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September
8th
2003
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
Rotohelp
2003 Hitting: September AL Roto Prospects
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

I'm going to spend a few days looking at potential fantasy help currently residing in the upper levels of the minors, one hitter and one pitcher, so you can know who to monitor for potential FAABing. Since most teams will still promote talent from AAA if given the chance, I'll only select a AA prospect if a AAA club lacks any promotion-worthy candidates.

We begin today with American League batting prospects.


Note: For those of you unfamiliar with FAAB, each team normally begins with $100 to spend throughout the year on all free agent pickups. Most injury replacements or speculative picks go for a buck or two, hot starters go for $5-$10, top prospects go in the $10-$30 range, and we've seen $90+ bids on top players traded into the league.

Anaheim: Barry Wesson, 26, OF-R
0/5 for .000/.000/.000 with 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 0:2 BB:K for Anaheim.
133/475 for .280/.334/.413 with 8 HR, 53 RBI, 62 R, 17/20 SB%,
and a 38:86 BB:K for AAA Salt Lake(PCL).

Tom Gregorio will see some time at catcher and could contribute in extremely deep leagues, however Wesson offers more immediate fantasy upside even if he shouldn't see the field too frequently. While he only owns a little power and demonstrates no plate discipline, Wesson's solid speed skills could give some teams a boost at 5th outfielder. Of course, with Chone Figgins and Trent Durrington already on the Angels' bench, Mike Scioscia won't need to use Wesson often, which suggests you should ignore Wesson for now.

Previously discussed 2003 Anaheim hitting prospects: May: Alfredo Amezaga; June: Chone Figgins; July: Trent Durrington; August: Robb Quinlan.


Baltimore: Tim Raines, Jr., 24, OF-R
4/24 for .167/.167/.250 with 0 HR, 2 RBI, 2 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 0:8 BB:K for Baltimore.
64/214 for .299/.357/.439 with 3 HR, 23 RBI, 37 R, 23/32 SB%,
and a 19:37 BB:K for AAA Ottawa(IL).
76/247 for .308/.371/.449 with 4 HR, 26 RBI, 44 R, 28/34 SB%,
and a 21:40 BB:K for AA Bowie(EL).

Although the Orioles recalled Raines three weeks ago, even the Jeff Conine trade didn't open much playing time for him as Larry Bigbie, Luis Matos, and Melvin Mora continue starting in the outfield. Yet after posting a miserable .261/.310/.342 at AA Bowie in 2002, Raines' rebound this season places him back in contention for a starting outfield spot in Baltimore next spring. Obviously he needs to maintain an average near .300 in the majors to possess much value since he lacks much plate discipline, however Raines also possesses sufficient speed to help fantasy teams in even a limited role. Consider a small FAAB bid now in the hopes he'll rack a half-dozen steals off the bench this month before boosting his SB numbers significantly in 2004.

Previously discussed 2003 Baltimore hitting prospects: May: Brian Roberts; June: Jack Cust; July: Robert Machado; August: Jose Leon.


Boston: Andy Abad, 31, 1B/OF-L
0/2 for .000/.000/.000 with 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 0:1 BB:K for Boston.
153/504 for .304/.372/.462 with 13 HR, 93 RBI, 78 R, 0/3 SB%,
and a 55:67 BB:K for AAA Pawtucket(IL).

Abad already has tripled his career number of at-bats in the majors, and he should remain a primary lefty pinch-hitter for Boston through the end of the season. He doesn't possess impressive power potential, yet he hasn't posted a AAA BA below .297 since his 1997 debut at that level and he owns enough plate discipline to take full advantage of his hitting skill. Abad essentially will fill the role that the Red Sox hoped Jeremy Giambi would play for them prior to his injury, however while he should help Boston towards the post-season, you should ignore him since Abad won't see enough playing time to contribute to fantasy teams.

Previously discussed 2003 Boston hitting prospects: May: Freddy Sanchez; June: Lou Collier; July: Chad Mottola; August: Kevin Youkilis.


Chicago White Sox: Jamie Burke, 31, C-R
2/3 for .667/.667/.667 with 0 HR, 2 RBI, 0 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 0:0 BB:K for Chicago(A).
104/323 for .322/.363/.418 with 6 HR, 50 RBI, 47 R, 1/2 SB%,
and a 20:39 BB:K for AAA Charlotte(IL).

Burke replaces the departed Josh Paul as Chicago's third catcher, however as Jerry Manuel appears quite comfortable with Miguel Olivo and Sandy Alomar on a daily basis, he shouldn't see much playing time this month. Although seeing Burke's average continuing to increase as he enters his thirties suggests he still might develop into a decent roto option, only his solid contact rate allows him to maintain a .300+ BA. Unfortunately, I don't see the necessary plate discipline or power skills necessary for him to escape a AAAA label, so ignore Burke unless you simply need a catcher who won't hurt your BA over the next few weeks.

Previously discussed 2003 Chicago(A) hitting prospects: May: Cliff Brumbaugh; June: Aaron Miles; July: Ross Gload; August: Tim Hummel.


Cleveland: Chris Magruder, 26, OF-S
45/137 for .328/.391/.474 with 3 HR, 15 RBI, 20 R, 5/6 SB%,
and a 15:27 BB:K for AAA Buffalo(IL).
6/13 for .462/.500/.462 with 0 HR, 3 RBI, 0 R, 1/1 SB%,
and a 1:2 BB:K for AA Akron(EL).
2/11 for .182/.357/.364 with 0 HR, 0 RBI, 5 R, 2/2 SB%,
and a 2:1 BB:K for R+ Mahoning Valley(NYP).

Magruder looked like a future potential starter outfielder posting a .282/.375/.385 with a 67:75 BB:K in 496 AB for AA Shreveport(TL) in 2000, but a combination of injuries and inconsistent play over the last few years suggests he might peak as a utility player. While Cleveland possesses impressive long-term outfield depth, injuries to Milton Bradley, Matt Lawton, and Ryan Ludwick leave the Tribe a little short at the moment, so Magruder will receive a brief trial this year as a back-up. He still possesses enough speed and plate discipline to impress someone, however I don't envision him seeing sufficient playing time to warrant an immediate pick-up. Ignore him unless he unexpectedly begins starting every day.

Previously discussed 2003 Cleveland hitting prospects: May: Coco Crisp; June: Travis Hafner; July: Greg LaRocca; August: Alex Escobar.


Detroit: Omar Infante, 21, 2B/SS-R
43/202 for .213/.275/.243 with 0 HR, 7 RBI, 20 R, 5/8 SB%,
and a 18:35 BB:K for Detroit.
50/224 for .223/.299/.295 with 2 HR, 18 RBI, 28 R, 22/26 SB%,
and a 22:32 BB:K for AAA Toledo(IL).

The decision to keep Infante on the Opening Day roster still seems justifiable in retrospect given his .333/.360/.417 performance in 72 at-bats last September. He even displayed very promising patience at the plate before his late-June demotion by posting a 3.90 #P/PA, which supports a .09 walk rate, a fairly decent mark for a 21-year-old. Infante's main problem this season is that after managing a .89 contact rate for Toledo and a .86 mark for Detroit in 2002, he respectively slipped to mark of .86 and .83 in 2003. A jump in his G-F from .95 to 1.36 also wasn't sufficient for him to take advantage of his speed by hitting the ball and the ground, and the Tigers often didn't let him run even when he reached base. Fortunately Infante won't turn 22 until December, Detroit still recognizes he possesses significant upside, and he owns the speed necessary to emerge as a useful roto player in 2004. Although he probably could use a minor league refresher course similar to the one on which Roy Halladay embarked a few years ago, Infante also could beat out Warren Morris for the starting second base job in the spring. Consider a minimum FAAB bid if the Tigers recall him later this month, however you also shouldn't keep him next season unless he at least posts decent numbers in winter ball.

Previously discussed 2003 Detroit hitting prospects: May: Kevin Witt; June: Andres Torres; July: Ernie Young; August: Cody Ross.


Kansas City: Jarrod Patterson, 30, 3B-L
3/15 for .200/.333/.200 with 0 HR, 0 RBI, 3 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 3:2 BB:K for Kansas City.
123/478 for .257/.329/.448 with 18 HR, 91 RBI, 74 R, 4/5 SB%,
and a 51:92 BB:K for AAA Omaha(PCL).

One of the best AAAA players generally found in the upper minors every year, Patterson may be back with Kansas City now, however if he couldn't find regular playing time back in July with Joe Randa injured, we certainly won't see much of him now. Patterson possesses the power and plate discipline necessary to contribute to the Royals' playoff push, yet Tony Pena doesn't view him even as a secondary option of the bench. Ignore Patterson unless Randa experiences further health problems.

Previously discussed 2003 Kansas City hitting prospects: May: Brent Abernathy; June: Morgan Burkhart; July: Mike Kelly; August: David DeJesus.


Minnesota: Rob Bowen, 22, C-S
0/2 for .000/.000/.000 with 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 0:0 BB:K for Minnesota.
27/105 for .257/.333/.495 with 6 HR, 17 RBI, 14 R, 0/0 SB%,
and an 11:25 BB:K for AAA Rochester(IL).
41/134 for .306/.376/.425 with 1 HR, 16 RBI, 17 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 13:24 BB:K for AA New Britain(EL).

Bowen posted a horrendous .184/.272/.313 performance at A+ Fort Myers(FSL) in 2002, but after returning from injury this year, he reasserted himself as one of the best hitting catching prospects in baseball. Of course, he plays for a franchise with an All-Star behind the plate and a back-up catcher who owns enough power and overall offensive upside to start at DH, not to mention the top prospect in the game charging up the ladder behind him. Given Joe Mauer's Gold Glover-caliber defense at catcher and the likelihood he'll reach the majors in 2004, Bowen needs a new organization as desperately as Twins' outfield prospects Lew Ford and Mikes Ryan and Restovich. The absence of any short-term playing time means you should ignore Bowen right now, however if a catching-needy team like the Cubs manages to swap a couple of pitching prospect for Bowen, he could approach double-digit value next season.

Previously discussed 2003 Minnesota hitting prospects: May: Luis Rodriguez; June: Justin Morneau; July: Dave Lamb; August: Mike Restovich.


New York Yankees: Drew Henson, 23, 3B-R
0/1 for .000/.000/.000 with 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 0:0 BB:K for New York(A).
113/483 for .234/.291/.412 with 14 HR, 78 RBI, 60 R, 8/12 SB%,
and a 32:111 BB:K for AAA Columbus(IL).

The Yankees owe Henson $12M to play baseball over the next three seasons, and if he decides to ignore everyone suggesting he quit and instead honors his current contract, he still will head to the NFL as a 26-year-old only approaching his prime. Although all Henson's averages decreased this year, an extra hit per month would have kept his averages the same. More importantly, his walk rate(.08 '02; .07 '03) barely slipped and his contact rate shot upward from .68 in 2002 to .77 this season, a shocking 13% increase. While we expected noticeable improvement from him, the dramatic drop in his strikeout rate is a very promising sign that suggests he should develop into a top power hitter. Ignore him now in nearly every league since he needs more time in the minors, but we continue to believe his future looks brightest in baseball, a sport where muscle-bound behemoths won't try to tackle him dozens of times every week.

Previously discussed 2003 New York(A) hitting prospects: May: Michel Hernandez; June: Bobby Smith; July: Fernando Seguignol; August: Juan Rivera.


Oakland: Graham Koonce, 28, 1B-L
133/480 for .277/.403/.542 with 34 HR, 115 RBI, 82 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 98:119 BB:K for AAA Sacramento(PCL).

The 2003 minor league home run leader, Koonce should head to Oakland as soon as the RiverCats' playoff run ends. Oakland stole Koonce from San Diego in the minor league Rule 5 draft after the Padres bizarrely left him exposed even though he hit .274/.440/.487 with a 133:117 BB:K in 470 AA at-bats last season. Now, even though he likely won't contribute for many years in the majors, Koonce looks ready to excel as a 1B or DH in the majors. He seemed a great replacement for former pending free agent Scott Hatteberg until Oakland signed Hatteberg to an inane extension, a deal that looks particularly bad when considering Koonce could have outperformed Hatteberg this year. Expect Oakland to deal Koonce somewhere like Boston where he can start in 2004, so if you have the chance to FAAB from later this month, jump at the chance to add someone easily capable of earning double-digit value next season.

Previously discussed 2003 Oakland hitting prospects: May: Jose Flores; June: Esteban German; July: Bobby Crosby; August: Mike Edwards.


Seattle: Jamal Strong, 25, OF-R
0/1 for .000/.000/.000 with 0 HR, 0 RBI, 1 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 0:0 BB:K for Seattle.
64/210 for .305/.390/.371 with 2 HR, 19 RBI, 38 R, 26/37 SB%,
and a 25:38 BB:K for AAA Tacoma(PCL).
5/7 for .714/.692/1.000 with 0 HR, 4 RBI, 5 R, 3/3 SB%,
and a 3:1 BB:K for R Mariners(AZL).

Although Strong missed over half the season after dislocating his left shoulder in the spring, Seattle promoted him to AAA upon his return, and Strong rewarded them by reasserting himself as a top leadoff prospect. Seattle might keep him on the bench next year if the choose to replace Mike Cameron by adding a power-hitting left fielder and sliding Randy Winn over to center, however Strong's combination of on-base skills and SB upside make him a potential double-digit value even if he doesn't start. Given the club's willingness to employ Willie Bloomquist as a rookie utilityman, expect Strong to fill a similar role for the team during both this September and 2004. Of course, owners in keeper leagues also should try to FAAB Strong cheaply now in case the Mariners give him a starting job.

Previously discussed 2003 Seattle hitting prospects: May: Chad Meyers; June: Luis Figueroa; July: Pat Borders; August: Luis Ugueto.


Tampa Bay: Jonny Gomes, 22, OF-R
6/19 for .316/.435/.526 with 0 HR, 1 RBI, 2 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 2:5 BB:K for AAA Durham(IL).
110/442 for .249/.348/.441 with 17 HR, 56 RBI, 68 R, 23/25 SB%,
and a 53:148 BB:K for AA Orlando(SL).

Joey Gathright, Josh Hamilton, and even Gomes' brother Joey all appear more likely than Jonny to assert themselves as the Rays' long-term right fielder alongside Baldelli and Crawford. Yet with his current play keying Durham's playoff run and a contact rate that jumped from .61 to .67 despite moving from the California League to the Southern League, Gomez could impress Piniella this month to the point where the power-deficient Rays given him a long look in the spring. I don't envision Gomes playing effectively in the majors before 2005, but after the team's surprising success with Crawford and Baldelli, I give Gomes a decent chance at least to perform acceptably over the short-term. A minimum FAAB bid now could net you a surprising reward in deeper keeper leagues.

Previously discussed 2003 Tampa Bay hitting prospects: May: Antonio Perez; June: Jason Smith; July: Pete LaForest; August: Jared Sandberg.


Texas: Jermaine Clark, 26, OF/2B/UT-L
0/11 for .000/.200/.000 with 0 HR, 1 RBI, 0 R, 0/1 SB%,
and a 3:1 BB:K between Texas and San Diego.
78/331 for .236/.316/.387 with 10 HR, 34 RBI, 51 R, 25/29 SB%,
and a 38:50 BB:K between AAA Oklahoma(PCL) and AAA Portland(PCL).

Clark opened the year in Texas, played himself off the 40-man roster before April ended, joined San Diego on waivers, saw another few days in the majors with the Padres before they outrighted him at the end of May, and then rejoined the Rangers in a July trade. Unfortunately, despite his impressive track record prior to the season, neither club gave him an extended shot as a starter, so while he obviously still possesses great speed and decent on-base skills, his weak average and lack of power relegate him to bench duty for the moment. Texas only recalled him this month as an infield backup due to Donnie Sadler's injury problems, so even though I still like his long-term potential, ignore him now since he won't see enough playing time to merit a roster spot.

Previously discussed 2003 Texas hitting prospects: May: Jeff Pickler; June: Ryan Ludwick; July: Jason Hart; August: Ramon Nivar.


Toronto: Gabe Gross, 23, OF-L
48/182 for .264/.380/.456 with 5 HR, 23 RBI, 22 R, 1/2 SB%,
and a 31:56 BB:K for AAA Syracuse(IL).
99/310 for .319/.423/.481 with 7 HR, 51 RBI, 52 R, 3/5 SB%,
and a 52:53 BB:K for AA New Haven(EL).

While Gross may not see the majors this month, he looks essentially ready to start for the Jays in the right field if the team doesn't re-sign Frank Catalanotto. His homer totals remain unimpressive and his .78 contact rate should be higher, yet Gross' 39 doubles, .17 walk rate, and a .254 EQA demonstrate the skill set necessary to contribute immediately in the big leagues. Certainly attempt to FAAB Gross as soon he debuts since he will begin his career by approaching double-digit value before quickly joining the ranks of the top roto outfielders.

Previously discussed 2003 Toronto hitting prospects: May: Reed Johnson; June: Tony Zuniga; July: Kevin Cash; August: Howie Clark.


Today's Fantasy Rx: You'll see a significant number of new names on free agent lists due to call-ups over the last week, yet other than the several players I discussed in this space last week, few newbies are likely to contribute to fantasy teams. Many top prospects will follow Ramon Nivar's path through minor league playoffs to the Arizona Fall League, and unless you possess the roster space to stash a couple potential keepers, players who've spent most of the year in the majors remain the most likely candidates to provide late help to fantasy teams.


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Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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