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May
11th
2003
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
Rotohelp
Sunday Challenge Conversation, '03 Week 7
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Colorado: 7 Home games: 3 vs New York Mets
    4 vs. Montreal.
Houston: 7 games: 4 Road at Pittsburgh; 3 Home vs. Philadelphia.
Cincinnati: 6 Road games: 3 at St. Louis; 3 at Milwaukee.

7 Home games
Milwaukee: 4 vs. Chicago Cubs; 3 vs. Cincinnati.
Minnesota: 4 vs. Kansas City; 3 vs. Chicago White Sox.
San Diego: 3 vs. Florida; 4 vs. Atlanta.
San Francisco: 3 vs. Montreal; 4 vs. New York Mets.

7 games
Pittsburgh: 4 Home vs. Houston; 3 Road at Arizona.

Kansas City: 4 Road at Minnesota; 4 Home vs. Toronto.

7 Road games
Atlanta: 3 at Los Angeles; 4 at San Diego.
Chicago Cubs: 4 at Milwaukee; 3 at St. Louis.
Montreal: 3 at San Francisco; 4 at Colorado.
New York Mets: 3 at Colorado; 4 at San Francisco.

Teams with six home games: Boston, Cleveland, Detroit, Los Angeles, New York Yankees, and St. Louis.

All other teams play six games with at least three on the road.


Pitchers of interest with two starts(whom we'd start if we owned them):
Brandon Webb: Tue:@PHI(K.Millwood); Sun:PIT(J.Suppan)
Shane Reynolds: Mon:@LA(H.Nomo): Sat:@SD(C.Condrey)
Russ Ortiz: Tue:@LA(K.Ishii); Sun:@SD(B.Lawrence)
John Burkett: Tue:TEX(J.Benoit); Sun:ANA(J.Lackey)
Esteban Loiaza: Tue:BAL(O.Daal); Sun:@MIN(K.Lohse)
Mark Prior: Mon:@MIL(G.Rusch); Sat:@STL(B.Tomko)
Shawn Estes: Tue:@MIL(R.Quevedo): Sun:@STL(J.Simontacchi)
Mike Maroth: Tue:OAK(T.Lilly); Sun:SEA(J.Pineiro)
Brad Penny?: Tue:@SD(B.Lawrence): Sun:@LA(H.Nomo)?
Tim Redding: Tue:@PIT(J.Suppan): Sun:PHI(K.Millwood)
Jeremy Affeldt: Mon:@MIN(J.Mays); Sun:TOR(T.Sturtze)
Hideo Nomo: Mon:ATL(S.Reynolds); Sun:FLO(B.Penny or T.Phelps)
Joe Mays: Mon:KC(J.Affeldt); Sat:CHW(J.Garland or M.Buehrle)
Kyle Lohse: Tue:KC(K.Snyder); Sun:CHW(E.Loaiza)
Mike Mussina: Tue:ANA(J.Lackey); Sun:TEX(J.Benoit)
Ted Lilly: Tue:@DET(M.Maroth); Sun:@CLE(Br.Anderson)
Kevin Millwood: Tue:ARI(B.Webb); Sun:@HOU(T.Redding)
Jeff Suppan: Tue:HOU(T.Redding); Sun:ARI(B.Webb)
Brian Lawrence: Tue:FLO(B.Penny); Sun:ATL(Rus.Ortiz)
Joel Pineiro: Tue:@CLE(Br.Anderson); Sun:@DET(M.Maroth)
Damian Moss: Mon:MON(Z.Day); Sat:NYM(S.Trachsel)
Kurt Ainsworth: Tue:MON(T.Ohka); Sun:NYM(T.Glavine)
Jason Simontacchi: Tue:CIN(Pa.Wilson); Sun:CHC(S.Estes)
Joe Kennedy: Tue:@TOR(T.Sturtze); Sun:@BAL(O.Daal)

Only deploy in Fantasy Baseball and other leagues that don't count qualitative stats:
John Lackey: Tue:@NYY(M.Mussina); Sun:@BOS(J.Burkett)
Omar Daal: Tue:@CHW(E.Loaiza); Sun:TB(J.Kennedy)
Paul Wilson: Tue:@STL(J.Simontacchi): Sun:@MIL(R.Quevedo)
Brian Anderson: Tue:SEA(J.Pineiro); Sun:OAK(T.Lilly)
Shawn Chacon: Tue:NYM(T.Glavine): Sun:MON(T.Ohka)
Scott Linebrink: Mon:@PIT(Sal.Torres): Sat:PHI(B.Duckworth)
Glendon Rusch: Mon:CHC(M.Prior); Sat:CIN(R.Dempster)
Ruben Quevedo: Tue:CHC(S.Estes); Sun:CIN(Pa.Wilson)
Zach Day: Mon:@SF(D.Moss); Sat:@COL(N.Cruz)
Tomo Ohka: Tue:@SF(K.Ainsworth); Sun:@COL(S.Chacon)
Steve Trachsel: Mon:@COL(J.Young or C.Vance); Sat:@SF(D.Moss)
Tom Glavine: Tue:@Col(S.Chacon); Sun:@SF(K.Ainsworth)
Salomon Torres: Mon:HOU(S.Linebrink); Sat:@ARI(M.Batista)
Clay Condrey: Mon:FLO(T.Phelps); Sat:ATL(S.Reynolds)
Joaquin Benoit: Tue:@BOS(J.Burkett); Sun:@NYY(M.Mussina)
Tanyon Sturtze: Tue:TB(J.Kennedy); Sun:@KC(J.Affeldt)


Diamond Challenge

While we're tempted to replace Beckett or Wade Miller, Mike Mussina's available as a free agent next week, and we can grab Roger Clemens as a free agent in two weeks.

However while we don't need another starting pitching, Hank Blalock's 4-5 performance today necessitates adding him as a free agent. Between his great salary(500) and league-leading BA, we see little justification for not grabbing him. We'll dump the DL'd Josh Beckett, who hadn't overly impressed us even when healthy.


SP(6)
Randy Johnson: DL(No start)
Pedro Martinez: Thu:TEX(D.Davis)
Curt Schilling: Wed:@PHI(B.Myers)
Tim Hudson: Wed:@DET(G.Knotts)
Matt Morris: Thu:CIN(J.Riedling)
Roy Oswalt: Wed:@PIT(J.D'Amico)
Kevin Millwood: Tue:ARI(B.Webb); Sun:@HOU(T.Redding)
Kerry Wood: Thu:@MIL(B.Sheets)
Wade Miller: Thu:@PIT(K.Benson)
Kevin Brown: Wed:ATL(G.Maddux)
Roy Halladay: Fri:@KC(C.George)
Jason Schmidt: Fri:NYM(P.Astacio)
Mark Prior: Mon:@MIL(G.Rusch); Sat:@STL(B.Tomko)

Millwood and Prior obviously will pitch for us, and we like the home stats from Morris, Brown, and Schmidt. While we almost deployed Pedro over Hudson, we like Hudson in Detroit and are concerned Pedro might miss his start for health reasons. Plus Texas' offense gives Pedro much more downside than Hudson against the Tigers.

Offensively, Marrero's sprained ankle today means he'll sit in favor of IRod and Marrero, Durazo's slump and an Oakland road trip indicates we should keep Huff and Thomas active, and despite Aramis Ramirez's decent RBI total last week, we want Blalock in the lineup and won't bench Boone. Larry Walker and Preston Wilson are good players with Colorado home for the week, however we don't see an obvious lineup slot for Jose Hernandez, so he'll join Ichiro on our bench.


Interview with the Umpire(11th lg; 85th div; 1959th overall),
Shadow of the Umpire(8th lg; 98th div; 1960th overall), &
Dance of the Umpires(9th lg; 78th div; 1961st overall)
Week 7: May 12-May 18

C	Ivan Rodriguez		1070
C	Toby Hall		460
1B	Frank Thomas		920
1B	Aubrey Huff		610
2B	Alfonso Soriano		1460
2B	Luis Castillo		1210
3B	Aaron Boone		1010
3B	Hank Blalock		500
SS	Nomar Garciaparra	1330
SS	Alex Rodriguez		2010
OF	Vlad Guerrero		2010
OF	Lance Berkman		1640
OF	Manny Ramirez		1610
OF	Hideki Matsui		750
OF	Austin Kearns		650
OF	Dave Roberts		620
DH	Larry Walker		1400
DH	Preston Wilson		1220

SP	Tim Hudson		1340
SP	Matt Morris		1300
SP	Kevin Millwood		1010
SP	Kevin Brown		990
SP	Mark Prior		750
SP	Jason Schmidt		790
RP	Scott Williamson	960
RP	Mike MacDougal		750
RP	Tim Worrell		740
RP	Matt Mantei		700

Total Salary for Week 7: 	29810


Internet Challenge

Marrero's injury forces a last-minute roster change. We're reserving Marrero, releasing Ichiro, who we never play since we're good in steals and BA, and adding Jorge Posada to provide solid power at an otherwise weak position.

SP(6)
Pedro Martinez: Thu:TEX(D.Davis)
Curt Schilling: Wed:@PHI(B.Myers)
Matt Morris: Thu:CIN(J.Riedling)
Roy Oswalt: Wed:@PIT(J.D'Amico)
Kevin Millwood: Tue:ARI(B.Webb)
Kerry Wood: Thu:@MIL(B.Sheets)
Wade Miller: Thu:@PIT(K.Benson)
Mark Prior: Mon:@MIL(G.Rusch)
Kurt Ainsworth: Tue:MON(T.Ohka)

No starts: Randy, Halladay, Schmidt, and Beckett.

We're unwilling to risk a delay of Pedro's start due to injury, so Morris, Millwood, and Ainsworth comprise our only home starts. Oswalt and Prior both look solid on the road, and since we're a little short on cap room, we'll take Wood over Schilling.

Offensively, Helton, Wilson, and Walker enter our lineup, but with Montreal in Colorado on Thurday, we'd rather leave Cabrera active rather than deploying Hernandez. Thomas, Durazo, and Manny all sit thanks to their slumps and weak schedules, with Ichiro joining them as the last guy on the bench.

Since these moves leave us slightly over budget, we'll add Hank Blalock here, dumping Josh Beckett, who we don't expect to contribute for us any time soon. If we need a starter in a week or two, we'll likely add Kevin Brown or one of the Yankees or A's.


The Umpire Hunter(6th lg; 211st overall)
Week 7a: May 12-May 18

C	Jorge Posada		1120
C	Toby Hall		460
1B	Todd Helton		1850
1B	Aubrey Huff		610
2B	Alfonso Soriano		1460
2B	Luis Castillo		1210
3B	Aaron Boone		1010
3B	Hank Blalock		500
SS	Alex Rodriguez		2010
SS	Nomar Garciaparra	1330
OF	Vlad Guerrero		2010
OF	Lance Berkman		1640
OF	Preston Wilson		1220
OF	Hideki Matsui		750
OF	Austin Kearns		650
OF	Dave Roberts		620
DH	Larry Walker		1400
DH	Orlando Cabrera		1030

SP	Curt Schilling		1610
SP	Matt Morris		1300
SP	Roy Oswalt		1280
SP	Kevin Millwood		1010
SP	Mark Prior		750
SP	Kurt Ainsworth		430
RP	Scott Williamson	960
RP	Mike MacDougal		750
RP	Tim Worrell		740
RP	Matt Mantei		700

Total Salary for Week 7a: 	29790


Fantasy Baseball & Budget Baseball
(Same rules = same rosters and moves for both teams)

SP(6)
Randy Johnson: DL(No start)
Curt Schilling: Wed:@PHI(B.Myers)
Pedro Martinez: Thu:TEX(D.Davis)
Mike Mussina: Tue:ANA(J.Lackey); Sun:TEX(J.Benoit)
Roy Oswalt: Wed:@PIT(J.D'Amico)
Kerry Wood: Thu:@MIL(B.Sheets)
Kevin Millwood: Tue:ARI(B.Webb); Sun:@HOU(T.Redding)
Roy Halladay: Fri:@KC(C.George)
Jason Schmidt: Fri:NYM(P.Astacio)
Mark Prior: Mon:@MIL(G.Rusch); Sat:@STL(B.Tomko)

Mussina, Millwood, and Prior are obvious picks here, and Schmidt also looks quite solid. Our concern over Pedro's injury leads us to leave him benched, and as we're also worried about Kerry's 141-pitch outing yesterday, we'll complete our rotation with Oswalt and Halladay, both of whom face weaker opposition than Schilling.

Offensively, Marrero's injury forces him to our bench, and with Helton, Phelps, Rolen, and Hinske all looking solid, we'll sit Thomas, Hudson, Crede, and Jose Hernandez. In the outfield, we can't quite find room for Larry Walker, and we don't mind benching Manny or Burrell given their recent slumps.


The Umpire Chronicles(8th lg; 1205th overall)
& Umpire with a Soul(15th lg; 2595th overall)
Week 7: May 12-May 18

C	Jason Varitek		1400
C	Toby Hall		1070
1B	Todd Helton		3320	
1B	Josh Phelps		1480
2B	Alfonso Soriano		2570
2B	Mark Ellis		1100
3B	Scott Rolen		2660
3B	Eric Hinske		1750
SS	Nomar Garciaparra	2300
SS	Orlando Cabrera		1820
OF	Albert Pujols		3150
OF	Lance Berkman		2850
OF	Juan Gonzalez		1980
OF	Vernon Wells		1780
OF	Austin Kearns		1600
OF	Hideki Matsui		1500
DH	Vlad Guerrero		3440
DH	Preston Wilson		2410

SP	Mike Mussina		2920
SP	Roy Oswalt		2800
SP	Kevin Millwood		2400
SP	Roy Halladay		2010
SP	Jason Schmidt		1990
SP	Mark Prior		1800
RP	Eric Gagne		2560
RP	Keith Foulke		2330
RP	Mike MacDougal		1500
RP	Matt Mantei		1200

Total Salary for Week 7: 	59690


Today's Fantasy Rx: If you don't already own Vlad Guerrero, I can't imagine a better week to add him. His BA/HR/SB combination outpaces nearly every player in the game, and four games in Colorado could provide a significant boost to your stats. The only problem I see is that his 1.50 G-F is his worst mark since his rookie year in 1997, but I still see little reason why he won't continue his customary pattern of dominating in May.


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