Today's Fantasy Rx

I'm going to spend a few days looking at potential fantasy help currently residing in the upper levels of the minors, one hitter and one pitcher, so you can know who to monitor for potential FAABing. Since most teams will still promote talent from AAA if given the chance, I'll only select a AA prospect if a AAA club lacks any promotion-worthy candidates.

We begin today with American League batting prospects.

Note: For those of you unfamiliar with FAAB, each team normally begins with $100 to spend throughout the year on all free agent pickups. Most injury replacements or speculative picks go for a buck or two, hot starters go for $5-$10, top prospects go in the $10-$30 range, and we've seen $90+ bids on top players traded into the league.

Anaheim: Chone Figgins, 25, 2B/SS-S
13/41 for .317/.356/.366 with 0 HR, 3 RBI, 9 R, 3/4 SB%,
and a 3:5 BB:K in Anaheim.
48/145 for .331/.411/.559 with 2 HR, 22 RBI, 33 R, 14/17 SB%,
and a 19:22 BB:K at AAA Salt Lake(PCL).

The injuries to Kennedy and Erstad opened up nearly a month of potential playing time for Figgins, and he acquitted himself nicely given his limited opportunities thanks to the recent play of Jeff DaVanon. Unfortunately Figgins' defense isn't on the same level as that of Alfredo Amezaga as Amezaga both owns better range in the infield and plays both middle infield positions more consistently. However Figgins owns great speed and historically solid plate discipline, and I see a place for both players on future Angels' roster. Figgins returned to Salt Lake a couple days ago to open a roster spot for Erstad, and Anaheim should recall him if they suffer any more injuries, making him a better play to FAAB upon his next promotion than almost anyone else from the Angels' minors. We can count on a couple steals and a decent BA from Figgins even in limited playing time, and while he won't be useful in many leagues, he's a marginally helpful player to own in deeper AL leagues.

Previously discussed 2003 AL hitting prospects: May: Alfredo Amezaga.

Baltimore: Jack Cust, 24, OF-L
52/189 for .275/.425/.397 with 4 HR, 30 RBI, 33 R, 3/4 SB%,
and a 50:55 BB:K at AAA Ottawa(IL).

A smart team should let him adjust to big league pitching while playing him at DH every day in the majors, but the Orioles' continue to believe they should try to win a few games every season instead of developing a potential playoff contender. Although we agree with their desire that Cust increase his aggressiveness at the plate, he still owns natural power, matched by one of the most refined senses of plate discipline in the country. Unfortunately that combination benefits the Orioles far more than any fantasy teams, yet he certainly will merit ownership once he finally exits AAA for good. Teams competing for this season likely should only target Cust if they can leave him benched until he proves he can maintain a reasonable BA, however anyone beginning to look towards 2004 should FAAB Cust and exercise patience as he struggles.

Previously discussed 2003 AL hitting prospects: May: Brian Roberts.

Boston: Lou Collier, 29, OF/SS-R
52/166 for .313/.378/.536 with 7 HR, 39 RBI, 26 R, 6/11 SB%,
and a 15:38 BB:K at AAA Pawtucket(IL).

The promotion of Freddy Sanchez and departure of Julio Zuleta to Japan leaves Pawtucket rather bereft of AAAA hitting talent, and Kevin Youkilis' .358 SLG suggests he needs more AA time. With only 4 errors in 45 games, Collier is next in line for a call-up, and if Boston decides Sanchez needs to play every day, we could see Collier promoted in the near future. While he isn't a particularly disciplined hitter, I like his power development and maintenance of nearly a .10 walk rate. You likely should ignore Collier for fantasy purposes, however he possesses enough skills for me to believe he now could succeed as a utilityman in the majors.

Previously discussed 2003 AL hitting prospects: May: Freddy Sanchez.

Chicago White Sox: Aaron Miles, 26, 2B-S
61/212 for .316/.350/.509 with 8 HR, 20 RBI, 32 R, 0/6 SB%,
and a 10:23 BB:K at AAA Charlotte(IL).

Charlotte lacks any impressive hitters and only hangs around .500 thanks to a rotation that includes Jon Rauch, Mike Porzio, and Brian Cooper. The White Sox reportedly believe Miles will emerge as a starting second baseman at some point as he's received considerable press supporting that theory. However I'm not impressed with his response to his first exposure to AAA, and as he's showing few speed skills, I don't envision him contributing in the majors any time soon. Great defense and a largely empty BA might earn him a promotion at some point, but you only shouldn't ignore Miles this year unless Jimenez and Graffanino hit the DL for extended stays.

Previously discussed 2003 AL hitting prospects: May: Cliff Brumbaugh.

Cleveland: Travis Hafner, 26, 1B-L
20/97 for .206/.280/.392 with 4 HR, 11 RBI, 8 R, 1/1 SB%,
and an 11:26 BB:K in Cleveland.
11/47 for .234/.419/.298 with 0 HR, 0 RBI, 6 R, 0/1 SB%,
and a 15:14 BB:K at AAA Buffalo(IL).

A potentially serious problem with Ellis Burks' arm soon may open up the DH spot in the majors, yet we don't expect Hafner to the return to the majors until near the All-Star break. He missed most of may with a broken left big toe, and then he sprained his left wrist a week ago, so he may not return to the lineup for another week. We expect Burks to depart Cleveland within two months under any circumstances, and if Hafner isn't promoted soon, try to pry him from his current owner. Hafner's minor league credentials are impeccable for a disciplined power hitter, and while his contact rate is somewhat weak at both levels this season, he's displaying the necessary walk rate for us to continue believing in his long-term upside. You certainly should FAAB him in most leagues once he returns to the Indians, and anyone in keeper leagues should attempt to grab this potential gem while his value remains low.

Previously discussed 2003 AL hitting prospects: May: Coco Crisp.

Detroit: Andres Torres, 25, OF-S
19/85 for .224/.267/.294 with 0 HR, 3 RBI, 9 R, 2/4 SB%,
and a 5:16 BB:K in Detroit.
40/130 for .308/.366/.415 with 1 HR, 8 RBI, 21 R, 19/25 SB%,
and a 12:32 BB:K at AAA Toledo(IL).

Although Alex Sanchez has stolen 10 bases in 10 games since joining the Tigers, his abominable .271 OBP means even someone like Eric Munson is currently a better candidate to lead off. Unfortunately Sanchez neither impressed with his speed nor his hitting ability in his brief big league trial this season, and he'll need to cut his strikeouts if he wants to emerge as a capable leadoff man for Detroit. He merits FAAB consideration upon his next promotion because of his SB upside, however we no longer can expect him to accumulate more than a couple bucks of fantasy value in 2003.

Previously discussed 2003 AL hitting prospects: May: Kevin Witt.

Kansas City: Morgan Burkhart, 31, 1B-S
64/240 for .267/.368/.450 with 11 HR, 34 RBI, 38 R, 1/1 SB%,
and a 29:45 BB:K at AAA Omaha(PCL).

Burkhart's respectable batting average and impressive power production covers his .81 contact rate and a .838 OPS limited by his surprisingly few doubles; half of Burkhart's extra-base hits this year are home runs. However the deserved promotion of Aaron Guiel leaves Burkhart competing with Jarrod Patterson, Brandon Berger, and Benny Agbayani for the next big league opening, and I see Burkhart with a slight advantage right now thanks to a better BA and OBP than Patterson. Of course these skills still don't suggest he'll succeed with the Royals, so you should ignore Burkhart since the organization's desire to justify their extended investments in Ken Harvey and Dee Brown will limit opportunities for most minor league veterans.

Previously discussed 2003 AL hitting prospects: May: Brent Abernathy.

Minnesota: Justin Morneau, 22, 1B-L
67/217 for .309/.380/.622 with 19 HR, 42 RBI, 38 R, 0/2 SB%,
and a 22:43 BB:K between AA New Britain(EL) and AAA Rochester(IL).

The Twins look likely to promote Morneau today as they return to the Metrodome for another week of interleague play, and I don't expect him to sit too often while in the majors. Morneau will take over for Mientkiewicz at first within the next season, so even if he struggles right now thanks to a questionable .79 contact rate at AAA, he's still the Twins' future at first base. However anyone aside from owners in shallow mixed leagues still should FAAB Morneau immediately as he could emerge as a starter immediately thanks to the team's general lack of power.

Previously discussed 2003 AL hitting prospects: May: Luis Rodriguez.

New York Yankees: Bobby Smith, 29, IF-R
58/194 for .297/.344/.441 with 3 HR, 37 RBI, 26 R, 3/6 SB%,
and a 14:34 BB:K at AAA Columbus(IL).

New York's last two roster spots for position players look quite valuable right now thanks to the poor play of Charles Gipson and Enrique Wilson. Smith's combination of offensive upside and defensive flexibility make him the only logical replacement candidate at Columbus. Of course a .82 contact rate suggests Smith hasn't solved the contact issues that led to his departure from Tampa Bay, and his power potential obviously hasn't translated to many homers this year. I doubt he'll find any success hitting to Yankee Stadium's Death Valley, so ignore any promotion of Smith by New York.

Previously discussed 2003 AL hitting prospects: May: Michel Hernandez.

Oakland: Esteban German, 25, 2B-R
50/162 for .309/.408/.420 with 2 HR, 17 RBI, 40 R, 8/10 SB%,
and a 28:19 BB:K at AAA Sacramento(PCL).

I'm convinced Billy Beane's stubbornness is the only reason German continues to stagnate at Sacramento since he clearly merits an extended look in the majors. While his steals are a little low this year and he hasn't demonstrated any power development, German's plate discipline and consistent on-base skills suggest he'll succeed upon his next promotion. Immediately FAAB German upon his call-up in any AL league since he should contribute a few bucks of value even if Oakland doesn't give him many green lights on the bases.

Previously discussed 2003 AL hitting prospects: May: Jose Flores.

Seattle: Luis Figueroa, 26, 3B-R
64/198 for .323/.389/.389 with 1 HR, 24 RBI, 18 R, 1/3 SB%,
and a 21:14 BB:K at AAA Tacoma(PCL).

We can't really fault the Mariners for their major league roster construction given their excellent record and consistently productive starting lineup. While a few bench players aren't meeting expectations, they've also received much more erratic playing time than anticipated. However Figueroa deserves an opportunity in the majors regardless of Seattle's success or his 13 errors in 57 games at third. He possesses promising plate discipline and experience around the infield, and his excellent .93 contact rate indicates he at least would put the ball in play more than most pinch-hitters. Most fantasy owners likely should ignore his eventual performance, but Figueroa owns the skills necessary for an extended big league career.

Previously discussed 2003 AL hitting prospects: May: Chad Meyers.

Tampa Bay: Jason Smith, 25, 3B-L
73/225 for .324/.332/.556 with 10 HR, 42 RBI, 34 R, 8/14 SB%,
and a 3:48 BB:K at AAA Durham(IL).

I began to lose track of the difference between the rosters of the Devil Rays and Bulls about a month ago, and after 10 weeks of the season, only 14 Devil Rays have spent all year in the majors while Smith's recent promotion leaves only another 13 full-time Bulls. While the addition of Jeff Liefer pushed Smith back to Durham, he remains on the 40-man roster and could return to the majors at any time. His offensive performance is somewhat poor compared to George Lombard's .331/.413/.544, but Tampa doesn't need outfielders and can't seem to find any productive infielders Of course a quick glance at Smith's abhorrent plate discipline shows us his fundamental weakness, and as he also committed 12 errors in 5 games at third, I see no choice but to ignore any recall.

Previously discussed 2003 AL hitting prospects: May: Antonio Perez.

Texas: Ryan Ludwick, 24, OF-R
72/235 for .306/.377/.587 with 14 HR, 50 RBI, 40 R, 1/2 SB%,
and a 24:52 BB:K at AAA Oklahoma(PCL).

Dealing Ruben Sierra for Marcus Thames opened a roster spot for Kevin Mench, and a likely trade of Gonzalez and/or Everett should give Ludwick, currently second in the PCL in HR and third in RBI, a starting job in Texas. Although lingering effects from a hip injury may prevent him from playing center, he still possesses the range to excel in either corner. Ludwick's one problem is an historically poor contact rate, however I doubt the Rangers will object as long as he maintains this level of power production in the majors. Rebuilding teams and anyone needing power should FAAB him upon any promotion, and while Texas could keep or add expensive outfield talent, the upside of Mench and Ludwick at least should convince them to give both players long looks.

Previously discussed 2003 AL hitting prospects: May: Jeff Pickler.

Toronto: Tony Zuniga, 28, 3B-R
59/201 for .294/.370/.532 with 11 HR, 34 RBI, 29 R, 0/2 SB%,
and a 24:34 BB:K at AAA Syracuse(IL).

Despite these outstanding numbers, we see no evidence that Toronto will promote Zuniga any time soon with Woodward, Bordick, Berg, and Clark manning the left side of the infield and Hinske due back in a couple weeks. However we've seen the Blue Jays advance several similar players over the last two seasons, and he'll earn a bench spot if he maintains his level of production. While you should only offer a buck or two of FAAB upon Zuniga's call-up, you might snag a few bucks of value for your minimal investment.

Previously discussed 2003 AL hitting prospects: May: Reed Johnson.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Based on recent activity in our leagues, dumping season appears to be in full swing. As a contender, you should consider shopping one or two of your best keepers in addition to secondary keepers and long-term minor league prospects, especially since many owners aren't avid minor league followers and will focus on Baseball America's pre-season Top 100 prospect list. However if you need to rebuild thanks to bad luck and injuries, first focus on top keepers already in majors, and then key on the best AAA prospects. Only a couple AA prospects like Miguel Cabrera and Jeremy Brown merit your attention, and even if you have the chance to deal for Joe Mauer or Andy Marte, never center any package acquired for solid current major league talent on a player more than a season away from the majors.