Today's Fantasy Rx

Note: For those of you unfamiliar with FAAB, each team normally begins with $100 to spend throughout the year on all free agent pickups. Most injury replacements or speculative picks go for a buck or two, hot starters go for $5-$10, top prospects go in the $10-$30 range, and we've seen $90+ bids on top players traded into the league.

Arizona: Jose Valverde, 23, RH Reliever
1-1 and 2 Saves on a 18:7 K:BB in 21.1 IP over 15 G
with 19 H, 1 HR, and a 2.95 ERA at AAA Tucson(PCL).

One of the interesting developments of this season is Arizona's willingness to take advantage of their impressive upper level pitching depth, cutting Swindell and Mike Jackson in favor of Steve Randolph and Oscar Villarreal, as well as starting John Patterson, Brandon Webb, and Andrew Good. Valverde owns some of the best stuff in the system, and while Matt Mantei, Mike Koplove, Mike Myers, Villarreal, and Randolph currently give the Snakes a good pen, Valverde possesses more upside than any reliever currently in the majors. He owns a 12.5 career K/9 in six minor league seasons, and his current 3.0 BB/9 demonstrates he's developed good control. Feel free to FAAB him for a buck or two if he pitches decently in a few outings after any promotion, especially since any recurrence of Mantei's health problems will open the closer's job to someone with Valverde's skills.

Atlanta: Travis Phelps, 25, RH Reliever
4-0 on a 27:9 K:BB in 21.2 IP over 14 G
with 13 H, 1 HR, and a 4.15 ERA at AAA Richmond(IL).

Tampa shockingly released him this spring after Phelps irritated Piniella, a ridiculous decision that cost the Rays one of their most skilled relievers. Atlanta quickly signed him, and while they don't currently need a bullpen upgrade, Phelps could join the Braves at any time if the team tires of Joey Dawley, Kevin Gryboski, or even Trey Hodges. He's capable of dominating as long as he holds his walk rate to a reasonable level, and given Leo Mazzone's success with far worse pitchers, Phelps could emerge as a valuable contributor for the Braves and fantasy owners. Consider spending a buck of FAAB on him after any promotion.

Chicago Cubs: Rod Beck, 34, RH Reliever
1-1 and 2 Saves on a 20:5 K:BB in 24 IP over 16 G
with 16 H, 1 HR, and a .38 ERA at AAA Iowa(PCL).

While we realize the Cubs' pen remains extremely crowded, Chicago could energize the pitching staff by promoting Beck, who's proving he's fully recovered from his arm problems. His 7.5 strikeout rate isn't great, but since his 1.9 BB/9 indicates the level of control we expect from Beck, we see no reason why he couldn't close in the majors right now. Keeping him at Iowa as roster insurance makes the most sense for the franchise, however if they give him an opportunity with a team like San Diego, Beck merits a significant FAAB investment from anyone trolling for saves.

Cincinnati: Lance Davis, 26, LH Starter
3-3 on a 23:9 K:BB in 40 IP over 7 GS
with 41 H, 4 HR, and a 3.60 ERA at AAA Louisville(IL)

Davis remains the Reds' logical option if they decide to add a left-handed starter or lose patience with a less-experienced member of the rotation like John Riedling or Jeff Austin. He appears on the normal lefty career path, and while I don't believe we ever should expect great dominance from Davis, a 2.0 BB/0 indicates he owns the control necessary to succeed in the majors. A respectable .9 HR/9 won't leave him too vulnerable to pitching home games at the GAB, so if you're searching for wins without too much downside, Davis is a good candidate to FAAB for a couple bucks after his promotion later this summer.

Colorado: Jason Young, 23, RH Starter
0-1 on a 5:2 K:BB in 5 IP over 1 GS
with 8 H, 2 HR, and a 9.00 ERA in Colorado.
3-1 on a 21:19 K:BB in 33 IP over 6 GS
with 33 H, 4 HR, and a 3.82 ERA at AAA Colorado Springs(PCL).

We ranked Young with the top starting prospects in the game prior to this season due to his Stanford pedigree, 6'5" projectability, and a quick rise through the system that included posting a 150:68 K:BB in 188.1 IP last year between AA Carolina(SL) and Colorado Springs. He was an inevitable choice as an early recall since he's among the most experienced prospects in the system and required a 40-man slot by the end of the season. Unfortunately his slow start this year indicates he requires more seasoning, especially since Coors acts very unfriendly to pitchers only posting a 5.7 K/9 and 5.1 BB/9 at AAA. Ignore Young for now until he either sees several more minor league starts or demonstrates rapid skill growth for the Rockies.

Florida: Doug Bochtler, 32, RH Reliever
3-0 on a 23:8 K:BB in 30 IP over 13 G(3GS)
with 34 H, 5 HR, and a 4.20 ERA at AAA Albuquerque(PCL).

Instead of trusting an impressive young bullpen, Florida's multiple rotation injuries caused the Marlins to quickly promote AAAA pitchers like Tommy Phelps, Toby Borland, and Allen Levrault. Of course these guys have posted great minor league numbers for years without receiving substantial major league consideration, so only a quick demotion of Blaine Neal strikes me as truly unnecessary. Now Neal's back in the majors, but with a pitching staff in flux until Beckett and Redman hopefully return, expect a recall of either Mike Judd or Bochtler in the next few weeks. Despite repeatedly showing up in Spring Training box scores, Bochtler hasn't pitched in the majors in two years, and he's only accumulated 21 IP above AAA since pending all of 1998 Detroit. His 6.9 K/9 shows why he struggles for promotion since nearly everyone prefers hard-throwing right-handers, but his good control will insure he reserves another look at some point. He could give the Marlins another respectable veteran arm, however his limited upside dictates you should ignore any call-up.

Houston: Jonathan Johnson, 28, RH Starter
3-3 on a 39:13 K:BB in 48.2 IP over 8 GS
with 46 H, 2 HR, and a 4.25 ERA at AAA New Orleans(PCL).

Injuries to Brian Moehler, Wade Miller, and Roy Oswalt likely will require a couple extra starters in the near future, and while Kirk Saarloos should receive another chance in Houston, Johnson merits serious consideration. The Rangers 1995 first round pick, selected seventh overall, never fulfilled Texas' expectations thanks to rushing through the minors, however a 21:5 K:BB in 15 IP for San Diego last year suggested he finally deserves an extended major league trial. Given the organization's willingness to let Pete Munro succeed in Houston, I wouldn't be shocked to see Johnson push 100 innings for the Astros this season if he takes advantage of a promotion in the near future. Don't rush to add him to your roster, but feel free to spend a couple buck of FAAB in deeper leagues since his 7.2 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, and a .4 HR/9 all suggest he's capable of posting an ERA around half his 6.82 career mark.

Los Angeles: Steve Colyer, 24, LH Reliever
0-0 on a 0:1 K:BB in 2.2 IP over 1 G
with 5 H, 0 HR, and a 3.38 ERA.
2-0 and 9 Saves on a 21:4 K:BB in 16.1 IP over 15 G
with 9 H, 0 HR, and a 1.10 ERA at AAA Las Vegas(PCL).

A young, live-armed lefty, Colyer opened the year in the majors after a fantastic spring to add a little pitching depth, and then he headed to Las Vegas after a couple days, where he dominated the PCL for the last month. He converted to relief last year but struggled to a 68:40 K:BB in 62.2 IP at AA Jacksonville(SL). Now he's demonstrating superb control, and the Dodgers recalled him yesterday when Troy Brohawn began a potentially length DL stay. John Sickels compares Colyer's stuff to that of Arthur Rhodes, and Colyer also benefits from pitching in Dodger Stadium as part of the major's best bullpen, so he shouldn't allow too many runs even if he struggles. Of course, I see no reason why he couldn't quickly emerge as a superb middle reliever, and right now you should only need a buck of FAAB to grab a potential $5+ player.

Milwaukee: Danny L. Kolb, 28, RH Reliever
0-0 and 1 Save on a 30:8 K:BB in 20.2 IP over 15 G
with 14 H, 1 HR, and a 1.31 ERA at AAA Indianapolis(IL).

Two years ago the Brewers owned Brandon Kolb and drafted Dan J. Kolb, currently a high-A starter, but after one year with only one Kolb in the system, Milwaukee decided to confuse casual box score watchers by signing Dan L. Kolb, the ex-Rangers' reliever. Fortunately Danny Kolb is excelling beyond most reasonable projections at AAA, and his 13.1 K/9 indicates he's ready to return to the majors. Unfortunately Milwaukee's bullpen already looks full with DeJean, Leskanic, Vizcaino, de los Santos, Ford, Kieschnick, and the pending return of Jayson Durocher, however Kolb deserves serious consideration for the next available opening. I even wouldn't be shocked if Kolb grabbed some save opportunities by the end of the season, so although you shouldn't rush to add him after any promotion, consider spending a few bucks of FAAB if Kolb impresses after his call-up.

Montreal: Julio Manon, 29, RH Reliever
1-0 and 7 Saves on a 26:8 K:BB in 19.1 IP over 15 G
with 12 H, 0 HR, and a .93 ERA at AAA Edmonton(PCL).

With Scott Stewart and Joey Eischen anchoring the left side of the pen, the Expos arguably could have broken camp with any of almost a dozen capable righties in camp. Selecting Luis Ayala, Rocky Biddle, Dan Smith, and T.J. Tucker over Britt Reames, Tim Drew, Sun-Woo Kim, Dicky Gonzalez, and Manon appeared nearly random at the time. Of course the chosen four all have performed admirably, although Montreal now possesses solid AAAA depth. Manon currently looks stronger than his teammates, and both his skills and more obvious stats like ERA and saves demonstrate he deserves a big league debut in the near future. Given his current 13.0 K/9 and similar performances in recent years, feel free to FAAB Manon cheaply when the Expos decide they need a twelfth pitcher since he shouldn't hurt you and could emerge as an important part of their bullpen due to the limited dominance of Tucker and Ayala.

New York Mets: Aaron Heilman, 24, RH Starter
5-2 on a 42:17 K:BB in 55.2 IP over 9 GS
with 49 H, 4 HR, and a 2.59 ERA at AAA Norfolk(IL).

Heilman may top the list of pitchers we expected to see in the majors by this point, however neither Bacsik or Middlebrook have impressed in brief auditions, and Jae Seo looks to be solidifying a rotation spot for the foreseeable future. New York will need to trade Pedro Astacio or Steve Trachsel to open a spot for Heilman, however once they promote him, I don't expect him to see the minors again unless he requires an occasional rehab assignment. In a little over 103 AAA innings, Heilman owns a 2.95 ERA on a 77:33 K:BB with 91 H and 7 HR, numbers that warrant promotion for any team in the majors. Assuming he's available in your league, immediately attempt to FAAB him upon any call-up, and if you're desperate for solid starting pitching, you should plan to spend well over $10 of your available budget.

Philadelphia: Ryan Madson, 22, RH Starter
4-2 on a 26:5 K:BB in 35 IP over 6 GS
with 34 H, 0 HR, and a 3.86 ERA at AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre(IL).

Both Josh Hancock and Madson look ready to contribute in the majors, but Madson's a Philly product rather than a trade acquisition, and he hasn't encountered the health problems of Hancock. Last year Madson won 16 games for AA Reading(EL) on the strength of a 132:53 K:BB in 171.1 IP. Despite his 6'6" height, he's not a dominant pitcher and will require very good control to succeed in the majors. Of course a 1.3 BB/9 certainly demonstrates the command I want to see, so if an injury opens the door for Madson to start a few games, his skills merit a FAAB bid of a few bucks given his solid WHIP and the high potential for wins thanks to the Phillies' offense.

Pittsburgh: Ryan Vogelsong, 25, RH Starter
5-3 on a 52:16 K:BB in 47.2 IP over 8 GS
with 47 H, 4 HR, and a 5.66 ERA at AAA Nashville(PCL).

Vogelsong's poor ERA makes little sense when considering his skills, and his standing among the top PCL strikeout leaders likely better represents his immediate potential. While he missed much of 2002 after undergoing Tommy John in late 2001, Vogelsong also demonstrated good dominance and command at every level, we should see him in the majors once management grows frustrated with a current starter. He ranked as a top prospect when the Giants dealt him with Armando Rios to the Pirates for Jason Schmidt and John Vander Wal, and Vogelsong finally appears ready to fulfill that promise. Owners in nearly any league should seek to FAAB him upon his inevitable promotion.

San Diego: Carlton Loewer, 29, RH Starter
5-2 on a 26:8 K:BB in 46 IP over 8 GS
with 55 H, 3 HR, and a 4.50 ERA at AAA Portland(PCL).

The Padres will need to promote a starter as soon as this weekend if Clay Condrey hits the DL as expected, and Loewer looks like the best Beaver available. While San Diego expected him to join their rotation three years ago rather than fall out of a hunting blind immediately after they acquired him from Philadelphia with Adam Eaton in the Ashby trade, Loewer finally looks ready to succeed for the Padres. Both his 1.6 BB/9 and .6 HR/9 suggest he'd pitch effectively in nearly any park in the league, so Loewer at least shouldn't hurt you at Qualcomm. He won't win many games thanks to San Diego's weak offense, however Loewer could emerge as a nice bargain if you can snag him for a couple bucks of FAAB.

San Francisco: Matt Blank, 27, LH Starter
1-1 on a 36:14 K:BB in 43.1 IP over 8 GS
with 44 H, 2 HR, and a 3.32 ERA between AAA Edmonton(PCL) and AAA Fresno(PCL).

Acquired from Montreal a couple weeks ago as the PTBNL in the Livan Hernandez trade, Blank continues to display solid command, albeit without the dominance we'd like to see at this level. The upside here is that the Giants always appear willing to shuffle their lefty relievers, and Blanks' skill set should acclimate to PacBell very nicely. He's not a better pick-up than someone like Tom Martin right now, but if San Francisco gives him a chance, Blank might merit a buck of FAAB from any owner desperate for a low-risk, low-upside middle reliever.

St. Louis: Dan Haren, 22, RH Starter
6-0 on a 49:6 K:BB in 55 IP over 8 GS
with 36 H, 2 HR, and a .82 ERA at AA Tennessee(SL).

The Cardinals moved Jimmy Journell to the bullpen after deciding he lacked the stamina to continue starting, and St. Louis elevated Haren from AA to replace Journell in the Redbirds' rotation. Over the last year-and-a-half, encompassing 12 starts at A- New Jersey and 14 starts at both A Peoria and A+ Potomac, Haren owned career stats including a 228:39 K:BB in 246 IP with 226 H, 20 HR, and a 2.82 ERA. His AA dominance isn't surprising after considering his minor league record thus far, and while another month at Tennessee wouldn't hurt Haren, I don't expect him to struggle at Memphis, and he should succeed in the majors as long as the Cardinals at least wait until August to promote him. Haren may be the best pitching prospect in baseball right now, and while owners in keeper leagues specifically should target him, he merits a moderate FAAB bid in every league upon his call-up.

Internet Challenge

The injuries to Randy and Beckett, along with our subsequent drop of Beckett, leave us with only 12 starters rostered and five available starts this weekend. We're going to remedy this unfortunate circumstance by adding the best and most balanced starter we don't own, Mike Mussina(1210), while dropping Eli Marrero, since even if we need a catcher in the next 8-12 weeks, we won't be able to use the injured Eli. Mussina's poor start against Anaheim slightly concerns us, however he offers excellent qualitative marks along with good strikeout numbers and maybe the best wins' upside in the majors. He even ranks as one of the better bargains in the game.

SP(6)
Mike Mussina: Sun:TEX(J.Thomson)
Kevin Millwood: Sun:@HOU(R.Oswalt)
Roy Halladay: Sat:@KC(J.Affeldt)
Jason Schmidt: Fri:NYM(P.Astacio)
Mark Prior: Sat:@STL(B.Tomko)
Kurt Ainsworth: Sun:NYM(T.Glavine)

No starts: Randy, Pedro, Schilling, Morris, Oswalt, Wood, and W.Miller.

We like all six starts here, although we're looking forward to employing our expensive aces early next week.

Durazo, Thomas, Aramis Ramirez, and Jose Hernandez are easy choices to sit, however we don't want to leave Manny benched. Matsui's OBP is rebounding but his power numbers remain low, so we'll stick with the more experienced and disciplined Manny.

The Umpire Hunter(5th lg; 191st overall)
Week 7b: May 16-May 18

C	Jorge Posada		1120
C	Toby Hall		460
1B	Todd Helton		1850
1B	Aubrey Huff		610
2B	Alfonso Soriano		1460
2B	Luis Castillo		1210
3B	Aaron Boone		1010
3B	Hank Blalock		500
SS	Alex Rodriguez		2010
SS	Nomar Garciaparra	1330
OF	Vlad Guerrero		2010
OF	Lance Berkman		1640
OF	Preston Wilson		1220
OF	Manny Ramirez		1610
OF	Austin Kearns		650
OF	Dave Roberts		620
DH	Larry Walker		1400
DH	Orlando Cabrera		1030

SP	Mike Mussina		1210
SP	Kevin Millwood		1010
SP	Roy Halladay		890
SP	Jason Schmidt		790
SP	Mark Prior		750
SP	Kurt Ainsworth		430
RP	Scott Williamson	960
RP	Mike MacDougal		750
RP	Tim Worrell		740
RP	Matt Mantei		700

Total Salary for Week 7b: 	29970

Today's Fantasy Rx: We caught The Matrix Reloaded last night, and while the movie doesn't possess the same shock value as The Matrix, we weren't disappointed in the movie at all. The plot stayed at roughly the same level as the first movie, so although Reloaded really only works on the level of an action-adventure sci-fi spectacular, it hits almost all expected notes on that level. Nearly every scene enhanced the movie, and while the special effects of The Matrix and Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon provided a welcome evolutionary step in movie fight scenes, Reloaded nicely builds on the impressive established standards. It echoes Empire Strikes Back in several ways, particularly the wide effects shots, and as long as you liked The Matrix and don't mind shelling out for another ticket this fall when The Matrix Revolutions hits theaters, you should enjoy this flick.