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May
17th
2003
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
Rotohelp
NL LPR through 7 Weeks
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Please check here for a complete description of these rankings. We've included the five most recent 2003 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through May 15th.


123
None.


12
ABXY - Odalis Perez(44525)

13
ABCXZ - Kevin Brown(55455)

He looks like the best pitcher in the league right now, and any serious contender should own him in national games where we can select any players you want.


23
ABCXY - Roy Oswalt(34434)
BCYZ - Randy Johnson(4404)

abcxyz - Billy Wagner(4334554544)
bcyz - Jason Isringhausen
bcyz - Robb Nen

Oswalt's injury problems leave Wagner as the only healthy pitcher here, although at least Wagner remains as dominant as only closer in the league. I'll be shocked if he doesn't lead this list next week once he reaches 25 innings.


1
ABCXYZ - Curt Schilling(45144)
ABXY - Mark Prior(45341)
X - Mark Redman(33344)

Guillermo Mota(2335544235)

Eaton slipped in his last start before hitting the DL, and Shawn Chacon's numbers also are dropping. Of course Schilling's posting his best stats in years, and Mota reached 25 IP with great skills before any other National Leaguer.


2
ABCXY - Matt Morris(35434)
ABX - Woody Williams(42445)
ABY - Kevin Millwood(34344)

Abcyz - Byung-Hyun Kim(45252)

Cabxyz - John Smoltz(3224553445)
axy - Joe Borowski(5344343452)
byz - Steve Reed(1353352432)
cz - Jay Witasick


3
BCYZ - Brian Lawrence(50302)
BCYZ - Greg Maddux(35232)
ABC - Javier Vazquez(43440)
CXZ - Brad Penny(32333)
BC - Al Leiter(33320)

bcxyz - Scott Stewart(4552352355)
acxy - Rheal Cormier(5444444433)
cxz - Jeff Fassero(5533253552)
cyz - Jose Mesa(4343332324)
c - Grant Roberts


A
BXy - Carlos Zambrano(44335)
XYz - Kip Wells(44435)
BX - Adam Eaton(54404)
XZ - Darren Dreifort(53544)

X - Jeff Suppan(43334)
X - Matt Kinney(44354)
X - Brett Myers(44335)
b - Zach Day(53442)
Horacio Ramirez(54334)
Kerry Wood(43244)
Shawn Estes(00344)

Schmidt drops down and Darren Oliver drops off as the Cubs lock their fifth starter on the list. Jeff D'Amico also looks more risky after his last week.


B
XY - Matt Clement(54433)
Xz - Miguel Batista(03435 as starter)
C - Wade Miller(02403)
Y - A.J. Burnett(4444)
Ben Sheets(43334)
Jason Schmidt(33440)
Jake Peavy(14433)


C
X - Shane Reynolds(30433)
Steve Trachsel(24232)
Pedro Astacio(5031)

Zbxy - Terry Adams(3243301323)
ax - Rocky Biddle(5344433343)
a - Denny Reyes(4335542422)
a - Juan Cruz(1324535523)


X
Y - Randy Wolf(33343)
Russ Ortiz(43334)
Brett Tomko(34433)
Mike Hampton(23433)
Hideo Nomo(33323)

Tony Armas, Jr.(31443)
Padilla drops down, Seo drops off, and Hampton, despite displaying horrendous command all year, is pitching consistently decently.


Y
cz - Vincente Padilla(34300)
Orlando Hernandez.

Padilla's starting to struggle, but as I don't believe he's hiding any serious injury, now might be a good time to buy him cheaply.


Z
None.


a
bcxyz - Octavio Dotel(4434454424)
bcxyz - Paul Quantrill(4432234241)
bcxyz - Paul Shuey(2534342443)
bcxy - Mark Guthrie(4443014351)
bcxz - Braden Looper(5432344431)
bcyz - Jose Jimenez(4443543435)

bcx - Mike Myers(5344403553)
bcy - Armando Benitez(4314355525)
bcz - Scott Strickland(4345424343)
bxy - Ricky Stone(3444554344)
bxy - Eric Gagne(5444344432)
bxy - Tim Spooneybarger(5530455434)
bxy - Tim Worrell(5343353444)
bxy - Scott Williamson(4353344353)
cxz - Kyle Farnsworth(5524525444)
cxz - Graeme Lloyd(2444343544)

Spooneybarger and Farnsworth continue to dominate, and I see little reason why both relievers shouldn't begin closing within the year.

bx - Matt Herges(4445343334)
by - Luis Vizcaino(4454440543)
by - Mike Koplove(4543403551)
by - Armando Almanza(2424312444)
by - Darren Holmes(4255503550)
cz - Joe Beimel(4233530554)
cz - Felix Rodriguez(4155344223)

You still should be able to acquire Vizcaino fairly cheaply, so go get him, particularly if you can stash him on your bench until he shows slightly more consistency.

x - Javier Lopez(2545455425)
x - Tom Martin(5045545540)
Oscar Villarreal(4443252453)
Cal Eldred(2554250345)
Brad Lidge(4235434235)
Kevin Gryboski(2444013344)
Jung Bong(3552443132)
Troy Brohawn(3342435241)
T.J. Tucker(3413343422)

b
cz - Danny Graves(33534)
cz - John Riedling(004 as starter)
y - Chris Reitsma(410)
Carl Pavano(54034)
Jeff Austin(3323)

cxyz - Roberto Hernandez(5443333043)
cyz - Antonio Alfonseca(52524353)
cyz - Mike Remlinger(3324414025)
cyz - Ray King(5243400304)
cyz - Mike Williams(2532433423)
cyz - Todd Jones(2344332214)
xyz - Joey Eischen(4443523333)

cy - Trevor Hoffman
cz - Steve Kline(4322032053)
cz - Mike Lincoln
c - Brian Fuentes(3544233232)
y - Jason Middlebrook(43303)
y - Mike Crudale(2323)
y - Hector Mercado(3112)
y - Dave Coggin
y - Jayson Durocher
z - Scott Sauerbeck(4045033500)

Brian Boehringer(4422432342)
Carlos Silva(3334345341)
Justin Speier(4224423033)
Blaine Neal(3152514222)
Toby Borland(2424332)
Gene Stechschulte


c
z - Josh Fogg(2530)
Nelson Cruz(31130)

xz - Dave Weathers(5232345333)
x - Curt Leskanic(2433433555)
z - Jason Christiansen
z - Kevin Walker
Dan Plesac(3500404435)
Scott Eyre(5313432434)
Jesse Orosco(0424043532)
Allen Levrault(122243)
Dave Veres(23333)
John Franco


x
y - Matt Mantei(5335252553)
Mike Stanton(4335443434)
Kent Mercker(0435454433)
John Foster(3445441324)
Trey Hodges(02453434335)
Joe Nathan(2444344321)
Turk Wendell(3233344344)
Luis Ayala(3334432344)
Matt Ford(3333453343)

We see significant movement here as Jaret Wright, and Pete Munro drop off, but we gain six new pitchers who all merit ownership in most leagues. Hodges, Wendell, and Ayala possess the most potential given their skills and roles, however Ford may be the safest pick of anyone here outside of Stanton.


y
Brandon Villafuerte(5345433411)
Mike DeJean(4525332244)
Jaime Cerda(4332343231)
Brandon Puffer(3234432)


z
Paul Wilson(42023)


NL starters I recommend despite their failure to appear above include Kris Benson(23044), Jeff D'Amico(44423), Elmer Dessens(35244), Livan Hernandez(23344), Damian Moss(32433), and Brandon Webb(5334).

Other decent relievers include Jim Brower(2542212554), Kiko Calero(345342212), and Dan Smith(5303043343).


We modified these ratings slightly since posting our team-by-team LPR scores in January. By reworking the A-Z and a-z ratings, we wanted to be able to easily identify effective starters rather than looking for truly dominant performers, of which we only found a few pitchers in any of the previous few seasons.

1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2003.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2002.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2001.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score.

Note: Starters must pitch in five games before scoring DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who both reached 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2001 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2001 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2003 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2001 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2003 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2001 relief outings


Tomorrow, like every Sunday, we'll post our preview of the coming week's games and our CDM challenge lineups.


Today's Fantasy Rx: Owners in any standard league should check on Guillermo Mota's availability since his skills and stats both indicate he could approach double-digit value this year. He belongs on someone's roster in all but the deepest of leagues.


Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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