Today's Fantasy Rx

Arizona: Mike Myers, LH Reliever
0-0 on a 1:4 K:BB in 5.1 IP over 9 G
with 8 H, 0 HR, and an 18-3 G-F; 8.44 ERA.

The Diamondbacks' International Man of Mystery usually provides fantasy owners with safe respite as he pitches to no more than three batters in the vast majority of his appearances. He might not post overly helpful qualitative marks, but Myers normally manages a couple wins while not pitching enough innings to affect anyone's stats to a significant extent. Unfortunately Myers currently is displaying little skill of any sort. Still, his inflated ERA appears more the result of a small sample size than any other deterioration given his fantastic 6.00 G-F. I see no need to target him in any but the deepest leagues, however your team shouldn't suffer if you already own him and decide to wait another couple weeks before seriously considering a replacement.

Atlanta: Greg Maddux, RH Starter
2-3 on a 20:7 K:BB in 33.1 IP over 6 GS
with 42 H, 7 HR, and a 47-46 G-F; 5.94 ERA.

I'm beginning to wonder how many more seasons we'll wind up hearing Maddux embody "I'm not dead yet" for a skeptical fantasy audience near the beginning of May. He currently ranks among the worst starters in baseball in terms of overall performance, yet he also opened 2002 with a 4.37 ERA in April, along with a troublesome 13:12 K:BB in 22.2 IP, before posting a sub-2.50 ERA over the balance of last season. This season, instead of questionable command, his ground-fly ratio has fallen from 2.23 in 2002 to a career-worst 1.02 mark, which helps explain his rather shocking 1.9 homer rate. His current 5-start QA log of 02333 indicates his problems with flyballs, homers, and hits, and at least his 40303 last April demonstrated some skill upside. Of course we're still a discussing an unquestioned first ballot Hall of Famer on his way to no less than 300 wins. I expect he'll rebound as the year progresses to the extent that San Diego will offer a considerable sum to tutor Lawrence, Eaton, and Peavy for a couple seasons. Don't give up more than $15 in value in a standard league, however you definitely could explore any option to acquire him to help your starting pitching.

Chicago Cubs: Juan Cruz, RH Reliever
0-0 on a 14:4 K:BB in 10.1 IP over 6 G
with 13 H, 2 HR, and an 8-13 G-F; 6.97 ERA.

Despite opening the season by tying a team record with 8 consecutive strikeouts in relief, Cruz currently ranks as the Cubs' worst reliever and should head back to the minors after Alfonseca and Dave Veres return sometime in the next couple weeks. Dusty Baker only has used Cruz four times in the last three weeks, and while he's flashed brilliance, including his most recent outing Sunday in Pittsburgh where he struck out three in three innings while only allowing a hit an inning, he isn't a vital part of Chicago's relief corps. Cruz's future remains in the rotation, and the expected struggles of Shawn Estes should enable Cruz to make that transition around the All-Star Break. First he'll need to continue building arm strength for a couple months in the minors, so unfortunately owners in single-season leagues should immediately look to deal him for any reasonable return. Everyone else should wait until he's back in the minors before seeking him in trade as his future obviously still appears quite bright.

Cincinnati: John Riedling, RH Reliever
0-0 and 1 Save on an 8:8 K:BB in 12.1 IP over 10 G
with 14 H, 2 HR, and a 24-11 G-F; 5.84 ERA.

While we expected largely disastrous performances from Cincy's starters, the struggles of the demoted Josias Manzanillo and Riedling rank as unpleasant surprises. Rather than Riedling emerging as a potential challenger for Williamson's saves, even a respectable ground-fly ratio, albeit a career-worst 2.18 G-F, can't keep him from these poor qualitative marks. In consideration of both these questionable skills and the downside of pitching at the GAB, you should deal or cut Riedling.

Colorado: Jason Jennings, RH Starter
1-3 on a 26:10 K:BB in 25 IP over 5 GS
with 38 H, 5 HR, and a 30-30 G-F; 7.92 ERA.

The reigning NL Rookie of the Year opened the year in rather horrendous fashion, yet some of his skills clearly are superior to his 2002 marks in most respects. His 9.4 K/9 is a fantastic improvement over his 6.2 strikeout rate while his walk rate only inched from 3.4 to 3.6 BB/9. A drop from 1.64 to 1.21 G-F troubles me, however the major problem here is that Colorado owns the league's worst defense, and a jump from a 9.4 hit rate to Jennings' 13.7 H/9 accounts for most of his terrible qualitative marks. Jennings' 04403 QA log demonstrates he's capable of displaying dominant pitching, so while I'd never want him in shallow leagues or anywhere with very limited transactions, Jennings could contribute to some fantasy teams if you deploy him for road starts. I can't imagine you'd need to pay nearly anything to acquire him right now.

Florida: Vlad Nunez, RH Reliever
0-3 on a 9:4 K:BB in 8.2 IP over 9 G
with 16 H, 6 HR, and a 13-17 G-F; 14.54 ERA.

While the Marlins own one of the worse defenses in the league, Nunez could be a victim of extraordinary bad luck, tipping his pitches, or hiding an injury. A 16.7 H/9 from him makes little sense given a career-high 9.3 K/9 and an acceptable 4.2 BB/9. Of course a drop in his G-F for the third straight year indicates the homers aren't a fluke, so even if his hit rate drops, I doubt he'll manage positive qualitative marks on the balance of the year. Deal or cut Nunez as he won't regain a short relief role any time soon.

Houston: Wade Miller, RH Starter
0-1 on a 16:11 K:BB in 21.2 IP over 4 GS
with 22 H, 1 HR, and a 37-21 G-F; 4.15 ERA.

Miller may possess incredible upside, however his inconsistency leaves him exposed to these slumps. A 0543 QA log probably illustrates Miller's skill level better than his 6.6 K/9 or 4.6 BB/9 as we never know if he'll dominate his opposition or leave the game by the fourth inning. We still like Miller and believe he'll develop into a top starter, but his unreliability makes him risky to own. Still, if you've already rostered him, you might as well wait for a few wins unless you receive a really solid offer.

Los Angeles: Andy Ashby, RH Swingman
0-3 on a 7:2 K:BB in 8 IP over 4 G(1GS)
with 13 H, 1 HR, and a 14-8 G-F; 11.25 ERA.

The impressive recoveries from 2002 injuries of Kevin Brown, Darren Dreifort, and Kaz Ishii left Ashby without a rotation spot, and while he's struggled in the pen thus far, his skills indicate moderate upside. Los Angeles possesses a fantastic relief corps, so Jim Tracy can spot Ashby when he needs an unexpected start or long relief outing. Unfortunately these are not circumstances particularly conducive to qualitative success, and while you should wait for now with the expectation his numbers will rebound, feel free to roster a superior pitcher if you see one available.

Milwaukee: Luis Vizcaino, RH Reliever
0-1 on a 11:6 K:BB in 8 IP over 10 G
with 16 H, 4 HR, and a 7-10 G-F; 15.75 ERA.

Vizcaino ranks among the most disappointing pitchers of the year thus far thanks to the terrible combination of allowing nearly three baserunners an inning and a home run every two innings. His .70 G-F suggests his homer rate will not drop dramatically in the near future, and Milwaukee also doesn't possess the bullpen depth necessary to compensate for effectively losing their best reliever. Yet his overall dominance indicates he still owns solid potential, so you should wait in the expectation that his ERA will drop to a quarter of his current mark by the All-Star Break.

Montreal: Scott Stewart, LH Reliever
1-0 on a 5:1 K:BB in 9.2 IP over 11 G
with 8 H, 2 HR, and an 8-13 G-F; 0.93 ERA.

The quick start of Rocky Biddle leaves Stewart as one of two lefty specialists for Montreal, so he doesn't appear likely to make a significant quantitative contribution this year. However he remains a skilled and experienced reliever, and while a .62 G-F and the Expos' trips to Puerto Rico insure an annoying downside, Stewart still should manage helpful qualitative numbers. Particularly if his current owner is irritated at losing a dozen potential saves, see if you can acquire Stewart while his value is low.

New York Mets: Armando Benitez, RH Closer
0-3 and 6 Saves on a 13:8 K:BB in 11.1 IP over 11 G
with 18 H, 2 HR, and a 16-12 G-F; 6.35 ERA.

All of Benitez's numbers seem unfairly inflated to this point considering he remains a dominant closer with a solid 1.33 G-F. His walk rate and homer rate both should drop slightly, but his 14.3 H/9 appears responsible for most of this qualitative damage. New York's defense should improve over the balance of the year, and as Benitez's hit rate drops, so will his ERA and WHIP. The change of the Mets rebuilding leaves him a risky pick-up, although you certainly should wait if you already own him.

Philadelphia: Joa Roa, RH Swingman
0-2 on a 14:3 K:BB in 15.2 IP over 3 GS(4G)
with 22 H, 2 HR, and a 26-13 G-F; 5.74 ERA.

Roa succeeded for years as a AAAA pitcher due to outstanding control, and the surprise here is that he matched a great strikeout rate to his excellent walk rate. The only reason his numbers look so poor is that Philadelphia's given him little defensive support, and any drop in his hit rate will push his value upward. Look to acquire Roa, particularly if you want to add someone with significant vulture wins upside as a long reliever.

Pittsburgh: Brian Boehringer, RH Reliever
0-1 on a 6:2 K:BB in 8 IP over 10 G
with 7 H, 2 HR, and a 5-11 G-F; 7.88 ERA.

I see no fundamental problem with these skills other than a terrible .45 G-F and subsequently damaging homer rate, however his solid walk and hit rates give him moderate value even with this terrible ERA. Disastrous outings in Philadelphia and Chicago account for most of his problems, and he otherwise appears moderately effective as Williams' set-up man. Boehringer is a relatively risky pick and likely won't earn more than a couple bucks this year, however if you're desperate for saves, feel free to acquire him since continuing struggles from Mike Williams could allow Boehringer to move into a primary late-inning role.

San Diego: Brandon Villafuerte, RH Reliever
0-2 and 2 Saves on a 12:10 K:BB in 11.2 IP over 12 G
with 12 H, 5 HR, and a 19-11 G-F; 7.71 ERA.

San Diego apparently placed Villafuerte back into middle relief thank to the excessive baserunners and ridiculously high 3.9 HR/9 he allowed during his short relief stints. While we believe he could succeed as a closer if given a longer audition, he excelled in middle relief last season and would possess more value to the Padres in his old role. So as his overall skill set suggests he should own considerably lower qualitative marks, especially since his G-F indicates bizarre inflation in his homer rate, anyone who purchased him as a likely closer can wait in the expectation he should provide some fantasy help for your team.

San Francisco: Kurt Ainsworth, RH Starter
3-1 on a 16:6 K:BB in 23.1 IP over 4 GS
with 25 H, 5 HR, and a 38-24 G-F; 5.40 ERA.

We rated Ainsworth as likely the best rookie pitcher in the league prior to the season, and while his 3-1 record is helpful, a 5.40 ERA is not. A 4420 QA log illustrates his struggles toward the end of the month, however while most of his skills look solid, we expect his 1.9 homer rate to fall thanks to his 1.58 G-F. While you shouldn't target him given the frequent inconsistency of young pitchers, wait if you already own him since we expect he'll finish with double-digit value, thanks primarily to his qualitative stats.

St. Louis: Jason Simontacchi, RH Starter
0-1 on a 7:10 K:BB in 12 IP over 3 GS
with 23 H, 4 HR, and a 20-19 G-F; 11.25 ERA.

While he emerged as on the most interesting stories of 2002, Simontacchi no longer looks like he belongs in the majors. He neither has demonstrated dominance nor command to any notable extent this year, and his awful early qualitative marks leave many teams in unwelcome statistical holes. Deal or cut him as I expect St. Louis will replace him with someone like Chuck Finley within the next couple weeks.

Internet Challenge

SP(6)
Randy Johnson: Sun:@NYM(J.Seo)?
Pedro Martinez: Sun:@ANA(J.Lackey)
Kevin Millwood: Sun:SF(J.Foppert)
Roy Halladay: Fri:KC(D.May)
Mark Prior: Fri:@COL(N.Cruz)
Josh Beckett: Sat:STL(J.Simontacchi)
Kurt Ainsworth: Fri:@PHI(V.Padilla)

No starts: Schilling, Morris, Oswalt, Wood, W.Miller, and Schmidt.

Pedro, Millwood, Haladay, and Beckett are easy decisions, however we're willing to risk Prior in Coors, particularly when we're counting on offense from several Rockies. We'll risk both Ainsworth, and assuming we don't need the money for offense, Randy.

Frank Thomas will sit against Minnesota, and we're not fond of either Orlando Cabrera or Berkman right now as Houston plays in Montreal. There's no room for Jose Hernandez in our lineup, and we have no reason to deploy Ichiro at home against Detroit's relatively decent running defense. Deploying Randy over Prior leaves us a full lineup with only 30 bucks of cap room to spare.

The Umpire Hunter(6th lg; 262nd overall)
Week 4b: April 25-April 27

C	Eli Marrero		580
C	Toby Hall		460
1B	Todd Helton		1850
1B	Erubiel Durazo		520
2B	Alfonso Soriano		1460
2B	Luis Castillo		1210
3B	Aaron Boone		1010
3B	Aramis Ramirez		820
SS	Alex Rodriguez		2010
SS	Nomar Garciaparra	1330
OF	Vlad Guerrero		2010
OF	Manny Ramirez		1610
OF	Larry Walker		1400
OF	Hideki Matsui		750
OF	Austin Kearns		650
OF	Dave Roberts		620
DH	Preston Wilson		1220
DH	Aubrey Huff		610

SP	Randy Johnson		2010
SP	Pedro Martinez		1700
SP	Kevin Millwood		1010
SP	Roy Halladay		890
SP	Josh Beckett		700
SP	Kurt Ainsworth		430
RP	Scott Williamson	960
RP	Mike MacDougal		750
RP	Matt Anderson		700
RP	Matt Mantei		700

Today's Fantasy Rx: A couple pitchers on nearly every team right now are underachieving to a notable extent, however I'm surprised that many of these player suffer from skill deficiencies as well as poor stats. Pitchers with formerly excellent control suddenly have begun allowing nearly as many walks as they've recorded strikeouts. When you're trolling for low-risk pitching roster filler, first target pitchers with walk rates below 3.0 BB/9, and then consider other statistics. Providing he doesn't allow a tremendous abundance of hits, pitchers with demonstrably good control will help most fantasy teams to a greater extent than those with elevated walk rates and few other redeeming qualities.