Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Catchers with Draft Value from $4 through $0

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2003.
2003 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2003.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 70/30 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2003 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2003 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

12.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Charles Johnson		356	82	.230	20	61	1	49	C
COL Rockies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	4		3		6		14
2003 Age: 32	5x5:	4		3		6		13

Twenty homers and a .455 SLG helped obscure a relatively awful offensive season, especially considering he played 81 games in Colorado. The Rockies also owe Johnson $18M over the next two seasons, and as Colorado isn't rushing J.D. Closser to the majors, expect Johnson to return to Coors in 2004. Perhaps the best news here is that his 3.90 #P/PA, .14 walk rate, and .85 G-F both rank among his career-best marks, yet a .153/.242/.318 performance in road games largely negates the positives here. I see no reason to trust Johnson on your team at anything above $5 unless you can roster an extra catcher and switch everytime Colorado heads on the road. Johnson's .306/12/43 in 180 games in Coors would push his value close to $10, but in leagues with transaction limitations that prohibit you from easily reserving him, Johnson isn't someone to target.

13.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Chad Moeller		239	64	.268	7	29	1	29	C
ARI Diamondbacks		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	3		3		3		2
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	3		3		2		1

Moeller is a perfectly serviceable catcher, however he possesses little overall upside and already looks headed out of Arizona thanks to the emergence of Robby Hammock. Even though he posted a career-best 3.80 #P/PA this year, his G-F jumped from 1.21 to 1.72, his contact rate dropped from .78 to .75, and even his walk rate fell from .16 to .10. While Moeller looked like an All-Star in the first half, when he compiled a .309/.368/.489, his .118/.211/.235 after the break probably means a change of teams. Of course, with his basic skills remain relatively good for a catcher, he won't hurt you for a couple bucks, and a profit of several dollars isn't unforeseeable.

14.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mike Matheny		441	111	.252	8	47	1	43	C
STL Cardinals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	3		2		-1
2003 Age: 33	5x5:	3		3		0

The Gold Glove winner shocked the fantasy world by compiling a .315/.347/.413 performance with 13 RBI in April. Smart fantasy owners than cut Matheny before he spent the next four months negating that batting average. Of course, he then rallied in September to register a .328/.381/.534 line, so his inconsistent excellent this year ranks with the most unlikely splits of the year. Yet April and September were his best months in 2002 as well, making him an intriguing option as a reserve in leagues with deep reserve rosters. As general growth in most of his skills also suggests some sustainable quantitative improvement, Matheny no longer is an unacceptable choice to fill the second catcher slot on teams with a solid BA base.

15.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jason LaRue		379	87	.230	16	50	3	52	C
CIN Reds		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	3		2		2		4
2003 Age: 29	5x5:	4		3		3		7

Despite a career-best .743 OPS and .93 G-F, LaRue continues to post a reverse platoon split and struggle on the road. He also fails to post an acceptable OBP regardless of the situation, leaving him with little value to anyone save power-desperate owners. Corky Miller's development should push LaRue out of town within the next year, so even if you possess enough BA elsewhere on your team roster LaRue for a buck or two, don't count on him past 2004.

16.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
David Ross		124	32	.258	10	18	0	19	C
LA Dodgers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	2		2		-3
2003 Age: 26	5x5:	1		1		-4

Even though he only managed a .221/.313/.442 and an 11:27 BB:K in 86 at-bats at AAA Las Vegas(PCL) this year, Ross secured a job with the Dodgers by largely crushing the ball once given semi-regular playing time. While his .66 contact rate is a problem, a .10 walk rate, 3.74 #P/PA, and .76 G-F give him as much value as almost any backup in the league. The only problem is that he struggled when Los Angeles starting him throughout much of July, so he may not be ready to start every day. Yet given his posted an OPS over .880 against both lefties and right-handers, some team will give him a starting job in the near future. Spending a couple bucks on Ross next spring is a move with little downside and significant long-term upside.

17.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Yorvit Torrealba		200	52	.260	4	29	1	22	C
SF Giants		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	2		1		-2		1
2003 Age: 25	5x5:	1		1		-2		1

Torrealba looked like the Giants' new starter for about a month, and then San Francisco's acquisition of A.J. Pierzynski puts Torrealba back on the bench, if not out of the organization in another deal. With his .725+ road OPS in each of the last two years, Torrealba should be able to start for about half the teams in baseball, and although his current skills don't suggest significant upside, he remains quite young. Among the backups likely available during Dollar Days, he appears more likely to make a positive contribution than most of his competition.

18.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Vance Wilson		268	65	.243	8	39	1	28	C
NY Mets		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	1		1		-1
2003 Age: 30	5x5:	2		1		-1

While Wilson's skills seem fairly decent, he simply hasn't produced for the Mets, and he isn't likely to develop much further given his age. Perhaps if his contact rate rose above .79 he could take advantage of a 3.93 #P/PA and 1.19 G-F, but even though New York handed him the starting job when Piazza hit the DL, he failed to prove he deserved any roster spot at all. I still see enough upside in his skills for Wilson to remain in the majors, but he doesn't belong in an organization with Piazza and Jason Phillips in the majors and Mike Jacobs and Justin Huber in the minors, so don't even bid a buck here unless he winds up in a park friendly to hitters by spring training.

19.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Todd Pratt		125	34	.272	4	20	0	16	C
PHI Phillies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	1		1		-1		1
2003 Age: 36	5x5:	1		1		-1		3

An increase from .91 to 1.41 in Pratt's G-F limits his power potential, however with a 4.17 #P/PA and .18 walk rate, he easily ranks among the baseball's best backup backstops. One of the primary reasons Philadelphia lost the Wild Card is that Pratt, despite a .272/.400/.464 performance, only pinch-hit five times. Larry Bowa's decision to keep perhaps his best weapon on the bench in all but 43 games also damaged Pratt's fantasy value since Lieberthal remained healthy all year. The good news is that Pratt could approach double-digit value with additional at-bats, and if you need a Dollar Days' catcher, Pratt looks like the safest pick available.

20.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ramon Castro		53	15	.283	5	8	0	6	C
FLO Marlins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	0		1		-2
2003 Age: 27	5x5:	0		0		-3		1

The outcome of Castro's pending rape trial obviously will determine his future in the game, but if he's not guilty, Castro could emerge as one of the game's best catchers if IRod departs Florida. While he remains decently patient at the plate, his fantastic .38 G-F gives him as much pure power potential as any slugger in the game. Only a lack of playing time or weak contact rate can keep Castro from thirty homers, and as he's alternately crushed lefties and right-handers over the past two years, a starting job might result in an All-Star berth. If Castro is cleared of all charges and finally begins a season as the undisputed starter, bidding into double-digits appears justifiable to secure his services.

21.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Gary Bennett		307	73	.238	2	42	3	26	C
SD Padres		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	0		0		-3
2003 Age: 31	5x5:	0		1		-3

Bennett may remain in the majors as a reserve indefinitely, however other than mildly acceptable plate patience, he owns no offensive skills of note. He isn't someone to roster on fantasy teams considering he barely earned positive value in Colorado and therefore remains unlikely to turn a profit on any bid.

22.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Kit Pellow		18	8	.444	1	4	0	6	C
COL Rockies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	0		0
2003 Age: 30	5x5:	-1		0

Please refer to our Post-2003 Prospect Review: Colorado for my comments on Pellow.

23.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Miguel Ojeda		141	33	.234	4	22	1	13	C
SD Padres		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	0		0
2003 Age: 28	5x5:	-1		0

After several years in the Mexican League, Ojeda impressively debuted in the majors this year with San Diego. While he didn't excel, he displayed enough talent to enter spring training as the favorite to back-up the new Padres' starter. His .13 walk rate, .82 contact rate, 4.01 #P/PA, and 1.19 G-F all indicate promising long-term upside, so feel free to select Ojeda if you're looking for a relative unknown with decent roto potential in Dollar Days.

24.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Damian Miller		352	82	.233	9	36	1	34	C
CH Cubs		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	0		0		1		5
2003 Age: 33	5x5:	0		0		2		7

Instead of solidifying the catching position for Chicago, Miller struggled throughout much of the year, eventually compiling his worst numbers as a regular. His power didn't rebound from his 2002 slump, and while he remains relatively patient at the plate, he didn't make enough contact to post an acceptable batting average. While he likely will improve next season, Miller possesses relatively little upside, could lose his starting job at any point, and offers relatively little profit potential since his former years of double-digit homers continue to attract more bids than his current stats merit.

'03 Catcher Week continues tomorrow, featuring National Leaguers with DV under $0.

Today's Fantasy Rx: The majority of catchers worth only a couple bucks of 2003 value look unlikely to post a better performance next year. Rather than settling for anyone today other than perhaps Todd Pratt, target either more expensive players or those catchers who struggled this year but should bounce back in 2004.