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July
24th
2003
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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2003 Pitching: July NL Underachievers
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Arizona: Randy Johnson, LH Starter
1-3 on a 37:7 K:BB in 29.1 IP over 5 GS
with 36 H, 4 HR, and a 1.95 G-F; 5.83 ERA.

Johnson managed a 4304 QA log prior to his injury, so a 5 QA start upon his return is impressive even after considering he dominated the Padres in San Diego. We dealt for him in one league a couple months ago, and you might still have a chance to acquire him if his owner is concerned about his ERA or further injury. I don't expect to see him encounter further health problems this year, so given his 11.4 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, and career-best 1.95 G-F, combined with Arizona's surge into the Wild Card race, I see no reason not to target Randy. He belongs near the top of the list for anyone seeking to add an elite starting pitcher.

June Underachiever: Elmer Dessens, RH Starter
Old stats: 4-4 on a 50:31 K:BB in 83.2 IP over 15 GS
with 105 H, 14 HR, and a 133-93 G-F; 5.38 ERA.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 1-3 on a 26:10 K:BB in 34.1 IP over 6 GS
with 37 H, 3 HR, and a 4.98 ERA.

Previous underachievers: April: Mike Myers; May: Byung-Hyun Kim.


Internet Challenge

SP(6)
Randy Johnson: Fri:LA(Od.Perez)
Pedro Martinez: Fri:NYY(D.Wells)
Curt Schilling: Sun:LA(H.Nomo)
Mike Mussina: Sat:@BOS(J.Burkett)
Kevin Millwood: Sun:@FLO(C.Pavano)
Roy Halladay: Sun:BAL(Rod.Lopez)
Mark Prior???: Sun:@HOU(J.Robertson)???
Esteban Loaiza: Fri:TB(Jor.Sosa)

No starts: Morris, Oswalt, Wood, Brown, Schmidt, and Ainsworth.

Randy, Pedro, Schilling, Halladay, and Loaiza are easy calls as home starts, and if we can find cap room, we slightly prefer Mussina to Millwood due to their respective recent performances.

Apparently we can fit all our expensive pitchers, however we need to deploy Williamson for Gagne, and then we'll sit both ARod and Vlad in order to deploy Helton at home against Milwaukee.


The Umpire Hunter(12th lg; 284th overall)
Week 17b: July 25-July 27

C	Jorge Posada		1120
C	Toby Hall		460
1B	Aubrey Huff		610
1B	Erubiel Durazo		520
2B	Alfonso Soriano		1460
2B	Luis Castillo		1210 
3B	Aramis Ramirez		820
3B	Hank Blalock		500
SS	Nomar Garciaparra	1330
SS	Orlando Cabrera		1030
OF	Lance Berkman		1640
OF	Manny Ramirez		1610
OF	Preston Wilson		1220 
OF	Carl Everett		850
OF	Vernon Wells		750
OF	Hideki Matsui		750
DH	Todd Helton		1850
DH	Aaron Boone		1010

SP	Randy Johnson		2010
SP	Pedro Martinez		1700
SP	Curt Schilling		1610
SP	Mike Mussina		1210
SP	Roy Halladay		890
SP	Esteban Loaiza		680
RP	Scott Williamson	960
RP	Mike MacDougal		750
RP	Tim Worrell		740
RP	Matt Mantei		700

Total Salary for Week 17b: 	29990


Today's Fantasy Rx: When reviewing the starts of rookie pitchers, don't necessarily pay too much attention to their debuts. The Cubs started AA right-hander Sergio Mitre only because he was the best upper-level pitcher on schedule to start any game on Tuesday. He predictably struggled given his questionable skills, and Juan Cruz remains the best bet to emerge in the rotation, likely supplanting Shawn Estes after Prior returns. Similarly, if you're considering investing in a spot starter who impresses in his first outing, make sure that the pitcher owns the skills necessary to succeed in the majors and that the organization doesn't prefer someone in the upper minors who might have just pitched the previous day.


Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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