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May
23rd
2003
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
Rotohelp
AL LPR through 8 Weeks
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Please check here for a complete description of these rankings. We've included the five most recent 2003 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through May 22nd.


123
ABCYZ - Pedro Martinez(33445)


12
None.


13
ABCXZ - Roger Clemens(34423)
AX - Mike Mussina(45504)


23
ABCXYZ - Roy Halladay(43554)
ACY - Mark Mulder(44454)

bcxyz - Buddy Groom(4543304332)
bcxyz - Arthur Rhodes(5342335344)
bcyz - Mariano Rivera(35554424)


1
A - Esteban Loiaza(52352)
C - Cory Lidle(43233)

abcxyz - Jason Grimsley(3534342344)
ac - Aaron Fultz(0242344304)

Ponson and Harper depart, however Lidle returns and Aaron Fultz finally reach the I minimum, earning a deserved place this high on the list after dominating in a significant majority of his outings.


2
abcxyz - Keith Foulke(5543304453)
abxy - LaTroy Hawkins(0553345443)
abxy - Francisco Cordero(4344533544)
bcxy - Chad Bradford(4433533553)
bcyz - Ricardo Rincon(3530535343)
abx - Damaso Marte(4354534552)
bcy - Alan Embree(3302544534)


3
ABCXYZ - Tim Hudson(44444)
C - John Burkett(21413)
C - Kevin Appier(20240)
Joel Pineiro(43425)
Freddy Garcia(43042)

bcyz - Steve Karsay
bcyz - Bob Wickman
by - Cliff Politte(3543234431)
cz - Ramiro Mendoza(2330442424)


A
ABX - Sir Sidney Ponson(34533)
X - Gil Meche(44345)
X - Jason Johnson(34404)

Although Lohse drops, Ponson, Meche, and Johnson all look particularly strong right now.


B
XYZ - Tim Wakefield(32344)
Ycz - Derek Lowe(03003)
Y - Mark Buehrle(33203)
Y - Jeff Weaver(02221)
Z - Andy Pettitte(50230)
Bartolo Colon(32243)
Casey Fossum(40245)
Rodrigo Lopez(03130)

Mickey Callaway(2445 in relief)


C
Z - Chan Ho Park(03330)
Z - Jon Lieber
ab - Kelvim Escobar(0 as starter)
John Thomson(23024)
Jake Westbrook(22303)

Z - Brandon Lyon(2553542515)
Rick Bauer(3334353232)


X
Y - David Wells(34323)
Z - Barry Zito(23343)

Zito's starting to look stronger, but I wish he possessed the skills of Wells, as well as the offensive support.


Y
None.


Z
Jon Garland(03234)
Ryan Drese(02030)


a
bcxyz - Troy Percival(43434533442)
bcxyz - Kazuhiro Sasaki(2231344555)
bcxz - Jeff Nelson(5533324353)
bcyz - Billy Koch(2441243444)
bxy - Eddie Guardado(4433355434)

Gordon and Timlin both suffered through poor weeks, however Steady Eddie has picked it back up nicely.

bc - Kelly Wunsch(4532354444)
bx - Brendan Donnelly(4434425533)
cx - David Riske(3424455453)
xz - Mike Venafro(4240553324)
b - Juan Acevedo(0314433023)
b - Scott Schoeneweis(2525355055)
x - Danys Baez(4453444345)
x - Mike MacDougal(4325333444)
x - B.J. Ryan(4450430035)
Mike Neu(5444422452)
Travis Harper(4425443334)
Steve Sparks(3442444324)
Franklyn German(4234452325)
Ken Macha finally is employing Neu on a regular basis after Fikac's demotion, but the strength of this list is quite impressive. If you can't score one of the number-ranked relievers above, I don't see anyone here that isn't worth your consideration as roster filler.


b
y - Mark Hendrickson(04433)
y - Omar Daal(22042)
y - Jeremy Affeldt(00322)
y - Brian Anderson(22204)

While Hendrickson isn't meeting our expectations, these QA rankings support our general belief that he will emerge as a solid starter this year.

cxyz - Tom Gordon(5550455334)
cxyz - Ugueth Urbina(2441443454)
cyz - Mike Timlin(4433335235)
cyz - Rick White(3423412202)
cz - Jim Mecir(23455)
xy - J.C. Romero(0354343444)
yz - Ben Weber(5452443314)
yz - Mike Fetters(43344)
yz - Gary Glover(1324521322)

x - Brian Shouse(3404424533)
y - Albie Lopez(4422021212)
y - Chris Hammond(3232335234)
y - Brian Bowles(02)
Julio Mateo(3333442143)
Travis Driskill(2230)


c
yz - Jeff Tam(2243335523)
z - Chad Fox(2413455332)
z - Kris Wilson(2342332435)
z - Al Levine(4253353253)
z - Willis Roberts(2240330503)
z - Rudy Seanez(3)
z - Danny Patterson
z - Jeff Zimmerman
Giovanni Carrara(2334303422)
Bobby Seay(544442023)
Todd Van Poppel(2432 in relief)
Tanyon Sturtze(43 in relief)

Few of these relievers are both healthy and established in their respective bullpens, and while Tam is a safe pick-up and we like Wilson's upside, avoid everyone else here.


x
y - Jorge Julio(4424332235)
z - Shigetoshi Hasegawa(4523455534)
Francisco Rodriguez(3452431313)
R.A. Dickey(5332342355)


y
Scot Shields(4332354240)
Johan Santana(4432313322)
Dave Elder(4401)
Scott Mullen(2)


z
Jay Powell(3232422422)
Sean Lowe(314244)
Mark Wohlers


AL starters I recommend despite their failure to appear above include Jeremy Bonderman(24342), Ryan Franklin(23202), Runelvys Hernandez(33322), Kyle Lohse(02443), Mike Maroth(04422), Jamie Moyer(43323), Brad Radke(43512), Rick Reed(04042), Kenny Rogers(33332), C.C. Sabathia(42235), and Jarrod Washburn(24343).

Other decent relievers include D.J. Carrasco, Lance Carter, Jesus Colome, Aquilino Lopez, Robert Person, Juan Rincon, and Chris Spurling.


We modified these ratings slightly since posting our team-by-team LPR scores in January. By reworking the A-Z and a-z ratings, we now easily can identify effective starters rather than looking for truly dominant performers, of which we only found a few pitchers in any of the previous few seasons.

1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2003.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2002.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2001.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score.

Note: Starters must pitch in five games before scoring DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who both reached 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2001 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2001 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2001 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2001 relief outings


We'll continue tomorrow with this week's NL LPR article.


Today's Fantasy Rx: The five most consistent skilled starters this year are Pedro, Mussina, Clemens, Loaiza, and Lidle. If you're looking to improve qualitatively, your best move is to drop your worst pitcher while trading for one of these five studs.


Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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