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August
14th
2003
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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2003 Pitching: July NL Overachievers
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Arizona: Miguel Batista, RH Starter
7-6 on a 102:37 K:BB in 142 IP over 20 GS(27G)
with 134 H, 8 HR, and a 1.92 G-F; 2.92 ERA.

The Diamondbacks may feature the strongest playoff rotation in the league with Randy, Schilling, Cy Young contender Brandon Webb, and Miguel Batista, who owns skills right now that compare favorably with the three stud starters. Batista's success this season appears primarily due to his 2.3 BB/9, an impressive improvement in his control considering he never posted a walk rate below 3.4 prior to this season. However all his skill trends continue heading in positive directions, and Batista's current 5-start QA log of 55334 suggests he should finish the year with well over $20 of roto value. His emergence into a very valuable fantasy commodity ranks as one of the more underreported stories of the year, so take advantage of the lack of media attention to try to acquire Batista for the stretch run.

July Overachiever: Brandon Webb, RH Starter
Old stats: 4-2 on a 58:22 K:BB in 77 IP over 11 GS(12G)
with 54 H, 5 HR, and a 3.59 G-F; 2.10 ERA.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 3-3 on a 62:19 K:BB in 51.2 IP over 8 GS
with 46 H, 5 HR, and a 2.96 ERA.

Previous Overachiever: April: Matt Mantei; May: Oscar Villarreal.


Internet Challenge

SP(6)
Randy Johnson: Fri:@ATL(S.Reynolds)
Pedro Martinez: Sat:@SEA(J.Pineiro)
Curt Schilling: Sun:@ATL(G.Maddux)
Mike Mussina: Sun:@BAL(Rod.Lopez)
Kerry Wood: Sat:LA(Od.Perez)
Roy Halladay: Sun:@OAK(B.Zito)
Jason Schmidt: Sat:@MON(Z.Day)
Mark Prior: Fri:LA(M.Kida)
Esteban Loaiza: Fri:@TEX(C.Lewis)

No starts: Morris, Oswalt, Millwood, Brown, and Ainsworth.

Wood and Prior are obvious picks as they start home games against a very weak offense, and Mussina also faces an unimpressive team. Halladay and Schmidt both look decent, and then Randy faces a lesser opponent than Pedro or Schilling, as well as a less imposing environment than Loaiza in Texas.

While we don't need to drop our last player today, particularly with roster expansion in a week, we'll cut Austin Kearns when we need the spot. This weekend Helton sits in New York, Aramis Ramirez sits at home against the Dodgers' great pitching, and then we need to activate Marcus Giles for cap reasons. The three logical reserves for Giles are Carl Everett, Hideki Matsui, and Vernon Wells. Everett looks like an excellent gamble as he returns to Texas, and while Wells is developing impressive plate discipline in the second half, he plays in Oakland as Matsui travels to Baltimore. Matsui also owns much better power numbers over the last few weeks, so we'll sit Wells in favor of Giles.


The Umpire Hunter(9th lg; 214th overall)
Week 20b: August 15-August 17

C	Jorge Posada		1120
C	Toby Hall		460
1B	Aubrey Huff		610
1B	Erubiel Durazo		520
2B	Alfonso Soriano		1460
2B	Luis Castillo		1210
3B	Aaron Boone		1010
3B	Hank Blalock		500
SS	Alex Rodriguez		2010
SS	Nomar Garciaparra	1330
OF	Vlad Guerrero		2010
OF	Lance Berkman		1640
OF	Manny Ramirez		1610
OF	Preston Wilson		1220 
OF	Carl Everett		850
OF	Hideki Matsui		750
DH	Orlando Cabrera		1030
DH	Marcus Giles		400

SP	Randy Johnson		2010
SP	Mike Mussina		1210
SP	Kerry Wood		990
SP	Roy Halladay		890
SP	Jason Schmidt		790
SP	Mark Prior		750
RP	Eric Gagne		1430
RP	Mike MacDougal		750
RP	Tim Worrell		740
RP	Matt Mantei		700

Total Salary for Week 20b: 	30000


Today's Fantasy Rx: The only three NL teams with below-average rotations, above-average bullpens, and respectable offenses are Cincinnati, Milwaukee, and Colorado. Unfortunately the Brewers aren't winning many games and neither Cincy nor Colorado pitchers are overly useful in leagues that count qualitative stats. Instead, the best NL teams on which to target relievers with good chances to vulture wins are Philadelphia and San Francisco. Although each team fields a couple top starters, neither rotation is overly stable and both bullpens offer extremely skilled pitchers. Jose Mesa may need the Phillies in wins out of the bullpen, but your two targets here should be Rheal Cormier and Terry Adams, who each rank among baseball's best relievers. Joe Nathan and occasional starter Jim Brower lead Giants' relievers in wins, and Nathan and Matt Herges are the most likely candidates to vulture wins over the next six weeks.


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