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July
7th
2003
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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2003 Hitting: July AL Roto Prospects
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

I'm going to spend a few days looking at potential fantasy help currently residing in the upper levels of the minors, one hitter and one pitcher, so you can know who to monitor for potential FAABing. Since most teams will still promote talent from AAA if given the chance, I'll only select a AA prospect if a AAA club lacks any promotion-worthy candidates.

We begin today with American League batting prospects.


Note: For those of you unfamiliar with FAAB, each team normally begins with $100 to spend throughout the year on all free agent pickups. Most injury replacements or speculative picks go for a buck or two, hot starters go for $5-$10, top prospects go in the $10-$30 range, and we've seen $90+ bids on top players traded into the league.

Anaheim: Trent Durrington, 27, UT
98/309 for .317/.394/.453 with 6 HR, 37 RBI, 60 R, 8/11 SB%,
and a 38:45 BB:K at AAA Salt Lake(PCL).

Although we've seen rumors indicating that Robb Quinlan could return to the majors in the near future, his stats pail in comparison to Durrington's numbers and position flexibility. Durrington's played 33 of his 81 games at second base, but he's seen 18 games at 3B, 12 at 1B, 8 in the outfield, and two behind the plate, yet his error total remains a very respectable 7 on the season. The Australian utilityman owns an impressive .359 lifetime OBP in the minors, and his combination of plate discipline, speed, and flexibility should merit a call-up in the near future. However, even though Durrington only turns 28 in August, I don't envision him starting for extended stretches in the majors, so even if the Angels decide to employ him in Anaheim later in the year, ignore Durrington in 2003.

Previously discussed 2003 AL hitting prospects: May: Alfredo Amezaga; June: Chone Figgins.


Baltimore: Robert Machado, 30, C
60/186 for .323/.379/.505 with 6 HR, 32 RBI, 25 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 14:33 BB:K at AAA Ottawa(PCL).

Machado doesn't own much plate discipline, however I see enough upside in these skills to believe that he might contribute to some fantasy teams if Baltimore promotes him later this year. You certainly shouldn't expect Machado to earn more than a buck or two, but if the Orioles need a catcher after potentially dealing Gil or Fordyce, Machado will perform adequately in a back-up role. Of course, only FAAB him at a buck if you're desperate for any quantitative production from catcher since you risk a BA drain any time you roster someone with Machado's questionable skills and unimpressive statistical history.

Previously discussed 2003 AL hitting prospects: May: Brian Roberts; June: Jack Cust.


Boston: Chad Mottola, 31, OF
78/285 for .274/.334/.425 with 9 HR, 46 RBI, 35 R, 6/10 SB%,
and a 25:47 BB:K between AAA Durham(IL) and AAA Pawtucket(IL).

We see few possibilities for pending call-ups here other than Collier given Boston's offensive depth right now. The Red Sox's infield looks exceptionally loaded, however a couple AAA outfielders like Adrian Brown and Anton French could see some time in the majors if Boston decides to add another speedy outfielder with good defense to their bench. However, given the team's overall moves this year, recalling Mottola seems a more likely alternative. Tampa released Mottola a month ago after he posted a .258/.319/.385 in 213 at-bats for AAA Durham(IL), and Boston quickly signed him to Pawtucket, where he owns a .319/.380/.542 line in 72 at-bats. While you likely should ignore Mottola since I don't expect him to see much major league time this season, he also could post decent numbers in a limited role.

Previously discussed 2003 AL hitting prospects: May: Freddy Sanchez; June: Lou Collier.


Chicago White Sox: Ross Gload, 27, 1B/OF
99/291 for .340/.377/.564 with 9 HR, 43 RBI, 40 R, 5/5 SB%,
and a 20:31 BB:K at AAA Charlotte(IL).

Gload ranks first in the International League in doubles and extra-base hits, second in BA and SLG, and third in hits. While Chicago doesn't need another bat right now after acquiring Carl Everett and Roberto Alomar, Gload looks prepared to emerge as an impressive force in the near future. If the White Sox don't deal him soon, they'll lose him at the end of the year to a team like Boston or Toronto, someplace Gload could flourish thanks to his decent plate discipline and consistently solid power output. Feel free to FAAB him if someone gives him a chance now, although he'll need a lucky break to find that opportunity.

Previously discussed 2003 AL hitting prospects: May: Cliff Brumbaugh; June: Aaron Miles.


Cleveland: Greg LaRocca, 30, 3B/2B
103/323 for .319/.368/.458 with 6 HR, 46 RBI, 44 R, 4/6 SB%,
and a 25:31 BB:K at AAA Buffalo(IL).

I expected LaRocca to compete for a starting job this spring as he owns a .370 career minor league OBP and can handle a couple infield positions, but Cleveland even has bypassed him for promotion in favor of guys like Johnny Peralta who obviously require more development time. Now I admit that committing 15 errors in 82 games isn't an endearing statistic, however plenty of people earn call-ups with far worse defensive marks. LaRocca deserves the Indians' 2B job far more than Brandon Phillips right now, and if the organization realizes that face any time soon, LaRocca should emerge as intriguing FAAB pick-up for any team desiring an offensive boost in the second half.

Previously discussed 2003 AL hitting prospects: May: Coco Crisp; June: Travis Hafner.


Detroit: Ernie Young, 36, OF/DH
2/11 for .182/.400/.182 with 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 R, 0/2 SB%,
and a 4:5 BB:K in Detroit.
80/274 for .292/.363/.489 with 13 HR, 52 RBI, 37 R, 7/12 SB%,
and a 29:73 BB:K at AAA Toledo(IL).

Young leads the Mud Hens in most offensive categories, yet Detroit promoted Cody Ross, who owns a pedestrian .258/.295/.447 at Toledo, when they needed a replacement for the injured Bobby Higginson last week. Now we realize that Young will not belong on the next contending Tigers' squad, however he could contribute now if given regular at-bats in the majors. Unfortunately Ross' promotion suggests the organization doesn't view Young as more than a AAAA player, so ignore him if he returns to the big leagues later this season.

Previously discussed 2003 AL hitting prospects: May: Kevin Witt; June: Andres Torres.


Kansas City: Mike Kelly, 33, OF-R
72/229 for .314/.404/.533 with 10 HR, 51 RBI, 39 R, 2/3 SB%,
and a 33:49 BB:K at AAA Omaha(PCL).

The Royals field a decent group of corner outfielders with Michael Tucker, Raul Ibanez, and Aaron Guiel each holding an OPS in the .800+ range, however the only overly impressive bats on the team belong to Mike Sweeney and Carlos Beltran. Kelly belongs in Kansas City after crushing AAA for the last couple months, and while he won't maintain a .300 BA in the majors, he looks capable of posting helpful fantasy numbers for the balance of the season. If the Royals give him a chance, definitely try to FAAB him for a couple bucks given his previous potential and current skills.

Previously discussed 2003 AL hitting prospects: May: Brent Abernathy; June: Morgan Burkhart.


Minnesota: Dave Lamb, 28, SS
77/276 for .279/.372/.341 with 1 HR, 23 RBI, 33 R, 2/6 SB%,
and a 37:35 BB:K at AAA Rochester(IL).

Lamb looked ready for an extended look in the majors a year ago by posting a .377 OBP at AAA Edmonton(PCL) for the Twins, and his current numbers are quite similar despite the dramatic shift in ballparks. As Minnesota seems largely tired of the offensive competence of their current starting middle infielders, hopefully we'll see a promotion for Lamb once the team realizes that Justin Morneau needs more seasoning. Consider a low FAAB bid on Lamb after his call-up, since while he'll definitely improve the Twins' offense, he offers little other than a decent BA to fantasy teams.

Previously discussed 2003 AL hitting prospects: May: Luis Rodriguez; June: Justin Morneau.


New York Yankees: Fernando Seguignol, 28, 1B/DH
74/222 for .333/.406/.568 with 14 HR, 1 RBI, 37 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 23:49 BB:K between A+ Tampa(FSL) and AAA Columbus(PCL).

Although his numbers might look even better if he wasn't playing nearly every game at DH, Seguignol still looks ready to return to the majors after a two-season absence. The big problem here is a .78 contact rate, so we can't expect a BA anywhere close to .300 above AAA. He also isn't likely to see any time with the Yankees, although he could be included as roster filler in another deal. You should consider spending a buck of FAAB if he receives an opportunity to start with another team, however don't expect a significant contribution from Seguignol in the near future.

Previously discussed 2003 AL hitting prospects: May: Michel Hernandez; June: Bobby Smith.


Oakland: Bobby Crosby, 23, SS
87/296 for .294/.375/.510 with 14 HR, 47 RBI, 87 H, 12/15 SB%,
and a 38:77 BB:K at AAA Sacramento(PCL).

Sacramento owns an impressive 59-36 record thanks to a team OBP well over .350 and a respectable 3.89 ERA, yet no current RiverCat possesses an OPS above Crosby's .885 mark. His .13 walk rate is a welcome improvement over his .08 mark during a half-season at AA Midland(TL) a year ago, and an 80% SB success rate even suggests he could steal a half-dozen or more bases for the A's. The only glaring problem is a .74 contact rate, but as long as Crosby posts decent on-base and power numbers, Oakland won't care if he experiences BA trouble. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Athletics deal Miguel Tejada in the next few weeks for a superstar outfielder as Crosby's 8 errors in 83 games suggest be belongs in the majors now. Certainly make a significant FAAB bid when he reaches the majors as he even looks keepable in the $10-15 range next season.

Previously discussed 2003 AL hitting prospects: May: Jose Flores; June: Esteban German.


Seattle: Pat Borders, 30, C
70/218 for .321/.366/.564 with 10 HR, 42 RBI, 30 R, 1/2 SB%,
and a 14:41 BB:K at AAA Tacoma(PCL).

Few Rainiers looks prepared to contribute in the majors, yet AAA All-Star Borders remains a quality AAAA player who can contribute for the Mariners as needed. Unfortunately both Ben Davis and Dan Wilson own secure jobs, and Borders hasn't offered much fantasy help since 1997. Ignore any future promotions as he simply lacks the upside for you to risk the BA downside suggested by his current plate discipline.

Previously discussed 2003 AL hitting prospects: May: Chad Meyers; June: Luis Figueroa.


Tampa Bay: Pete LaForest, 25, C
40/142 for .282/.395/.592 with 10 HR, 30 RBI, 24 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 26:37 BB:K between AA Orlando(SL) and AAA Durham(IL).

LaForest only has played in 42 games this year due to a very late arrival in Tampa thanks to visa problems, however he posted a .250/.385/.486 line in 72 AA at-bats before crushing the ball over his last 70 at-bats in Durham for a .314/.407/.700. I don't rank him in the same class with Joe Mauer, however Victor Martinez's promotion makes LaForest the elite catching prospect closest to the majors. LaForest's upside even means Tampa must consider dealing Toby Hall if they can acquire a top young infielder. Certainly try to FAAB LaForest after his call-up to the Devil Rays later this season since he at least should earn a few bucks in a similar role to Brian Schneider.

Previously discussed 2003 AL hitting prospects: May: Antonio Perez; June: Jason Smith.


Texas: Jason Hart, 25, 1B/OF
138/329 for .252/.340/.419 with 14 HR, 51 RBI, 41 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 42:69 BB:K at AAA Oklahoma(PCL).

Both Laynce Nix and Ramon Nivar seem to need a couple months of AAA time, so the next Rangers' trade should open a spot for Marcus Thames, Jason Jones, or Hart, who looks like the probable call-up due to his consistent play at AAA over the last three years. Unfortunately, even though his 14 homers are double any of his fellow Redhawks' total, he lacks both the tools and hitting skills to contribute in Texas right now. A .419 SLG simply isn't impressive in the Pacific Coast League, and I don't see him earning much playing time for a team very close to installing their lineup of the future: Nivar, Blalock, ARod, Teixeira, Mench, Nix, Ludwick, Laird, and Mike Young. Ignore Hart since he even appears behind lower-level prospects like Patrick Boyd and Drew Meyer in the Rangers' plans.

Previously discussed 2003 AL hitting prospects: May: Jeff Pickler; June: Ryan Ludwick.


Toronto: Kevin Cash, 25, C
65/246 for .264/.313/.402 with 2 HR, 23 RBI, 23 R, 1/1 SB%,
and an 18:58 BB:K at AAA Syracuse(IL).

The performance of Greg Myers and Tom Wilson this year has turned Cash into trade bait as AA stud Guillermo Quiroz now looks like the catcher of the future. Cash remains a decent prospect likely to provide good defense for some team over the next few seasons, but the Jays' offensive focus makes him expendable considering the other talent in the organization. Ignore Cash until he moves to a catching-desperate team prepared to install him behind the plate regardless of his demonstrated plate discipline.

Previously discussed 2003 AL hitting prospects: May: Reed Johnson; June: Tony Zuniga.


Today's Fantasy Rx: We'll cover our experiences in New York later in the week, however for now I'm recommending that if your rental car company ever offers you a free upgrade to an SUV, even if you'd prefer a smaller car, take advantage of the opportunity to drive a gas-guzzling tank at least once.


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Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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