Today's Fantasy Rx

Note: For those of you unfamiliar with FAAB, each team normally begins with $100 to spend throughout the year on all free agent pickups. Most injury replacements or speculative picks go for a buck or two, hot starters go for $5-$10, top prospects go in the $10-$30 range, and we've seen $90+ bids on top players traded into the league.

Anaheim: Doug Nickle, 28, RH Reliever
2-2 and 3 Saves on a 22:17 K:BB in 44 IP over 29 G
with 36 H, 1 HR, and a 1.64 ERA at AAA Salt Lake(PCL).

Anaheim's major league pitching depth should allow them to avoid calling up any of the dozen questionable pitchers currently rostered at Salt Lake, but if they need a reliever and again pass over Greg Jones, Nickle looks first in line for a promotion. While his fantastic ERA certainly merits some attention, his skills suggest he isn't ready to join the Angels. Nickle never displayed much dominance, and his 4.5 K/9 is unacceptable, especially when paired with a 3.5 BB/9. Ignore any call-up of Nickel since even though his .2 HR/9 in Salt Lake is an impressive mark, he otherwise possesses no stats that indicate he currently could succeed in the majors.

Previously discussed 2003 AL pitching prospects: May: Greg Jones; June: Bart Miadich.

Baltimore: John Stephens, 23, RH Starter
3-3 on a 72:26 K:BB in 94.2 IP over 17 GS
with 100 H, 10 HR, and a 4.66 ERA at AAA Ottawa(IL).

Stephens isn't pitching quite as well as last year, but we knew he'd spend most of the year at Ottawa once the Orioles signed Helling and Daal. Fortunately Stephens still owns excellent command and decent dominance, and hopefully Baltimore won't hold his unimpressive record against him considering the weak Lynx offense. Certainly look to FAAB Stephens for a couple bucks if you need a starter since he still possesses as much fantasy upside as any pitcher in the system.

Previously discussed 2003 AL pitching prospects: May: Hector Carrasco; June: Eric DuBose.

Boston: Dicky Gonzalez, 24, RH Starter
5-6 on a 64:15 K:BB in 93.2 IP over 15 GS(17G)
with 110 H, 6 HR, and a 3.94 ERA at AAA Pawtucket(IL).

Bronson Arroyo deserves a promotion before Boston considers dealing for a starter, yet aside from a lower strikeout rate, Gonzalez is pitching nearly as well. His fantastic control and excellent .6 HR/9 indicate he could pitch effectively in the majors right now, and only the superior upside of most pitchers already on the Red Sox keeps Gonzalez in the minors. Try to FAAB Gonzalez for a couple bucks upon any call-up, since while I don't know if he can hold a job in Boston, he owns the skills necessary to succeed if given the necessary opportunity.

Previously discussed 2003 AL pitching prospects: May: Ryan Rupe; June: Bronson Arroyo.

Chicago White Sox: Jon Rauch, 24, RH Starter
4-1 on a 55:18 K:BB in 74 IP over 14 GS
with 68 H, 12 HR, and a 4.26 ERA at AAA Charlotte(IL).

I'd like to see a higher strikeout rate, but I don't anticipate any major problems here given his 6.7 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, or 8.2 H/9. Only Rauch's 1.5 HR/9 concerns me, however he still possesses tremendous upside and could emerge as one of baseball's dominant starters at any time. While he shouldn't receive a look this year barring injury, Rauch should win a rotation spot next spring, so take advantage of any opportunity to FAAB him now for a couple of bucks.

Previously discussed 2003 AL pitching prospects: May: Matt Ginter; June: Mike Porzio.

Cleveland: Cliff Lee, 24, LH Starter
1-0 on a 5:3 K:BB in 6 IP over 1 GS
with 3 H, 0 HR, and a 7-5 G-F; 0.00 ERA.
4-0 on a 40:19 K:BB in 40 IP over 7 GS
with 28 H, 3 HR, and a 1.80 ERA between A+ Kinston(Car),
AA Akron(EL) and AAA Buffalo(IL).

Lee is old enough where we shouldn't worry too much about injuries in the near future as long as Cleveland doesn't abuse him, especially since these stats strongly suggest he's recovered from his strained oblique and hernia. I harbor slight concerns about his walk rate, however his dominance indicates he's ready for the promotion everyone expects him to receive after the All-Star game. Even rebuilding owners should try to FAAB Lee up to around $10, and he potentially might reach that value this season if the Indians' offense improves.

Previously discussed 2003 AL pitching prospects: May: Jason Stanford; June: Lance Caracioli.

Detroit: Shane Loux, 23, RH Starter
8-6 on a 45:27 K:BB in 105 IP over 17 GS(18G)
with 108 H, 5 HR, and a 3.17 ERA at AAA Toledo(IL).

Nate Robertson also merits call-up consideration once the Tigers tire of starting Rule 5 picks, but Loux's record and ERA makes him the most likely candidate for promotion when Detroit adds an established starting prospect. I don't favor him moving to the majors due to his 3.9 K/9, however all of Loux's other skills seem quite solid, and he succeeded in the past with a strikeout rate around 5.0 K/9. You likely should ignore Loux in most leagues, however you at least should keep an eye on him since he could emerge as a decent value if he maintains similar skills with the Tigers.

Previously discussed 2003 AL pitching prospects: May: Fernando Rodney; June: Tyler Walker.

Kansas City: Les Walrond, 26, LH Reliever
0-2 on a 6:7 K:BB in 8 IP over 7 G
with 11 H, 2 HR, and a 10.13 ERA in Kansas City.
1-0 and 2 Saves on a 28:12 K:BB in 32.2 IP over 19 G(1GS)
with 20 H, 1 HR, and a 1.10 ERA between AA Tennessee(SL),
AAA Memphis(PCL), and AAA Omaha(PCL).

Snagging Walrond off waivers from St. Louis ranks as one of the best pick-ups of free talent this season. His minor league numbers indicate he could pitch decently as a starter or potentially dominate in the bullpen, and while his Royals' debut didn't go smoothly, I expect him to return to the majors within the next few weeks. Unfortunately I don't like the idea of owning a rookie left-handed reliever in the best AL hitters' park, so although I like his long-term upside a lot, ignore any further call-ups of Walrond in 2003.

Previously discussed 2003 AL pitching prospects: May: Jason Gilfillan; June: Ryan Baerlocher.

Minnesota: Jeromy Palki, 27, RH Reliever
4-3 and 1 Save on a 59:16 K:BB in 59.1 IP over 33 G(3GS)
with 59 H, 5 HR, and a 3.94 ERA at AAA Rochester(IL).

Seattle included Palki as the PTBNL in the Joe Mays trade in 1997. He signed with the Cubs as a free agent in the fall of 2001, and then Minnesota grabbed him back in the minor league rule 5 draft a month later. Palki split 2002 between AA New Britain and AAA Edmonton as he compiled a 100:33 K:BB in 91 IP out of the pen. I like him even better now that he's dominating the International League to this extent, and like Nakamura and Balfour, I expect him to compete for the likely vacancy at closer for the Twins next spring. Feel free to spend a couple bucks of FAAB on Palki once he reaches the majors since he at least appears capable of boosting your qualitative stats.

Previously discussed 2003 AL pitching prospects: May: Michael Nakamura; June: Grant Balfour.

New York Yankees: Colter Bean, 26, RH Reliever
2-1 and 3 Saves on a 53:19 K:BB in 49.1 IP over 35 G
with 30 H, 2 HR, and a 2.55 ERA between AA Trenton(EL) and AAA Columbus(IL).

No Yankee starting prospect other than Claussen looks ready for the majors, so hopefully Bean's impressive stats will earn him a call-up later this year. Signed as a non-drafted free agent out of Auburn in 2000, Bean dominated at A+ Tampa(FSL) over the last two seasons, compiling 11 Saves and a 1.73 ERA on a 155:40 K:BB in 104 IP of relief work. He struggled during two brief AA outings, however posting a 9:2 K:BB in 4.2 IP over 3 games this year earned him a promotion to AAA, and now he ranks as the most prepared relief prospect for the majors in the organization. A minimum FAAB bid on Bean might snag you a middle reliever capable of approaching double-digit value next season.

Previously discussed 2003 AL pitching prospects: May: Adrian Hernandez; June: Brandon Claussen.

Oakland: Rich Harden, 21, RH Starter
11-4 on a 108:35 K:BB in 101.2 IP over 16 GS(18G)
with 72 H, 6 HR, and a 2.74 ERA between AA Midland(TL) and AAA Sacramenton(PCL).

I've avoided discussing Harden for the first half of the season due to the A's stated desire to give him a full year in the minors, however Oakland likely will promote Harden over Duchscherer the first time they need a 5th starter after the break. Harden will debut with even more renown as Hudson, Mulder, and Zito after he pitched 13 perfect innings at AA this year before similarly dominating the Pacific Coast League. You should seek to FAAB him in every single league where he's available as he should coast to double-digit value over the last ten weeks of the season, and even a $15 salary shouldn't preclude keeping him in most standard league in 2004.

Previously discussed 2003 AL pitching prospects: May: Justin Duchscherer; June: Erik Hiljus.

Seattle: Rett Johnson, 24, RH Starter
10-3 on an 89:30 K:BB in 116.2 IP over 19 GS
with 97 H, 7 HR, and a 2.31 ERA between AA San Antonio(TL) and AAA Tacoma(PCL).

Rafael Soriano should assume any extra starts for the Mariners and Aaron Looper merits a promotion almost as much as Aaron Taylor, however Johnson deserves the most attention right now. He compiled a 392:148 K:BB in 389 IP over the past three seasons after the Mariners selected him in the 8th round in 2000. While he registered a respectable 63:21 K:BB in 83 IP at San Antonio this year, his 4-1 record and .53 ERA on a 26:9 K:BB in 33.2 IP makes him one of the more intriguing starting prospects in baseball. If Seattle actually tries to upgrade over the next few weeks, expect Johnson's inclusion in any major trade, and assuming his new team immediately inserts him into the rotation, try to FAAB him for a few dollars.

Previously discussed 2003 AL pitching prospects: May: Rafael Soriano; June: Aaron Taylor.

Tampa Bay: Lee Gardner, 28, RH Reliever
0-6 and 20 Saves on a 38:11 K:BB in 41 IP over 38 G
with 50 H, 8 HR, and a 5.05 ERA at AAA Durham(IL).

We're fairly certain that the Rays based their methodology for promoting pitchers on an eminently logical system such as astrological charts because we can't identify any relevant governing principles in their attempts to develop pitching prospects. Of course they also lack many pitchers who belong above AA, and after two years of posting solid skills while closing for Durham, Gardner deserves a couple months in Tampa. As he doesn't historically suffer from homer problems, Gardner should succeed with better defensive support, so while I don't envision him as a long-term contributor in the Rays' pen, he shouldn't hurt you for a buck of FAAB.

Previously discussed 2003 AL pitching prospects: May: Jeremi Gonzalez; June: Talley Haines.

Texas: Reynaldo Garcia, 29, RH Reliever
0-0 on a 9:8 K:BB in 10.1 IP over 8 G
with 13 H, 4 HR, and a 12-13 G-F; 10.45 ERA in Texas.
3-2 and 3 Saves on a 44:15 K:BB in 40 IP over 20 G(3GS)
with 49 H, 2 HR, and a 4.05 ERA at AAA Oklahoma(PCL).

We're not convinced that Francisco Cordero will hold off Jeff Zimmerman for the closer's job after Texas trades Urbina, and both Reynaldo and Rosman Garcia also seem likely to compete for save opportunities. While Reynaldo remains in the minors right now thanks to some flyball problems earlier in the year, he possesses a promising track record and his stats at Oklahoma suggests he's capable of succeeding in a short relief role in the majors. If you either can reserve him or don't mind potential qualitative damage, look to FAAB Garcia once the Rangers recall him in the next couple weeks since he easily could find himself in a significant bullpen role by next spring.

Previously discussed 2003 AL pitching prospects: May: Victor Santos; June: Tony Mounce.

Toronto: Jason Arnold, 24, RH Starter
6-5 on an 87:36 K:BB in 105 IP over 18 GS
with 92 H, 10 HR, and a 3.43 ERA between AA New Haven(EL) and AAA Syracuse(IL).

If the Blue Jays' recent slide leads them to trade Cory Lidle or Kelvim Escobar, Arnold should debut as their new starter. He dominated during 6 starts at New Haven, compiling a 33:11 K:BB in 35.1 IP while allowing only 18 H and 2 homers, and although his 54:25 K:BB in 69.2 IP isn't overly impressive, I see nothing that indicates he needs more seasoning. Unfortunately I suspect the downside of pitching in front of the Jays' defense in the Skydome will keep his ERA around 5.00 this season, however anyone even partially looking towards 2004 should look to FAAB Arnold for several bucks since I expect him to develop into a solid #2 starter for Toronto next year.

Previously discussed 2003 AL pitching prospects: May: Josh Towers; June: Corey Thurman.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Unless you see a top prospect promoted who fills an immediate need for your team, you should ration your FAAB over the next few weeks since grabbing a top player from the other league usually will benefit your team to a far greater extent than almost any other use of FAAB.