Today's Fantasy Rx

I analyzed our performance in the inaugural 2003 NL BP-Indy draft near the beginning of the season. Today I'm going to examine both our draft and in-season moves now that the year is over.

For those of you unfamiliar with Scoresheet, you draft teams of no less than 30 players, and each week you submit a lineup with your batting orders against both right-handed and left-handed starters, as well as your preferred pitching rotation, order to deploy relievers, and several other detailed strategy instructions. Among the instructions for your team are when to bunt, how to use pinch hitters, what defensive replacements to use, and more importantly, how you want the computer to run your pitching staff.

After each week of games, the Scoresheet computer takes your lineup and simulates a half-dozen games against other teams in your league based on the performances of the players on your teams over that past week. While I've played baseball simulations on the computer for most of the last two decades, we were looking forward to trying a game that combines some of the best aspects of traditional sim play with fantasy baseball.

BP-Indy adopted a few modified rules at the draft. First, instead of the standard scoresheet rule allowing each team in keeper leaguers to retain two players that begin the new season in the opposite league, we voted to allow only one such crossover player. Second, instead of the two extended in-season supplemental drafts normally conducted, we decided to hold a monthly supplemental draft in which each team would receive three players. We conducted the April draft by e-mail, but then held the next four live via chat. Lastly, with regards to keeper lists, we set no minimum number of keepers, held the standard maximum number of 13 non-rookie keepers, allowed the trading of keeper slots, and let owners keep an unlimited number of rookie keepers to be slotted at the bottom of the draft. For example, if we keep two rookies going into 2004, we will lose our 29th and 30th round picks at the draft.

When reviewing the draft two weeks into the season, I wrote that "we expect we'll remain competitive as long as our bullpen protects our starters and we avoid multiple major injuries." Happily, thanks to an offense that tied for the league lead in runs, we won our division by six games, finishing with an 89-73 record, the second best mark in the league. We beat the #3 seed in the playoffs 4-2, but we unfortunately lost to the best team in the league in the final, four games to one. While we enjoyed watching Kerry Wood and Mark Prior lead our Cubs to the edge of the Series, our opponent owned both pitchers, and they won 3 games in the final series. Somewhat ironically, Carlos Zambrano earned the win in the only game we won in that last playoff series.

We're quite pleased with our performance this season. Playing against a league of scoresheet veterans, we enjoyed a mostly successful draft and then parlayed the roster depth we gained with our supplemental picks into a respectable playoff roster.

Looking back at the draft, we certainly accomplished our goal of drafting a solid offense. Our drafted players are listed below in order of their selection with their VORP(Value Over Replacement Player).

Round	VORP	Player
1	97.3	Albert Pujols
2	45.8	Jose Vidro
3	63.3	Edgar Renteria
4	78.9	Gary Sheffield
5	19.8	Ryan Klesko
6	31.2	Cliff Floyd
7	6.1	Kurt Ainsworth
8	19.8	Jake Peavy
9	-4.7	Eli Marrero
10	44.3	Carlos Zambrano
11	23.9	Corey Patterson
12	15.8	Adam Eaton
13	N/A	Orlando Hernandez
14	-6.7	Juan Cruz
15	-2.5	Michael Barrett
16	32.1	Jeff Suppan
17	6.6	Darren Dreifort
18	-3.4	Chris Stynes
19	-13.5	Clay Condrey
20	38.2	Miguel Batista
21	11.1	Tim Worrell
22	3.7	Brandon Villafuerte
23	3.7	Jason Lane
24	-7.2	Jose Mesa
25	12.5	Mark Guthrie
26	34.1	Morgan Ensberg
27	1.4	Neifi Perez
28	10.6	Ricky Ledee
29	-4.9	Brian L. Hunter
30	-5.6	Troy O'Leary
31	-6.0	Orlando Merced
32	10.7	Scott Eyre
33	3.5	Trevor Hoffman
34	N/A	Seung Song
35	-4.0	Jason Middlebrook

Selecting Pujols with the third overall pick of the draft gave us the second best player in the majors this year as wells as a fantastic building block for the future. While passing repeatedly on third basemen like Mike Lowell and Aramis Ramirez looks bad now, Renteria worked great for us at short, and when paired with Vidro, he gives us one of the league's best middle infields.

Of course, grabbing Gary Sheffield, the fourth best hitter in the majors, is the primary reason we won our division. Although Klesko, Floyd, Marrero, Patterson, and Barrett all failed to match our expectations due to injury, Sheffield and our late round pick of Ensberg compensated for many other problems in our lineup. Employing Stynes and Ledee in platoon roles also added somewhat unexpected punch to our offense.

We obviously blew several late picks, particularly drafting Hunter, O'Leary, and Merced instead of players like Matt Stairs, Guillermo Mota, and John Vander Wal. However, as defense plays an important role in scoresheet, Perez, Hunter, Stynes, and Ledee helped in the late innings.

Other than the early no-brainer picks, Patterson, and Ensberg, we didn't draft particularly well on offense. While our top two pitchers also didn't perform as expected, Zambrano, Eaton, and Batista anchored our rotation for most of the second half. Dreifort also pitched great before his injury, and Suppan provided needed depth.

Our bullpen looked like our major weakness after the draft, and as only Worrell, Guthrie, and Eyre posted decent marks, upgrading our relief corps ranked as our top priority as we approached the first supplemental draft.

We still believed that guys like Villafuerte and Mesa would make positive contributions at the end of April, and as we also needed catching help, we didn't concentrate our picks in any one area. Tom Martin joined our team with our first pick, and he was followed by Kelly Stinnett and Garrett Atkins, giving us another lefty, a third catcher, and a solid prospect who looked nearly ready to take Stynes' job.

A month later our offense continued to impress, and even with Dreifort down, our starting pitching looked okay, so we simply tried to add depth. First, we dealt Atkins to an owner looking for a young third baseman in exchange for three picks, acquiring up Matt Herges as a throw-in. Then, after selecting Jason Bay and Jason Ellison with our first two picks, we dealt Bay for Alex Cintron, who went one pick before Bay; the other owner needed outfield help, and we wanted the extra infielder. With our remaining four picks, we acquired Ryan Vogelsong, Miguel Ojeda, Javier Lopez, and J.J. Hardy, all players who reinforced our weakest areas.

With Marrero out indefinitely, Stinnett and Ojeda gave us alternatives to Barrett, while Herges and Lopez nicely reinforced our bullpen. Hardy replaced Atkins as the only high-upside position prospect in our minors.

By the third supplemental draft in the middle of June, we were one of only three teams with a winning percentage over .506. As we had little doubt that we would make the playoffs as long as our core position players remained healthy, we again looked to add depth while trying to find the ace we wanted for the post-season.

Consequently, in exchange for four more supplemental picks, three in June and a first round pick in July, we sent Cintron, who had just started emerging as a force, to the same owner to which we'd dealt Atkins. With the first of those picks, we selected Juan Uribe to replace Cintron on our bench.

Our first big trade of the year also occurred during the supplemental draft. Morgan Ensberg's development gave us the flexibility to trade a corner player, so fearing Cliff Floyd's fragility, we dealt Floyd with Jeff Suppan to acquire Kevin Millwood and Rod Beck. If Millwood stays in the National League as we hope, we expect him to anchor our starting rotation for the next five years. Given the second halves of Floyd and Suppan, we're surprised we hesitated in accepting the deal at the time.

During the draft, we also added Terrmel Sledge, Gary Matthews, Jr., who replaced the released Brian L. Hunter, Dave Ross, and Julian Tavarez. Once again, we used our extra picks to fix the areas on our roster with decreasing depth, specifically catching and relief pitching. Both Ross and Beck made needed contributions in the second half, while Matthews and Tavarez also helped in platoon situations. Our only mistake was dealing our next-to-last June supplemental pick for a first round pick in July; that action cost us Wilson Alvarez, who would have helped down the stretch.

We owned a 54-41 record at the All-Star break, and while we only led our division by a game, we remained one of only three teams with a winning percentage over .526. The loss of Patterson cost us our best defender, so our goal prior to the playoff roster deadline on September 1st was to find a replacement centerfielder and possibly one more starting pitcher. As we were growing concerned about losing Sheffield and/or Millwood to the American League after the season, we began exploring potential deals involving Sheffield.

With our last pick from the Cintron deal, we snagged D'Angelo Jimenez in July. The rest of that supplemental draft didn't go too well, as we only added mostly unneeded depth in the form of Jeff Duncan, Brandon Lyon, Dan Wheeler, and Jason Anderson. Duncan slumped right after we drafted him, and although Wheeler helped down the stretch, only Jimenez truly boosted our team in July.

By August, we'd opened up a 9 game lead in the division, yet we still worried about our defense. Consequently, right before the mid-month supplemental draft, we packaged Juan Cruz, Seung Song, Ryan Vogelsong, Terrmel Sledge, and Eli Marrero to the last place team for Jason LaRue, Endy Chavez, Mike Koplove, and three draft picks, including the first overall selection. While we didn't want to dump Cruz, not to mention Song, Vogelsong, or Sledge, adding the best defensive catcher, one of the best defensive center fielders, and especially the right to draft Sidney Ponson made the deal worth the price. If we lose Ponson to the AL, this trade will look foolish by the middle of 2004, however the playing time questions surrounding each prospect keep us from losing sleep over this move.

After selecting Ponson, we lucked into our best haul of the year, drafting Freddy Sanchez, Doug Glanville, another elite outfield defender, Nelson Figueroa, Corky Miller, and Tike Redman. By the playoffs, Redman was leading off for us against right-handers, Figueroa kept us from needing to use any AAA pitchers, and Glanville took over in center in the late innings. Miller gave us LaRue's back-up, and while Sanchez fizzled, he gives us a nice rookie for next season.

Even after these changes, we didn't want to miss our chance to win it all, so we made one more move with the intention of balancing our lineup while strengthening our bullpen and bench. Another owner expressed interest Jason Lane early in the year, and after exchanging proposals for a few months, we finally agreed to a deal. We traded Morgan Ensberg and Lane, receiving Paul Quantrill, John Vander Wal, Eduardo Perez, and after initially asking for Prince Fielder, we wound up acquiring Brad Wilkerson. Giving up Ensberg was tough, however Vander Wal and Perez own fantastic platoon splits, Quantrill ranked among the league's best relievers, and Wilkerson's skills suggest impressive upside.

Ensberg regained his starting job and continued excelling, but within two weeks of the trade, immediately after submitting our playoff roster, we lost Klesko and Perez, who would have hit cleanup against left-handers, for the rest of the season. Vander Wal also barely played in September, and Wilkerson struggled, leaving us only Quantrill to help our team in any obvious way. As Ponson also added little down the stretch, our two major deals failed to give us the boost we expected.

Of course, the good news is that we still finished second in our first season, and we believe we own a great foundation that will keep us competitive in this league indefinitely. As the level of competition is almost uniformly excellent, we also doubt we'll be able to find as many willing trade partners in the future after our success this season.

Looking towards the future, Pujols, Renteria, Patterson, Wilkerson, Zambrano, Eaton, and Peavy should remain in the NL for the next few years, giving us an excellent group of relatively young players to anchor our squad. Vidro, Sheffield, Millwood, and Ponson all will remain on our team as long as they stay in the league. As Hardy, Sanchez, and Ellison all qualify as rookies, we at least plan to keep Hardy and Sanchez through next season.

We still need to make a few hard decisions if we retain those eleven major leaguers. With only two keeper slots left unless we deal for more, we need a catcher and a third baseman, not to mention more starting pitching depth. Right now, Ryan Klesko and D'Angelo Jimenez top our list of potential keepers, however Miguel Batista, Kurt Ainsworth, Jason LaRue, Paul Quantrill, Trevor Hoffman, Rod Beck, and Darren Dreifort all merit consideration.

Our goal this winter is to convert all this relatively decent depth into a couple of elite players to join our core group. Hopefully, when we discuss next year's draft at the beginning of the 2004 season, we'll be able to report that we kept our team in position to compete for a playoff spot for the second year in a row.

Today's Fantasy Rx: In leagues with no restrictions on in-season maximum roster size and especially in those where you can keep players indefinitely, acquiring elite players is the best way to keep the team competitive. However, during the season look to add roster depth, particularly in areas with significant turnover such as reserve outfield and bullpen spots. Marginal pitchers appeared very easy to acquire, and while we doubt this holds true in all leagues, we see no reason to fundamentally shift our draft strategy next year. We expect to remain focused on top position players and starting pitchers for as long as possible before switching to positions with real depth, particularly right-handed relievers, players with significant platoon splits, and prospects.