-bats. Thanks to a 4.37 #P/PA, he appears perfectly suited to hitting at the top of the order, particularly a potentially dynamic lineup that includes Jose Vidro, Nick Johnson, Carl Everett, and Orlando Cabrera hitting after Wilkerson. Also, considering he turns 27 in the middle of next season and continues improving his walk and contact rate, Wilkerson easily could post a breakout year. Gambling more than $20 is a little risky, but if Montreal winds up slotting all their games in Puerto Rico in the first half, feel free to push the bidding to $25, especially in leagues that use runs or OBP. Wilkerson could reach $30 of value by the time you trade him at the All-Star break, although he still should finish the year close to $20.

9.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Matt Stairs		305	89	.292	20	57	0	49	1/O
PIT Pirates		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	11		8		3		2
2003 Age: 35	5x5:	11		8		3		2

Continuing to crush right-handed pitching will keep Stairs employed indefinitely. Moving to Kansas City should insure he receives another couple hundred at-bats, and if not for complications caused by a torn ligament in his right index finger, he might have finished above a .300/25/70 performance. With good patience and a career-best .74 G-F, expect him to provide another respectable double-digit value while costing under $10

10.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Wil Cordero		436	121	.278	16	71	1	57	1
MON Expos		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	11		8		5		1
2003 Age: 31	5x5:	11		8		5		3

Miscast as the Expos' starting first baseman, Cordero needs a platoon job or pinch-hitting role to take advantage of his .324/.421/.528 performance against left-handed pitchers. He still possesses good patience and power potential, so although counting on him as more than roster filler or a part-time UT looks like a mistake given his limited upside, Cordero still seems a good bet to earn a few bucks of value next year.

11.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Tino Martinez		476	130	.273	15	69	1	66	1
STL Cardinals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	10		7		12		17
2003 Age: 35	5x5:	11		8		13		16

Moving to Tampa Bay won't alleviate Tino's power outages, especially with his plate patience dropping for the fifth straight season. His increasing lack of discipline, coupled with sharply reduced RBI opportunities due to not hitting behind Pujols, Edmonds, and Rolen, suggests he might not reach double-digit value again. Although I still consider Martinez a viable corner option, viewing him as more than a fallback COR option could hurt your team, especially if the Rays don't provide him the platoon partner he desperately needs.

12.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Randall Simon		410	113	.276	16	72	0	47	1
PIT/CHC		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	10		7		11		10
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	10		7		11		11

His split-second decision to bonk the Italian Sausage on the head during a July Sausage Race in Miller Park likely gave him more publicity than he'll otherwise enjoy in his career. Of course, Simon strongly rebounded in the second half, joining Chicago and fellow ex-Pirates Kenny Lofton and Aramis Ramirez to key the Cubs' playoff push, yet I also don't know if he'll find a starting job this winter. Few teams want a first baseman with a sub-.750 OPS, so while he might remain a productive player in limited at-bats, Simon likely won't merit more than an endgame bid unless he unexpectedly finds regular playing time somewhere.

13.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Carlos Baerga		207	71	.343	4	39	1	31	1
ARI Diamondbacks		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	10		7		1
2003 Age: 34	5x5:	9		6		1

The odds of Baerga even echoing this performance appear rather remote, however he at least demonstrated good plate discipline and wisely re-signed with Arizona. Of course, his questionable patience and limited power potential make him no more than roster filler on any decent team, especially since he only qualifies at first base and the Diamondbacks acquired Richie Sexson. Expect another few bucks of value from Baerga as his career continues to wind down.

14.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Andres Galarraga		272	82	.301	12	42	1	36	1
SF Giants		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	10		7		-1		R
2003 Age: 42	5x5:	9		6		-1		R

Galarraga posted his best averages since 2000, remaining surprisingly productive as J.T. Snow's platoon partner. He registered a rather dynamic .309/.369/.574 performance against southpaws, essentially guaranteeing him regular employment next year even though he turns 43 next June. While his diminishing plate discipline concerns me, I also see little reason not to use Galarraga as roster filler if you need a COR sub and you see him available.

'03 First Basemen Week continues tomorrow, featuring National Leaguers with Single-digit PDV.

Today's Fantasy Rx: With only platoon starters and reserves departing the league among today's players, first base should remain a primary source of value for NL owners. Even if you don't draft Pujols or Helton, the quartet of Lee, Bagwell, Sexson, and Thome presents several worthy options for owners looking for a power anchor. Lee in particular could see his quantitative numbers rise dramatically just by departing Florida for Wrigley, however find steals elsewhere as I don't envision him running too often thanks to his place in the middle of the Cubs' order.