Today's Fantasy Rx

Note: The beginning of most stat lines includes the following data: H/AB for BA/OBP/SLG.

Anaheim: David Eckstein, SS
17/71 for .239/.368/.296 with 1 HR, 5 RBI, 14 R, 2/4 SB%,
and an 11:5 BB:K.

Over the first two years of his career, Eckstein's averaged a .512 OPS in Oakland, a .679 OPS in Seattle, and a .553 OPS in Texas. As Anaheim's only road trips thus far have taken the team to the homes of their division rivals, Eckstein simply hasn't spent sufficient time in friendly stadiums. He's holding an .829 OPS in his 28 at-bats at Edison International. With a .15 walk rate and .93 contact rate, expect his BA to shoot upward within weeks, giving him additional stolen base opportunities. An early 2.18 G-F suggests we won't see as much power development as we expected, however Eckstein looks set to produce important BA, SB, and Runs contributions in for his owners, making him someone you should seek to acquire if you expect to need help in those categories.

Baltimore: Gary Matthews, Jr., OF
17/72 for .236/.267/.333 with 0 HR, 9 RBI, 9 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 3:11 BB:K.

Matthews' started slowly, failing to build on last year's impressive breakout and putting him at risk to lose playing time given Baltimore's excess of outfielders and 1B/DH. Fortunately that crowd was thinned by injuries, and he's rebounded to an .867 OPS over the last week thanks to a 2:1 BB:K, yet the overall decrease in his plate discipline certainly worries me. His walk rate is down to .04 after a .12 in 2002 and Hargrove doesn't appear to be calling steals for anyone but Jerry Hairston. We probably have to dial back our expectation for Matthews to nearer $10 than $20 unless he starts running, however you should wait to see how he progresses over the next few weeks before taking any action.

Boston: David Ortiz, 1B
7/34 for .206/.325/.294 with 0 HR, 4 RBI, 4 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 6:6 BB:K.

Although Jeremy Giambi holds a .333 OBP, I suspect his .158 BA and 37% strikeout rate will open more playing time for Ortiz. Of course neither player belongs on the field given the solid play of Kevin Millar, Trot Nixon, and Bill Mueller, but Ortiz's 6:6 BB:K easily could attract the attention of Boston management. While I'm mildly concerned about his 13-10 G-F, this small sample size doesn't provide sufficient data to accurately judge Ortiz's current abilities. The key here is that I suspect most owners see him as no more than roster filler right now, so if you need a decent cornerman or a UT power boost, try to acquire Ortiz, since I expect all his numbers will improve in the near future.

Chicago White Sox: Paul Konerko, 1B
12/61 for .197/.286/.344 with 2 HR, 7 RBI, 7 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 7:8 BB:K.

After averaging a .347/.387/.591 April line over the past three years, Konerko's current performance must qualify as a severe disappointment. While he's demolishing lefties to the tune of a 1.464 OPS in 16 at-bats, his 45 at-bats against right-handers only netted 5 hits and a .329 OPS. Of course his .11 walk rate, 3.84 #P/PA, and 1.10 G-F not only are better than his career marks, but each skill also is superior to those from each of the last two seasons. Even his .81 contact rate is in line with what we expect from Konerko, so look to acquire him from a worried owner to obtain the vast balance of the $20+ value that he should reach by the end of the season.

Cleveland: Matt Lawton, OF
8/55 for .145/.288/.273 with 2 HR, 8 RBI, 6 R, 2/2 SB%,
and an 8:7 BB:K.

Lawton rushed back after major shoulder surgery, and while we can attribute most of his poor stats to his health, his skills also indicate a significant pending rebound. His .14 walk rate, .87 contact rate, 3.71 #P/PA, and 1.59 G-F are all only slightly off his career norms, so although we're worried since April normally is his best month, nothing in his skills suggests anything but immediate improvement in his overall performance. Take advantage of these struggles to try to acquire this potential five-category contributor from his current owner.

Detroit: Dmitri Young, OF
9/56 for .161/.190/.179 with 0 HR, 0 RBI, 2 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 2:14 BB:K.

Though he managed a .706 OPS in 17 AB against the Royals, a .325 mark against the Twins and a .139 OPS versus the White Sox have left Young with some of the worst stats in the game. While his 3.45 #P/PA and 1.77 G-F are near his career norms, his .75 contact rate is 7% below his 2002 mark and roughly a full 10% off his career average. He's only walked a couple less times than expected thus far, but a shocking complete lack of power means Young is posting some atrocious fantasy stats. He should certainly improve in the near future unless he's caught Tony Clark's disease, but his skills also don't suggest the pending improvement that would make him worth your investment. There's no reason not to keep him if you already own him, and as long as you don't give up more than several bucks of projected value, Young should be a good target to acquire since his value still should reach the mid-teens.

Kansas City: Mike Sweeney, 1B
13/51 for .255/.369/.490 with 3 HR, 15 RBI, 8 R, 1/1 SB%,
and an 11:9 BB:K.

Sweeney's 9 RBI last week might endear him to his current owner, however his stats could really jump now that Beltran's back in the lineup. He normally posts a .304 BA in April, putting his current average far below what we expect from him. The problem thus far is a .82 contact rate; Sweeney's never even fallen under .86 in a full year. Since I'm not convinced he'll completely rebound against stronger pitching than he's already faced, you only should wait for Sweeney's development rather than actively seeking him in trade despite a .77 G-F and the logically pending BA spike.

Minnesota: Mike Cuddyer, OF
10/50 for .200/.273/.340 with 1 HR, 1 RBI, 7 R, 1/1 SB%,
and a 5:12 BB:K.

Despite the Twins' need for right-handed power from a source other than Torii Hunter, Bobby Kielty's switch-hitting effectiveness and his 1.087 OPS leave only one lineup slot available for Cuddyer, Matt LeCroy, or Dustan Mohr, and LeCroy holds a definite edge in most stats. Cuddyer's lack of multiple RBI is especially troublesome given the Twins' team-wide OBP problems, causing them to really need solid production from right field. A 1.33 G-F suggests he retains decent power, and his .10 walk rate certainly is acceptable, however neither his .76 contact rate nor 3.33 #P/PA demonstrate much ability to control his at-bats. He's not currently an option in mixed leagues, and if you're planning on contending this season, you should explore a possible deal of Cuddyer to someone more convinced he'll continue starting than myself.

New York Yankees: Jason Giambi, 1B
13/71 for .183/.356/.366 with 4 HR, 11 RBI, 13 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 17:15 BB:K.

The Yankees' loaded offense continues to succeed despite another slow start from Giambi. Of course, essentially all his skills are right in line with last year's marks, particularly his walk rate(.23 '03; .19 '02) and contact rate(.79 '03; .80 '02). He's seeing about .3 #P/PA fewer than in 2002, but I'm not worried since he's only at his 2001 level. The most impressive aspect to his stats is his G-F is down to .50, a rather surprising improvement from his previous career-best .70 mark from a year ago. Giambi easily still should emerge as a primary MVP candidate given his slot in the middle of that lineup, so make every effort to acquire him now before his price skyrockets.

Oakland: Jermaine Dye, OF
13/70 for .186/263/.286 with 1 HR, 6 RBI, 11 R, 0/0 SB%,
and an 8:16 BB:K.

While at least Tejada's producing reasonable power numbers, Dye's similar slow start has left the Athletics with little overall offense from their right-handers. Of course, much of this performance stems from Oakland's early schedule, and a .11 walk rate, 4.14 #P/PA, and .47 G-F all indicate a burgeoning breakout. Even Dye's .77 contact rate is about what we expected. Most of his stats will head upward soon, so look to acquire Dye now.

Seattle: Jeff Cirillo, 3B
7/48 for .146/.241/.250 with 1 HR, 4 RBI, 6 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 5:8 BB:K.

If he holds this spot for another year, we're going to declare Cirillo Mr. April Underachieving Batter. I can't imagine a more effective case for park effects as there's not a huge change in any of Cirillo's skills since he moved to Seattle. His BA problems seem attributable to some erosion in his contact rate, however his double rate seems unchanged, so he's likely losing homers to the friendlier pitching environment. A lack of improvement in any other area leaves him vulnerable to this slump continuing until he switches teams, so you probably should deal or bench Cirillo as no significant rebound appears forthcoming.

Tampa Bay: Carl Crawford, OF
22/99 for .222/.230/.263 with 1 HR, 5 RBI, 11 R, 5/6 SB%,
and a 1:19 BB:K.

Not only is his production barely helping his owners right now, but he also looks set to begin losing at-bats soon even without notable alternatives in the Tampa outfield. His contact rate is down to .81 after last year's already questionable .84 mark and he obviously has displayed little plate discipline. I'm almost more concerned that he's only managed one double and one homer since Crawford needs to combine his impressive speed with a better contact rate and more power if he's to achieve the .600+ OPS likely necessary to insure he'll continue to start. Remain open to rostering alternatives if you can bench him to avoid this continuing BA hit, however particularly in keeper leagues you certainly should wait for him to improve rather than cutting him unless you're in an extremely shallow league.

Texas: Mark Teixeira, 1B/3B
9/52 for .173/283/.327 with 2 HR, 7 RBI, 2 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 6:11 BB:K.

Hope that everything about this troubling start will convince Tex's owners that he'll spend 2003 on the 2002 plan of Hank Blalock. The difference here is that Teixeira's MLEs from 2002 are quite strong, his current skills aren't far from his MLE skills, and both a 3.68 #P/PA and 1.00 G-F indicate he'll produce if given consistent playing time. Unfortunately signing Ruben Sierra looks like one of the dumbest moves of the year, since Showalter seems determined to play Sierra as much as anyone while relegating the top young hitter in baseball to 6 games at first, another half-dozen at third, two at DH, and even one in left. We certainly can understand why Tex is struggling since he neither knows when nor where he'll play, and although he remains a weak play in shallow leagues, try to acquire him in AL-only environments.

Toronto: Orlando Hudson, 2B
11/59 for .186/.258/.271 with 0 HR, 2 RBI, 8 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 6:17 BB:K.

All three of Toronto's sophomore hitters are producing rather disappointing numbers, but Hudson's flailing might result in his benching since Mike Bordick and Dave Berg give the Blue Jays experienced replacements at second base. Manager Carlos Tosca's only allowed six stolen base attempts this year, so Hudson won't provide much speed for his owners in 2003, and a .10 walk rate won't impress anyone in the organization given his paltry five doubles and a contact rate down to .71 after a .86 in 2002. As Toronto already possesses little obvious faith in Hudson, you probably should explore a deal with any owner who will pay a price more commensurate with the $15 value Hudson should reach in the future rather than his current rather miniscule contribution.

We'll continue tomorrow with National League underachieving batters.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Most teams only have competed against three or four opponents since the beginning of the year, so expect the stats of established players in particular soon to move closer to veterans' career norms as they see a wider variety of pitchers.