Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Second Basemen with Single-digit Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2003.
2003 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2003.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 70/30 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2003 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2003 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

11.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jolbert Cabrera		347	98	.282	6	37	6	43	2/O
LA Dodgers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	9		6		-3
2003 Age: 30	5x5:	9		6		-4

Aside from the fielding flexibility Cabrera brings to a team with his ability to handle any position save catcher, he won't hurt a team as the right-handed half of a platoon. Unfortunately, despite his relative usefulness for Los Angeles, Cabrera can't help many fantasy teams as he lacks much power or speed. His 32 doubles indicate some power upside, but I simply don't envision him exceeding his 2003 value in the foreseeable future. With his contact rate down to .82, his batting average also should slide next year, making him a questionable selection before Dollar Days.

12.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Roberto Alomar		516	133	.258	5	39	12	76	2
NYM/CHW		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	8		6		23		26
2003 Age: 35	5x5:	10		7		23		21

While he turns 36 in February, the future Hall of Famer still owns respectable all-around skills, including impressive patience and good speed. Unfortunately, his continued struggles against lefties means he requires a platoon partner, so expect his at-bats to drop below 500 regardless of where he signs. I still view Alomar as a fantasy asset to most teams and he should be a bargain under $10, however his limited upside means you only should view him as a fallback option if your targeted second basemen quickly leave the draft board.

13.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Junior Spivey		365	93	.255	13	50	4	52	2
ARI Diamondbacks		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	6		5		16		18
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	7		5		18		14

Moving to Milwaukee theoretically guarantees Spivey regular playing time, however I see little chance of him remaining with the Brewers through the start of next season. He at least should head elsewhere by the trade deadline to make room for Milwaukee's cadre of young infield prospects. Of course, Spivey still owns good power potential, so if he reverses his contact rate drop from a .81 to a .74, he should echo his 2002 stats fairly strongly. Only another torn ankle ligament or similar injury appears likely to prevent him from posting a solid double-digit fantasy value, especially if he finishes 2004 on a playoff team.

14.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Keith Ginter		358	92	.257	14	44	1	51	2/3
MIL Brewers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	5		4		1		R
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	6		4		1		1

Milwaukee likely will send Junior Spivey elsewhere in the near future, opening second base for Ginter until Rickie Weeks reaches the majors to stay. He probably should approach 400 at-bats, and given Ginter's 4.23 #P/PA and .93 G-F, he should cruise to double-digit value time if his playing time increases. If Spivey remains with the Brewers through your draft, definitely target Ginter since he should turn a nice profit on a gamble of a couple dollars, however he looks like a good option under almost any circumstances thanks to the intriguing upside suggested by his strong skills.

15.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Bo Hart		296	82	.277	4	28	3	46	2
STL Cardinals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	5		4
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	5		4

Hart's respectable .297/.331/.444 performance over 266 AB at AAA Memphis(PCL) made him the only logical replacement after both Fernando Vina and Miguel Cairo suffered serious injuries. His aggressive play made him a favorite of both St. Louis fans and management, however his unimpressive skills led to an extended slump down the stretch. Even if the Cardinals don't add a couple of veteran alternative as expected, I simply don't see Hart finding more than a backup job on next year's team, making him worth no more than a Dollar Days' flyer.

16.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Geoff Blum		420	110	.262	10	52	0	51	2/3
HOU Astros		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	5		4		1		3
2003 Age: 30	5x5:	6		4		2		7

While Morgan Ensberg eventually forced Blum to the bench, he appears likely to remain a semi-regular in Houston's infield despite his weak skills. He absolutely should never face left-handers again after registering a .135/.200/.162 against southpaws this year, so hopefully the Astros will convince him to stop switch-hitting. With his patience and power potential now decreasing in each of the past three seasons, Blum possesses no more than negligible upside, so I see absolutely no reason to consider him anything more than roster filler..

17.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Matt Kata		288	74	.257	7	29	3	42	2/3
ARI Diamondbacks		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	3		3
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	4		3

Injuries forced Kata to the majors ahead of schedule, although his .289/.327/.448 performance in 201 AB for AAA Tucson(PCL) suggested some potential for respectable numbers this year. Kata instead effectively displaced Spivey due to his surprising power and respectable overall numbers. Of course, weak plate discipline leaves him with an unimpressive average, and I also see little SB upside here, suggesting you shouldn't bid more than a few bucks on him in the hope that he enjoys a .270/10/60 season.

18.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Henry Mateo		154	37	.240	0	7	11	29	2
MON Expos		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	3		2		-1
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	3		2		-1

Mateo finally earned his first full season in the majors. His excellent speeds skills should keep him employed as a reserve indefinitely, especially since he also demonstrated decent patience and useful position flexibility. Strongly consider Mateo if you want an inexpensive MIF likely to steal a dozen bases.

19.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Tomas Perez		298	79	.265	5	33	0	39	2/3
PHI Phillies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	2		2		0
2003 Age: 29	5x5:	3		2		0

The Phillies' primary infield backup received a career-high at-bat total while unsurprisingly contributing his worst offensive performance in three years. Perez owns no notable skills and shouldn't merit fantasy consideration as anything more than short-term roster filler.

20.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Miguel Cairo		261	64	.245	5	32	4	41	2/O
STL Cardinals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	2		2		-1
2003 Age: 29	5x5:	3		2		0

A broken finger cost Cairo most of June and July, forcing him to miss his best shot chance to secure a starting job in three years. He instead virtually replicated his unimpressive 2002 performance. The one bright spot is that a career-best .98 G-F and .89 contact rate suggest mildly intriguing BA and power upside, so consider grabbing Cairo during Dollar Days depending on where he lands, especially if he enters the season as a backup to a fragile starter.

21.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Fernando Vina		259	65	.251	4	23	4	35	2
STL Cardinals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	2		2		16		11
2003 Age: 34	5x5:	2		2		17		10

Vina missed the majority of the season after tearing his hamstring in May. Unfortunately, he played rather poorly prior to the injury, displaying little speed or power. Given his limited upside, Vina shouldn't merit this much attention in free agency, and I expect the team that eventually lands him will end up quite disappointed with his performance. Bidding more than a couple of bucks on the former speedster looks like a mistake.

22.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Alex Cora		477	119	.249	4	34	4	39	2
LA Dodgers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	2		1		2		1
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	2		2		2		1

Improvement in Cora's contact and ground-fly rates indicates the potential for at least a strong rebound towards his 2002 stats if not an outright breakout season. While his poor walk rate concerns me, he still merits a small investment in deep leagues, especially if he heads into 2004 as the unquestioned starter again. Bidding up to $5 shouldn't hurt you if need an inexpensive second baseman after splurging elsewhere.

'03 Second Basemen Week continues tomorrow, featuring National Leaguers without PDV.

Today's Fantasy Rx: The Richie Sexson trade obviously raises the value of both Junior Spivey and Matt Kata by giving each player a seemingly secure starting job, however if Spivey moves elsewhere quickly, Keith Ginter also could regain his pre-trade value. While Spivey and Ginter look like the best candidates from today's second basemen to experience a jump to double-digit value, Fernando Vina, simply by remaining healthy, should accumulate several more dollars of value despite questionable skills even if he leaves St. Louis as expected.