Today's Fantasy Rx

Note: The beginning of most stat lines includes the following data: H/AB for BA/OBP/SLG.

Arizona: Tony Womack, SS
25/111 for .225/.243/.315 with 0 HR, 7 RBI, 12 R, 3/5 SB%,
and a 2:17 BB:K.

In the last week Womack posted a .538/.533/.615 line over 13 at-bats, however he obviously won't continue this pace and I'm not nearly convinced that Womack can hold his starting job. Alex Cintron, and once healthy, Craig Counsell, both merit time at short far more than Womack. Unfortunately my major concern here is that despite playing in 33 games, Womack only has stolen three bases. Many speedsters start losing their gifts in their 30s, and Womack turned 33 last September. He also isn't a particularly gifted baserunner, and no one with a .243 OBP will see too many opportunities. Take advantage of his recent hot streak to deal Womack to any owner that still believes he can grab 20 steals this year, since if you're counting on those stolen bases, you need to look for alternate SB sources.

April Underachiever: Junior Spivey, 2B
Old stats: 9/51 for .176/.276/.235 with 0 HR, 6 RBI, 5 R, 1/1 SB%,
and a 6:14 BB:K.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 26/84 for .310 with 6 HR, 13 RBI, 17 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 7:21 BB:K.

Atlanta: Mark DeRosa, IF
9/51 for .176/.246/.255 with 1 HR, 4 RBI, 11 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 3:15 BB:K.

Most Spring Training reports suggested the Braves hoped that DeRosa might lead the infield in plate appearances while spelling Vinny Castilla, Marcus Giles, and Rafael Furcal. Instead Furcal and Giles' incredible seasons have keyed the Braves' offense, the primary reason the team owns the best record in the majors. Even Castilla is posting numbers comparable to his best park-adjusted Coors' numbers, so I see no reason DeRosa's playing time will increase any time soon. His .71 contact rate, an unwelcome departure from his .88 career norm prior to 2003, will keep his average from rising in the near future. Even though career-best marks of a 3.72 #P/PA and .88 G-F indicate some development in his batting skills, DeRosa lacks the plate discipline to take advantage of subtler skill improvement. I don't see him emerging as an important contributor for the Braves this year, so you probably should deal or cut him in favor of someone with either more immediate playing time or better skill upside.

April Underachiever: Chipper Jones, OF
Old stats: 16/63 for .254/.319/.413 with 2 HR, 7 RBI, 7 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 6:15 BB:K.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 29/89 for 326 with 5 HR, 22 RBI, 19 R, 1/1 SB%,
and a 22:12 BB:K.

Chicago Cubs: Mark Bellhorn, 3B
23/108 for .213/.355/.324 with 2 HR, 22 RBI, 13 R, 3/5 SB%,
and a 25:36 BB:K.

Thanks to the advice of a fishing buddy, Dusty Baker gave Bellhorn a chance in the leadoff spot, an excellent idea given Bellhorn's .355 OBP, the third best mark on the team after Sosa's .444, Alou's .355, and the first platoon of Hee Choi's .415 and Eric Karros' .413. Unfortunately Bellhorn's weak batting average limited his audition to two games. Yet his 1.42 G-F is dramatically worse than his .79 2002 G-F, and Bellhorn's 4.11 #P/PA makes him a useful batter at the top of the order. We simply don't see the necessary skills for him to rebound anywhere near last year's level of performance, and since Baker apparently won't use him at leadoff, he possesses little value to the Cubs. Try to deal Bellhorn to anyone hoping he'll regain his past productivity.

April Underachiever: Tom Goodwin, OF
Old stats: 1/11 for .091/.091/.091 with 0 HR, 0 RBI, 2 R, 1/1 SB%,
and an 0:2 BB:K.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 4/22 for .182 with 0 Hr, 1 RBI, 2 R, 3/3 SB%,
and a 0:6 BB:K.

Cincinnati: Barry Larkin, SS
14/53 for .264/.381/.415 with 1 HR, 4 RBI, 12 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 9:4 BB:K.

While Larkin's BA is superior to his averages from the last two seasons, his .17 walk rate and 92 contact rate suggest he's capable of approaching .300 again despite turning 38 last month. He possesses negligible speed and limited power, and his perpetual injury problems make him a risky player to own. Nevertheless, Larkin could provide a cheap BA boost to some teams, suggesting he's a reasonable target for certain owners to acquire for a minimum exchange.

April Underachiever: Felipe Lopez, SS/3B
Old stats: 11/54 for .204/.283/.315 with 1 HR, 3 RBI, 8 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 6:13 BB:K.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 23/94 for .245 with 1 HR, 7 RBI, 13 R, 6/11 SB%,
and an 11:23 BB:K.

Colorado: Jose Hernandez, SS
44/163 for .270/.344/.374 with 4 HR, 17 RBI, 21 R, 0/1 SB%,
and a 19:51 BB:K.

Hernandez's .374 SLG ranks as one of the more surprising stats of the season so far, especially since his contact rate is up to .68 from his .64 mark last year. He also owns both a career-best 4.25 #P/PA and .12 walk rate, so at least he maintains some value to the Rockies. Unfortunately a career-worst 2.56 G-F, far above his 1.71 career average, indicates Hernandez simply lacks either the power or swing plane necessary to drive the ball. I expected Hernandez would enjoy the same benefits from Coors as Preston Wilson, Jay Payton, and so many other hitters, but as long as Hernandez persists in hitting five groundballs for every two flyballs, we won't see a notable home run increase from him. Explore a deal with anyone who doesn't realize Hernandez's power likely won't return in the near future.

April Underachiever: Charles Johnson, C
Old stats: 8/45 for .178/.269/.356 with 2 HR, 7 RBI, 7 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 6:12 BB:K.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 18/59 for .305 with 2 HR, 11 RBI, 6 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 10:12 BB:K.

Florida: Andy Fox, MIF
10/41 for .244/.311/.317 with 0 HR, 2 RBI, 1/2 SB%,
and a 2:16 BB:K.

The key to Fox's usefulness is finding the playing time necessary to take advantage of his solid speed. Yet Alex Gonzalez's .976 OPS and Luis Castillo's .383 OBP mandate both players remain in the lineup nearly every day. Only a trade of or injury to either player will allow Fox to accumulate any significant worth. Anyone expecting his steals to increase will need to wait for that reward, though I see no guarantee Fox even will finish with positive roto value.

April Underachiever: Todd Hollandsworth, OF
Old stats: 14/57 for .246/.328/.316 with 1 HR, 7 RBI, 10 R, 2/3 SB%,
and a 7:17 BB:K.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 22/68 for .324 with 1 Hr, 3 RBI, 9 R, 0/1 SB%,
and a 6:14 BB:K.

We'll continue tomorrow with American League underachieving pitchers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Every team crossed the 40 game barrier within the last week, signaling the close of the season's first quarter. Assess your team(s) while realizing that any current statistical deficits could quadruple by the end of the year. Pursue trade opportunities with the goal of improving in the categories where you see the most upside.