Today's Fantasy Rx

Please refer to the Tout Wars National League rosters here.

Owner: Scott Wilderman & John Muckler
Site: Rototimes
$ Left: $0.
Split: $184H/$76P = 71/29.
Reserve roster: Luke Hudson, David Cone, Brian Banks, Jayson Durocher, Wayne Franklin, and Armando Almanza.

Nice pick: Brian Giles, $33; Preston Wilson only cost $32, but Giles' batting skills top Wilson in almost every area, and he's a nice bargain at this price.
Top sleeper: Jason Lane, $4; only a Hidalgo injury stands between Lane and double-digit value.
Potential bust: Jim Thome, $31; I don't see him reaching this level without an unlikely fantastic BA, so anything over $30 for Thome seems excessive.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Luke Hudson, although we didn't know about his season-ending injury at the time.
Early bad luck: Antonio Alfonseca, $14, will miss the first few weeks of the season on the DL; Bobby Hill, $9, headed back to Iowa after a bad spring; Pablo Ozuna, $8, lost the Colorado second base job thanks to a sprained knee and will miss at least two months; Jason Middlebrook, $4, couldn't beat out Bacsik, Seo, and Cone for the starting spot in New York; Lane didn't even break camp with Houston; and Durocher will miss no less than a few weeks on the DL.
Category to trade: .

I see a lot to like on this team, from two top outfielders at good prices to a young and talented starting staff. The foundation of this team is a five-man starting corps of a $19 Jason Schmidt, $16 Javier Vazquez, $8 Carlos Zambrano, $7 Jake Peavy, and $6 Adam Eaton; we rather hope they succeed given we've targeted these same pitchers in multiple leagues. Alfonseca's injury leaves them notably short on saves, with only Dollar Days selections of Scott Sullivan and T.J. Tucker likely to help here, but given they should finish solidly in strikeouts, ERA, WHIP, and probably wins, saves shouldn't be a major concern.

Unfortunately they essentially left $15+ on the table thanks to the likelihood that Hill, Ozuna, and Lane won't reach the majors until summer. A team full of BA drains like a $3 Wes Helms and $2 Rod Barajas will leave them hurting at least in one offensive category. While the three $30+ players and a $24 Richie Sexson given them a good power core, I also don't see sufficient contributions of steals or runs. More than 25 points on offense looks very unlikely here.

Summary: Their solid starting pitching should allow them to sneak into the first division, but this team will need some great FAAB pick-ups and an early Hill recall to finish in the money.

Owner: John Mosey
Site: Fantasy Insights
$ Left: $13.
Split: $124H/$123P = 50/50.
Reserve roster: Matt Kinney, Chuck Nagy, Jeff D'Amico, Alex Gonzalez, Chin-Feng Chen, and Ben Diggins.

Nice pick: Alex Gonzalez; R; with 4 HR, 9 RBI, and a 12-for-36 BA to open the season, Mosey snagged a great replacement for an injured $1 Juan Uribe.
Top sleeper: Tom Goodwin, $1; he won't supplant Patterson any time soon but expect another dozen or more steals off the bench.
Potential bust: Sean Burroughs, $13; he hasn't shown the slightest indication of developing power, and any further injury troubles would limit his BA output.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Chin-Feng Chen.
Early bad luck: Robb Nen, $24, leaves Mosey essentially closerless thanks to his DL trip, Javier Valentin, $6, somehow not only isn't starting for Milwaukee but got traded to Tampa, Jay Witasick, $5, lost his chance to close by hitting the DL, and Mike Rivera, $2, failed to win the SD back-up job.
Category to trade: Starting pitching.

I doubt you'll ever see me advising anyone to spend 50% of their budget on pitching, and Mosey's growing save problems increases the dubiousness of this plan. Prior at $26, Millwood at $20, Odalis Perez and Beckett at $16, and Tomko at $10 gives him an incredible wealth of excellent starters, but I'm not even convinced he'll win any pitching category save strikeouts. Nen and Witasick's injuries also mean he might devote extra playing time a $3 Livan Hernandez or reserves Matt Kinney or Jeff D'Amico, and any move along these lines could increase the volatility of his qualitative performance.

The obvious downside of devoting so many resources to pitching is that he only managed to roster six currently undisputed starters on offense. A $9 Hee Seop Choi, and $7 Jeff Liefer aren't bad picks for HR/RBI, and his $5 Mark Grudzielanek looks like a good pick thus far, however spending $5 Daryle Ward, $8 on back-up catcher at best, and $11 on Gabe Kapler leaves him woefully short on at-bats. Mosey runs a severe risk of finishing with less than 20 points on offense.

Summary: Almost no team with this much money allocated to pitching can field enough offense to break out of the second division, and the early problems of Nen and Witasick even might leave Mosey struggling to avoid the basement.

Owner: Ben Brown & Mike Elliot
Site: Rotoradio
$ Left: $0.
Split: $160H/$100P = 62/38.
Reserve roster: Jimmy Haynes, Michel Tejera, Jaret Wright, Rick Ankiel, Jeff Fassero, and Brooks Kieschnick.

Nice pick: Albert Pujols, $35; two incredible debut seasons suggest a much higher ceiling, making $35 a reasonable floor.
Top sleeper: Andy Fox, $6; expecting another 31 steals seems silly, but all Fox requires is consistent playing time to double this price.
Potential bust: Tom Glavine, $14; while expecting another strong April looks logical, changing environments at his age remains risky.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Rick Ankiel.
Early bad luck: Burnett's elbow inflammation could lead to something more serious.
Category to trade: Adding Rueter and Hampton to four starters from $13-16 will produce plenty of excess wins.

Acquiring a minimal amount of power outside of Pujols, a $38 Bobby Abreu, and a $26 Jay Payton could leave this squad hurting in several offensive categories, especially if sleepers like Fox and a $7 Macias don't produce steals. With the offense already relying on players with minimum upside, this pitching staff needs to carry the team. A succession of trades involving any hot starters could provide help in the other categories, but with an $18 Mike Williams the only source of saves, moving more than a couple pitchers will create additional gaps.

Summary: A first division finish looks unlikely barring some superb trades to bolster the offense.

Owner: Charlie Wiegert
Site: CDM Sports
$ Left: $0.
Split: $178H/$82P = 68/32.
Reserve roster: Roberto Kelly, Tim Redding, Orlando Palmeiro, Dan Smith, Ben Howard, and Wily Mo Pena.

Nice pick: Rafael Furcal, $18; nabbing a 40-steal threat for under $20 ranks as a great pick, especially given the upside suggested by Furcal's youth.
Top sleeper: Xavier Nady, $4; all he needs is an everyday job to produce strong quantitative marks.
Potential bust: Edgardo Alfonzo, $23; tied for the most expensive player in this lineup, Alfonso remains an intriguing player, but allocating this much salary to a player with apparently declining power skills could leave the team scrambling for offense.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Roberto Kelly.
Early bad luck: Losing a $10 Joe Thurston to the minors creates problem in this middle infield.
Category to trade: Selecting a team mostly filled with starting position players could produce excess R/RBI.

Although a $23 Armando Benitez provides a nice foundation for the pitching staff, spending money on Elmer Dessens($5) and Jason Jennings($2) makes no sense for a team without a fantastic qualitative foundation. Nor do I see any obvious strikeout or win excess, leaving the team's fortunes to rest on the offense. Perhaps the only good news at the plate is that owning starting catchers Jason LaRue($7) and Javy Lopez($8) will result in strong production from behind the plate. The larger problem is that Wiegart purchased a roster of unproven players mostly near the upper limits of their recommended draft prices. Without any obvious profits here, a season spent in contention looks unlikely.

Summary: Only an unexpected cadre of overachievers will allow anything more than a middle-of-the-pack finish.

Owner: Dave Gawron
Site: CREATiVESPORTS
$ Left: $1.
Split: $193H/$66P = 75/.25
Reserve roster: Kyle Farnsworth, Miguel Batista, Horacio Ramirez, Khalil Greene, Jimmy Journell, and Humberto Cota.

Nice pick: Edgar Renteria, $24; improving skills and an excellent lineup give Renteria the foundation for a career year.
Top sleeper: Oliver Perez, $4; 21-year-old southpaws don't normally strike out 94 batters in 90 innings. Good health and any additional command could make Perez one of the best bargains of the draft.
Potential bust: Danny Bautista, $15; failing to reach 355 at-bats in any of the last three years suggests Bautista won't see the playing time necessary to produce this much value.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Khalil Greene.
Early bad luck: Ryan Jensen($1) hit the DL today.
Category to trade: A wealth of middle-of-the-order hitters gives Gawron plenty of power.

While he potentially overpaid for a few up-and-coming hitters, Gawron bought an offensive foundation of Renteria, a $27 Pat Burrell, $22 Mark Kotsay, $21 Aramis Ramirez, $20 Jose Cruz, Jr., $19 Adrian Beltre, and $17 Sean Casey. All seven of these players appear reasonably priced, and cheap flyers on guys like Endy Chavez, Gregg Zaun, and Todd Hundley intrigue me. I similarly see plenty of upside in a pitching staff that features intriguing options like Perez, a $3 Brett Myers, and Miguel Batista, who generally at least manages a nice WHIP.

Summary: A broad base of young talent with upside, seasoned with a couple of reasonably-priced veterans, makes Gawron a likely contender for first.

Internet Challenge

SP(6)
Randy Johnson: Fri:MIL(W.Franklin)
Pedro Martinez: Fri:BAL(Jas.Johnson)
Curt Schilling: Sat:MIL(M.Kinney)
Matt Morris: Fri:@HOU(B.Moehler)
Roy Oswalt: Sat:STL(J.Simontacchi)
Kevin Millwood: Sat:@CIN(J.Haynes)
Kerry Wood: Sat:PIT(K.Benson)
Jason Schmidt: Sat:LA(K.Brown)

No starts: W.Miller, Halladay, Prior, Beckett, and Ainsworth.

Rarely will we see easier choices from more than six starts. Our three aces, Oswalt, Wood, and Schmidt look solid, while Morris and Millwood each are pitching in two of the three best hitters' parks in the league. The advantages of Oswalt over Morris include both a better salary and the upside of pitching at home versus a road start.

Larry Walker and Preston Wilson will sit in San Diego, and while we hoped to sit Jose Hernandez, the addition of Mike MacDougal and the need to run our top starters leave us a little short on offensive cash. ARod joins our Colorado outfielders on the bench both for salary reasons and the downside of the Rangers spending the weekend in Safeco. Lastly, Ichiro stays benched since Einar Diaz possesses a good arm and he wouldn't alleviate our cap problems.

The primary argument for Vlad over ARod is that the Expos head "home" to Puerto Rico this weekend, and based upon their new stadium's dimensions, deploy every hitter you own on the Expos and Mets while sitting pitchers on those teams.

The Umpire Hunter(17th lg; 711th overall)
Week 2b: April 11-April 13

C	Eli Marrero		580
C	Toby Hall		460
1B	Frank Thomas		920
1B	Josh Phelps		670
2B	Alfonso Soriano		1460
2B	Luis Castillo		1210
3B	Aaron Boone		1010
3B	Aramis Ramirez		820
SS	Nomar Garciaparra	1330
SS	Jose Hernandez		940
OF	Vlad Guerrero		2010
OF	Lance Berkman		1640
OF	Manny Ramirez		1610
OF	Hideki Matsui		750
OF	Austin Kearns		650
OF	Dave Roberts		620
DH	Orlando Cabrera		1030
DH	Aubrey Huff		610

SP	Randy Johnson		2010
SP	Pedro Martinez		1700
SP	Curt Schilling		1610
SP	Roy Oswalt		1280
SP	Kerry Wood		990
SP	Jason Schmidt		790
RP	Scott Williamson	960
RP	Mike MacDougal		750
RP	Matt Anderson		700
RP	Matt Mantei		700

I'll continue tomorrow with the next four teams.

Today's Fantasy Rx: The weather's finally heating up in much of the northern part of the country, so I suspect we only have no more than about another week of pitchers generally holding an advantage. While we've seen some lofty scores in recent days, many games, particularly those in the Midwest or Northeast, haven't reached Coorsian levels. I suspect that will start changing as soon as this weekend, so begin exercising extra care when choosing your pitchers, especially those with uncertain track records.