Today's Fantasy Rx

To analyze the 2003 statistical trends in the five traditional hitting categories of HR, RBI, BA, SB, and Runs, I'll discuss each stat within a league context. I won't spend a significant amount of time focusing on this area, but I'd like to get an idea of how the 2003 category leaders rank against past seasons. We're already going over our keeper teams, and we'd like to know if we need to place additional importance on any particular categories.

First, we'll examine the skills of the average hitter in each league over the last four seasons.

AL	BB:K	BB/9	CT%	SB%	BA/OBP/SLG
2000	.61	.11	.82	69%	.276/.349/.443
2001	.50	.09	.81	71%	.267/.344/.428
2002	.51	.09	.82	68%	.264/.329/.424
2003	.52	.09	.82	70%	.267/.333/.428

NL	BB:K	BB/9	CT%	SB%	BA/OBP/SLG
2000	.56	.11	.80	69%	.266/.342/.432
2001	.48	.10	.80	66%	.261/.331/.425
2002	.52	.10	.80	68%	.259/.328/.410
2003	.51	.10	.81	69%	.262/.332/.417

Offense in both leagues headed upward this year after a couple years of gentle decline. Averages rose across-the-board, and improvement in stolen base percentage in both leagues suggested managers exercised slightly more caution in sending runners this year. This year looks largely similar to 2001 aside from the decline in AL OBP and mild erosion of NL power. Also, while the past three years comprised a downward trend in offense, 2002 looks like the true outlying season given that most trends reversed towards previous levels this year.

Before continuing, here are the raw counting numbers for the last four years.

AL	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB
2000	78547	11995	2688	11418	1297
2001	78164	11013	2506	10508	1647
2002	77788	10892	2464	10271	1236
2003	78311	11033	2499	10505	1279

NL	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB
2000	88743	12976	3005	12317	1626
2001	88100	12186	2952	11580	1456
2002	87794	11516	2595	10961	1514
2003	88426	11945	2708	11381	1293

Stolen Bases

Last season the AL experienced a 25% drop in stolen bases as Toronto essentially stopped running, Detroit adopted a more conservative game plan thanks to slower players, and the aging players on the Mariners and Yankees stole less bases. Although new speedsters emerged in both leagues this season, we saw steals drop by 15% in the National League. Only a couple teams stole more bases while Florida, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Colorado, and San Francisco combined to drop from 574 steals to only 414. Florida dropped by 28 steals thank to the difference in managerial styles between Jeff Torborg and Jack McKeon, but the decreases on the other four teams appear directly due to new personnel. The National League's improved slugging percentage this year also suggests teams placed additional value on power over speed, thus accounting for the apparent increase in playing time by slower players.

In the National League, the number of baserunners with 20 steals or more dropped from 18 to 12 and the number of baserunners with 30 steals or more dropped from 10 to 5. While around 40 players again reached double-digit steals, the loss of SB depth likely created category bunching in most leagues. Dave Roberts stole 40 bases for the second straight season while Juan Pierre jumped from 47 steals to 65, but the surprised here was the combination of Scott Podsednik's emergence with the respective drops from Luis Castillo(48 to 21 SB) and Vlad Guerrero(40 to 9 SB). With Alex Sanchez and Aaron Boone heading to the NL and Kenny Lofton and Eric Young heading into an uncertain winter of free agency, only Corey Patterson appears likely to join Pierre, Podsednik, Roberts, and Edgar Renteria at 30+ SB in 2004.

The American League experienced an infusion of speed thanks to the 44 steals of Alex Sanchez and the impressive totals of Tampa's Carl Crawford(55 SB), Rocco Baldelli(27 SB), and Marlon Anderson(19 SB). Last season Alfonso Soriano led the league with 41 SB, followed by Carlos Beltran at 35 SB; in 2003 they exchanged SB totals but slipped from 1st and 2nd in the league to 3rd and 4th. A total of six players stole 30 or more bases both years as Ichiro and Damon remained over 30 both seasons while Derek Jeter and Mike Cameron fell from a total of 63 SB to only 26 SB. Only three less basestealers reached 20 or more SB while the number who reached double-digit steals jumped from 35 to over 40. The additional speed in the league creates more opportunities for savvy owners to gain dominance in additional categories by either lucking into an elite speedster like Crawford or taking advantage of the superior category depth to avoid overpaying for a Suzuki or Damon.

A year ago, I hypothesized that the NL would lose some steals as players shift to the AL. While my suggestion to avoid dealing the top AL thieves panned out as we saw impressive consistency in the leader board, the additional steals in the AL seem almost entirely due to Alex Sanchez's move from Milwaukee to Detroit. Unfortunately the National League regressed much further than I anticipated and the emergence of new SB sources like Podsednik didn't compensate for the loss of formerly elite speedsters like Castillo and Vlad.

Look for a drop in steals of 5-10% in both leagues next year as more teams focus on OBP and power while adopting a more conservative approach on the bases. Now if someone like Wally Backman wins a managerial job, we could see that team experience a significant jump in steals. However, we certainly expect any increase in the number of sabermetrically-oriented GMs to translate into a drop in SB opportunities for poor percentage basestealers, as well as a decrease in SB attempts by their teams. These trends suggest anyone who owns speedsters at good keeper prices definitely should keep them heading into next season.

Home Runs

Four American Leaguers exceeded 40 homers in each of the last two seasons and a total of 13 AL players reached 30 or more homers. Jason Giambi displayed the most consistency by smacking 41 homers in both years while Alex Rodriguez fell from 57 bombs to 47 and Frank Thomas and Carlos Delgado replaced Thome and Rafael Palmeiro above 40 homers. Of course, Palmeiro managed another 38 homers while Soriano again fell a couple longballs short of 40, but the overall consistency here should ease the difficult in predicting next year's results. More players reached 25 or more homers this year, however much of this improvement appears due to the same players receiving more at-bats.

In the NL, the addition of Thome and tremendous rebounds by Javy Lopez, Richard Hidalgo, and other veterans compensated for decreased production from Shawn Green, Pat Burrell, Jeff Kent, and Fred McGriff. The mild league-wide increase in homers appears less due to introduction of the Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati than the decision by several teams to dump the majority of their experienced pitchers as they tested unproven youngsters. Of course, with the majority of top NL power hitters in their power primes and likely to maintain their current production in 2004, another increase in the total number of homers appears likely even if we shouldn't approach the pre-2002 levels.

As expected, the limited drug testing program implemented in the new CBA resulted in no obvious change in hitters' power. With no other outside force like the "new strike zone" exerting a known influence over players' stats, I see no statistical support here for any conclusion other than suggesting the power production of both leagues should remain relatively stable through another season.

Today's Fantasy Rx: My predictions for today's games(all times CDT):

3:00 on ESPN: Florida@San Francisco
6:00 on ESPN: Chicago Cubs@Atlanta
9:00 on ESPN: Boston@Oakland

While we happily nailed the winners of all three games yesterday, I didn't view them as particularly challenging contests. The logical storylines that emerged included the Yankees' overconfidence and Twins' historical Game 1 success, Jason Schmidt's dominance throughout the season, and Kerry Wood's determination to redeem himself for failing to win the only previous Cubs' Division Series game. Today generally offers more uncertain match-ups across the board, although I'll be shocked if Pedro loses.

The number of players who reached double-digits in both homers and steals jumped from 42 to 50 this season, adding more support to the strategy of avoiding one-category studs like Alex Sanchez in standard leagues given the increasing pool of power hitters with decent speed.