Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Third Basemen with Double-digit Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2003.
2003 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2003.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 70/30 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2003 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2003 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

1.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Scott Rolen		559	160	.286	28	104	13	98	3
STL Cardinals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	26		18		28		31
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	26		18		27		25

Aside from a mild slump towards the end of the season, Rolen posted perhaps the best all-around season of his career. His average rebounded as expected while he compiled his best walk rate since 1999 and displayed solid plate patience. Registering a career-high .79 BB:K, an impressive improvement from his previous best mark of .71, also suggests fundamental skill development that will result in better quantitative marks in future seasons. Of course, Rolen's 49 doubles, only two behind Albert Pujols, baseball's doubles champ in 2003, indicate a pending power surge when considering his other stats. Enough positive trends exist here to warrant a bid over $30, yet even if Rolen merely repeats these numbers, his consistency and stability as a core Cardinal makes him reasonably valuable as long as you don't approach $40.

2.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Aaron Boone		592	158	.267	24	96	23	92	3
CIN/NYY		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	25		18		29		27
2003 Age: 30	5x5:	25		17		27		26

His homer in the ALCS makes him Aaron Bleeping Boone everywhere in New England, especially now that he avoided arbitration and will return to third base for the Yankees. Boone compensated for mild walk rate erosion by improving his contact rate, which bumped his batting average near his .270 career norm. Although his steals dropped by nearly a third, few infielders post consecutive 20-20 seasons, and I see no reason why he can't maintain that performance in New York. We even should see a welcome bump in his RBI and Runs totals, making Boone a good target anywhere under $30.

3.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mike Lowell		492	136	.276	32	105	3	76	3
FLO Marlins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	19		13		12		19
2003 Age: 29	5x5:	19		13		13		22

Even if the Marlins don't secure a new stadium, I expect Lowell at least will remain in Florida for a couple of years due to approaching glut of free agent third basemen. The biggest problem he faces this year is that the numbers of Pierre and Castillo should slip slightly, and Miguel Cabrera and Jeff Conine, likely to hit around Lowell, aren't comparable to IRod and Derrek Lee. Fortunately, given Lowell's developing patience and steady power skills, he should be able to echo this performance in a first season, if not even improve his homer total. Bidding towards $25 is a good idea if you can't roster Rolen.

4.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Morgan Ensberg		385	112	.291	25	60	7	69	3
HOU Astros		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	18		13		8		2
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	17		12		8		1

Ensberg finally fulfilled his promise by emerging as the fourth most valuable third baseman in the league even while splitting time with Geoff Blum. A 3.70 #P/PA, .93 G-F, and .84 contact rate all indicate excellent potential for him to reach a .300/30/100 season within the next few years. Although some slight regression in 2004 seems inevitable if he plays full-time, especially after he only managed a .269/.330/.441 after the break, I see no reason not to head over $20 given Ensberg's solid skill set.

5.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Aramis Ramirez		607	165	.272	27	106	2	75	3
PIT/CHC		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	17		12		20		20
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	17		12		19		21

Across-the-board positive skill trends highlighted by consistent improvement over the past four seasons in his ground-fly rate gives Ramirez very intriguing upside. He managed lofty quantitative numbers despite spending most of the season in Pittsburgh, and now he'll spend a full year batting behind Sosa, Alou, and Derrek Lee. Ramirez appears primed for a truly impressive campaign, making him a good bargain anywhere much under $30. The Cubs will regret not giving him an extension along the lines of $21M/3 if they foolishly allow him to enter 2004 with only a year of arbitration-eligibility left before free agency.

6.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Vinny Castilla		542	150	.277	22	76	1	65	3
ATL Braves		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	14		10		3		1
2003 Age: 36	5x5:	14		10		4		4

Rejoining the Rockies gives Castilla an excellent opportunity to recapture his glory years. Unfortunately, he remains a very impatient hitter in the twilight of his career. Declining from a 1.05 G-F to a 1.57 mark while also dropping from a .87 contact rate to a .84 mark suggests we might not see a significant quantitative jump. However, he also averaged a .302/39/112 annual performance during his five previous years starting in Colorado, and his overall skills remain fairly similar, so I expect him at least to approach a .280/33/95 line. Consider Castilla a strong sleeper even if he looks like mid-season trade bait.

7.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Sean Burroughs		517	148	.286	7	58	7	62	3
SD Padres		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	14		10		9		9
2003 Age: 23	5x5:	14		10		8		13

Burroughs only will enter his second full big league season in 2004, and given his developing skills and youth, he looks like a future star. He didn't post a platoon split this year of any consequence, moderately improved his walk and contact rates, and displayed better overall patience. Most important for roto owners hoping for power development, Burroughs dropped his ground-fly ratio from 2.09 to 1.68 G-F, and if he avoids another second half slump, he should push $20 while emerging as an excellent leadoff man.

8.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ty Wigginton		573	146	.255	11	71	12	73	3
NY Mets		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	11		8		5		5
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	12		9		6		6

Although Wigginton's numbers suggest a decent rookie season, neither his .318 OBP nor a .396 SLG suggest he should hold his starting job any longer than the year or two David Wright should need to reach the majors for good. The only particularly promising news is that he hit lefties quite well, but if Wigginton's steals drop and he fails to improve on his decent 3.72 #P/PA or 1.30 G-F, his value could drop to $5. Only his relative youth indicates Wigginton should experience much improvement over the next few years, so while he isn't a terrible target if you can roster for him in the $6-8 range, don't pay much more since his skills don't suggest significant upside.

9.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Edgardo Alfonzo		514	133	.259	13	81	5	56	3
SF Giants		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	10		7		21		22
2003 Age: 29	5x5:	10		7		21		23

I expected Alfonzo to experience some difficulties in PacBell, but his across-the-board sliding splits suggest a deeper problem. However, he also managed a .296/.372/.474 performance in the second half, and only dropping from a 3.88 #P/PA to a 3.48 mark truly worries me among his skills. A career-best .92 contact rate even suggest an excellent possibility for another .300 average in 2004, so I see little reason to treat his first-half slump as anything more than adjusting to San Francisco after spending his entire eight-year career with the Mets.

'03 Third Basemen Week continues tomorrow, featuring National Leaguers with Single-digit PDV.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Losing Albert Pujols to the outfield and/or first base, as well as Aaron Boone to the AL, eliminates some of the elite depth here, however Rolen, Lowell, Ensberg, Aramis Ramirez, and Burroughs all are either entering or in their primes. While Wigginton and Alfonzo also aren't terrible options, and Castilla looks intriguing in his return to Coors, spending $20+ on one of the first four listed above, or even bidding around $20 on Burroughs, appears the best plan due to sharp drop-off in roto value following the top half-dozen NL third basemen.