Today's Fantasy Rx

On our second day of examining September trends, I'll review hitters who, over the past three years, lose at least .050 BA and .100 OPS from August to September. I focused on players who compiled 100 AB in both months over the past three years. They also must show a drop in both BA and OPS from August to September while registering at least 25 at-bats in both months in each of the last three years.

Shannon Stewart, OF, MIN: -.080 BA; -.210 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between August and September:
2000: .148/.417; 2001: .087/.225; 2002: .015/.006.

00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
August	351	28:31	.345/.402/.527
Sept.	298	22:31	.265/.323/.396

03Aug	104	6:17	.308/.351/.510

Stewart deserves some credit for owning the skill set necessary to finally convince Ron Gardenhire to rework his lineup. While the Twins still give away runs on a nightly basis thanks to their middle infield, Stewart's .406 OBP at the top of the lineup gives the heart-of-the-order more RBI opportunities than they saw earlier in the year. Unfortunately, though Stewart didn't really slump last season, his weak plate discipline in August suggests a pending slump, and any extended problems from both Stewart and Guzman will definitely put a crimp in the Twins' playoff chances. Explore a deal of Stewart since his contribution in batting average and runs likely isn't as great as the value of someone with five-category upside, who you could probably acquire when trading him.

Brad Ausmus, C, HOU: -.077 BA; -.180 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between August and September:
2000: .054/.089; 2001: .071/.216; 2002: .107/.248.

00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
August	258	19:34	.310/.356/.422
Sept.	227	20:31	.233/.298/.300

03Aug	54	10:12	.315/.415/.426

While we've witnessed a nice rebound in Ausmus' plate discipline this season to the skill level he displayed with Detroit, a 1.51 G-F prevents him from possessing much value. His .295 BA over the last six weeks has helped compensate for the awful .201/.274/.258 he posted prior to the All-Star Break, but Ausmus only truly possesses significant value when prohibited from facing right-handers. Of course, Houston wants him playing nearly every game for defensive purposes, so given his normal September struggles, most owners likely should look to deal Ausmus now before he again begins dragging down your team average.

Marlon Anderson, 2B, TB: -.079 BA; -.166 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between August and September:
2000: .089/.228; 2001: .122/.212; 2002: .013/.048.

00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
August	275	19:38	.284/.331/.385
Sept.	229	20:28	.205/.275/.275

03Aug	61	6:9	.344/.406/.459

Anderson appears primed for an immediate slump given his lofty averages this month and his merely decent skills. The good news for Anderson is that Lou Piniella appreciates his style of play and the Devil Rays lack any competition for his job, so we expect Anderson to return as Tampa's starting second baseman next year. A 90% SB success rate, 3.74 #P/PA, and a career-best 1.38 G-F all suggest the 29-year-old still can improve in future seasons, and even if he doesn't help the Rays win many games, his respectable BA, solid speed, and improving power give him solid value at a weak position. Unfortunately, unless you require his steals, the likelihood of Anderson struggling at the plate in September means you should look to deal him while his value remains high.

Cristian Guzman, SS, MIN: -.081 BA; -.162 OPS
Yearly BA/OPS decrease between August and September:
2000: .087/.311; 2001: .072/.063; 2002: .071/.053.

00-02	AB	BB:K	BA/OBP/SLG 
August	271	14:40	.306/.340/.421
Sept.	271	6:45	.225/.245/.354

03Aug	67	5:10	.328/.365/.373

These are rather impressive averages considering Guzman's skills haven't improved in any obvious area this month. Of course, the surges in both his OBP and SLG are only due to the unsupported BA jump, so Guzman looks even more likely than normal to see his average plummet 80 or more points this September. Although the Twins play a very soft schedule to close the year, spending the last three weeks exclusively against the White Sox, Indians, and Tigers, all three teams possess fairly strong-armed backstops, so we can't count on more than a few more steals from Guzman. The good news is that his skills are back at his 2001 levels instead of his mostly abhorrent 2002 marks, however he isn't an asset to the Twins and contributes relatively little to most fantasy teams. Look to deal Guzman unless you're willing to withstand another BA hit to obtain a few extra steals and runs.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Brian Anderson's 10 wins, 3.68 ERA, and 1.29 WHIP for Cleveland placed him among the more useful starters in the American League. Unfortunately, moving to Kansas City drains him of most of his fantasy value in standard leagues. Despite a decent 1.12 G-F, his 1.3 HR/9 likely will rise to 1.5 or more due to playing home games in Kauffman Stadium, and as Kauffman also increases run scoring by nearly 25% compared to Jacobs Field, expect Anderson's ERA to wind up well above 4.00 for the year. Even his outstanding current 5-start QA log of 50455 likely won't allow Anderson to maintain much value in any category outside of wins. Unless you can afford a qualitative hit over the last five weeks, try to move him to someone with a greater need for wins.