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June
6th
2003
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
Rotohelp
AL LPR through 10 Weeks
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Please check here for a complete description of these rankings. We've included the five most recent 2003 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through June 4th.


123
ABCYZ - Pedro Martinez(33445)
abcxyz - Arthur Rhodes(3534455545)

A dominant week by Arthur Rhodes finally moves him up where he belongs as the most consistently effective middle reliever in the American League.


12
None.


13
None, as both Clemens and Mussina fall to only a 3.


23
ABCXYZ - Roy Halladay(55454)
ACY - Mark Mulder(54430)

abcxyz - Mariano Rivera(5554424335)
bcyz - Buddy Groom(3043322410)

Struggles from Mulder and Groom leave this ranking looking somewhat unimpressive, however both Halladay and Rivera are dealing right now.


1
ABX - Sir Sidney Ponson(53353)
AX - Esteban Loiaza(52435)

axy - Scot Shields(3542404455)
ac - Aaron Fultz(4430434233)
Travis Harper(4333433334)


2
Abcyz - Byung-Hyun Kim(25234)

abcxyz - Keith Foulke(4453324354)
abcxy - Chad Bradford(5335535444)
abxy - LaTroy Hawkins(5443442444)
abxy - Francisco Cordero(5335445442)
bcyz - Ricardo Rincon(0535343515)
abx - Damaso Marte(3455243433)
bcy - Alan Embree(4423445341)


3
ABCXZ - Roger Clemens(42324)
ABCYZ - Tim Hudson(44302)
AX - Mike Mussina(04333)
C - Kevin Appier(24044)
C - John Burkett(41330)
Joel Pineiro(42535)
Freddy Garcia(04243)

None of these starters looks particularly strong right now, however several of them might be available at discounts if you need to add a starting pitcher in trade. Mussina and Pineiro probably are the best gambles from this group.

bcyz - Steve Karsay
bcyz - Bob Wickman
by - Cliff Politte(3443143343)
cz - Ramiro Mendoza(0442424120)


A
X - Jamie Moyer(23445)
Adam Bernero(50444)
Gil Meche(34522)
Joaquin Benoit(50401)

Poor outings from Kyle Lohse and Jason Johnson drop them off the list, however Moyer looks stronger every week and Adam Bernero continues impressing.


B
XYZ - Tim Wakefield(34440)
Ycz - Derek Lowe(03433)
Y - Mark Buehrle(20343)
Y - Jeff Weaver(22213)
Z - Andy Pettitte(23055)
Casey Fossum(24521)
Bartolo Colon(24343)
Rodrigo Lopez(03130)

ax - Mickey Callaway(2445314533)


C
Z - Chan Ho Park(03330)
Z - Jon Lieber
ab - Kelvim Escobar(0404 as a starter)
Cory Lidle(33453)
John Thomson(24233)
Jake Westbrook(425 in relief)

Z - Brandon Lyon(5425154253)
Rick Bauer(3532323553)


X
Y - David Wells(43233)


Y
cz - Victor Zambrano(433232 in relief)


Z
Barry Zito(34342)
Jon Garland(34350)


a
bcxyz - Kazuhiro Sasaki(4455533454)
bcxyz - Tom Gordon(4553344442)
bcxyz - Jason Grimsley(2344433405)
bcxyz - Troy Percival(43434533442)
bcxz - Jeff Nelson(3243531544)
bcyz - Billy Koch(4344444452)
bcyz - Mike Timlin(3523535444)
bxy - Eddie Guardado(5543434443)

bx - Brendan Donnelly(3442553335)
cx - David Riske(4554534442)
xy - Jorge Julio(4332235544)
xz - Shigetoshi Hasegawa(4555345244)
xz - Mike Venafro(5332444324)
b - Juan Acevedo(1443302333)
x - Danys Baez(4443452555)
x - Mike MacDougal(3344444434)
x - Aquilino Lopez(2433544335)
x - B.J. Ryan(3003544340)
Chris Spurling(4545434444)
Franklyn German(2325353054)
Mike Neu(4442245243)

Even though Spurling appears settling into a setup role while Franklyn German closes, he's demonstrating rather exceptional talent right now. Aquilino Lopez also continues to pitch more effectively every week.


b
y - Omar Daal(04244)
y - Brian Anderson(04143)
y - Mark Hendrickson(43330)
y - Jeremy Affeldt(32243)

cyz - Ugueth Urbina(1443454312)
cyz - Rick White(4122020544)
cz - Jim Mecir(234554352)
yz - Ben Weber(4433143324)
yz - Gary Glover(2132233104)
yz - Mike Fetters(43344)
c - Kelly Wunsch(5444430303)
x - Brian Shouse(4533243344)
y - J.C. Romero(4344414140)
y - Chris Hammond(3523434254)
y - Albie Lopez(4422021212)
Scott Schoeneweis(5505543422)
Julio Mateo(3344214303)
Travis Driskill(223013)


c
yz - Jeff Tam(5523433513)
z - Dan Miceli(3333543455)
z - Al Levine(3353253443)
z - Kris Wilson(2342332435)
z - Willis Roberts(0330503434)
z - Rudy Seanez(332)
z - Chad Fox(2413455332)
z - Danny Patterson
z - Jeff Zimmerman
Tanyon Sturtze(432423445)
Giovanni Carrara(4303422324)


x
Jason Boyd(4153243534)
R.A. Dickey(3423555332)
Francisco Rodriguez(4313135533)

Boyd shockingly joins the list as Hasegawa moves up and Jesus Colome drops thanks to one poor outing.


y
Johan Santana(3133224353)
Dave Elder(4401)


z
Sean Lowe(24424533)
Jay Powell(2422422233)
Mark Wohlers


AL starters I recommend despite their failure to appear above include Jeremy Bonderman(34240), Dewon Brazelton(42243), Nate Cornejo(32343), Jeremi Gonzalez(4334), Jason Johnson(40420), John Lackey(23342), Kyle Lohse(24435), Mike Maroth(42240), Kenny Rogers(33240), C.C. Sabathia(22354), Ismael Valdes(03344), and Jarrod Washburn(43424).

Other decent relievers include D.J. Carrasco, Lance Carter, Jesus Colome, Michael Nakamura, and Robert Person.


We modified these ratings slightly since posting our team-by-team LPR scores in January. By reworking the A-Z and a-z ratings, we now can easily identify effective starters rather than looking for truly dominant performers, of which we only found a few pitchers in any of the previous few seasons.

1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2003.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2002.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2001.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score.

Note: Starters must pitch in five games before scoring DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who both reached 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2001 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2001 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2001 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2001 relief outings


We'll continue tomorrow with this week's NL LPR article.


Today's Fantasy Rx: A few pitchers like Kyle Lohse and Jeremi Gonzalez have compiled very solid numbers in recent weeks, however we've seen surprising success in one AL league by employing most of the Detroit rotation as a third of our pitching staff. Cornejo's posting great numbers thanks to his excellent control, and Bonderman's excelling considering he belongs in AA. Perhaps Gary Knotts is the only weak link here, however he doesn't work worse than any member of Toledo's current rotation.

Of course the truly intriguing Tiger starter is Adam Bernero. After starting out with a 422430 QA log through six starters, Bernero owns a 504444 over his last six appearances as of Thursday night. He obviously lacks consistency, he won't win many games, and career-worst marks like his 5.0 K/9 and 1.16 G-F. Yet over his last six starts he owns a 27:14 K:BB in 35.1 IP with 34 H, 6 HR, and a 44-37 G-F. While these aren't the numbers of an ace, especially with his 5.60 ERA, but I see a lot of upside here. Particularly if you can stash him on your bench, you might net a nice sleeper if you can roster Bernero. Although his solid QA streak could end up as a Quevedo-esque fluke c. 2002, Bernero possessed the skill history and prospect potential to post very solid fantasy numbers.


Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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