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March
24th
2003
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
Rotohelp
2003 AL Pitcher Draft Values
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Download the spreadsheet with our complete projected stats for 4x4 and 5x5 leagues here; this file also includes complete AL LPR values as discussed in last weekend's articles.


Below is our projected Draft Value for the 276 American League pitchers whom we expect to see in the majors this season. While we've undoubtedly missed a few dozen players, we've included everyone who we believe has any chance of deserving a nomination in your spring draft.

These Draft Values are intended only for AL-only 12 team leagues, using traditional 4x4 or 5x5 scoring, with $260 of cap space to draft 9 pitchers. We've also moved from a 65/35 hitting/pitching split to a 70/30 split based on the trends we observed last season, as well as data we've compiled this spring from a variety of sources. Based on last year's TQ Stats data, courtesy of Rototimes, we selected a 4.873 ERA and 1.445 WHIP for the baseline values necessary to calculate the Category Dollars in each category.


When I've listed two values, the first is the 4x4 Draft Value and the second is the 5x5 Draft Value.


Top 3 AL Starters: Pedro Martinez, $27/29; Mark Mulder, $24/24; Roy Halladay, $22/23.

Top 3 AL Relievers: Keith Foulke, $32/29; Eddie Guardado, $24/23; Kazuhiro Sasaki $23/21.


Best AL Wins/Ks Sleepers likely to exceed their DV: Johan Santana, $6/6; Rafael Soriano, $5/5; Colby Lewis, $1/2.

Best all-around starting pitcher sleepers: Mark Mulder, $24/24; Jeff Weaver, $18/19; Sidney Ponson, $9/10; Joe Kennedy, $9/10; Esteban Loaiza, $8/9.


Best AL Saves Sleepers: Franklyn German, $8/8; Chad Fox, $8/7; Cliff Politte, $6/6; Juan Acevedo, $5/4.

AL Relievers most likely to exceed 10 vultured Wins: Arthur Rhodes, $11/10; Francisco Rodriguez, $9/9; Ramiro Mendoza, $8/7.

First tier of non-closing relievers with consistently excellent skills: Arthur Rhodes, $11/10; Buddy Groom, $3/2.

Second tier of non-closing relievers with consistently excellent skills: Alan Embree, $7/7; Chad Bradford, $6/5; Ricardo Rincon, $6/5; Cliff Politte, $6/6; Steve Karsay, $4/3.

Top 2003 AL Pitcher Sleeper: Jeff Weaver, $18/19.


Rotohelp.com's 2003 AL Pitcher Projected Draft Values

Pitchers		4x4	5x5
Acevedo, Juan		5	4
Adkins, Jon		-2	-3
Affeldt, Jeremy		1	2
Almonte, Edwin		-2	-3
Almonte, Hector		-1	-2
Anderson, Brian		1	1
Anderson, Jason		-1	-2
Anderson, Matt		20	18
Appier, Kevin		5	6
Arnold, Jason		-1	-2
Arroyo, Bronson		-2	-3
Asencio, Miguel		0	1
Atchison, Scott		-1	-2
Avery, Steve		-2	-4
Baez, Danys		19	17
Baldwin, James		-2	-3
Balfour, Grant		-2	-3
Banks, Willie		-2	-3
Bauer, Rick		1	1
Bell, Rob		1	1
Benoit, Joaquin		0	1
Bere, Jason		-1	1
Bernero, Adam		4	5
Bierbrodt, Nick		-6	-4
Bonderman, Jeremy	-6	-4
Bootcheck, Chris	-2	-3
Bowers, Ced		-3	-4
Bowie, Micah		-1	-2
Boyd, Jason		-2	-3
Bradford, Chad		6	5
Brazelton, Dewon	-1	-1
Buehrle, Mark		15	15
Bukvich, Ryan		1	0
Burba, Dave		-1	-2
Burkett, John		1	2
Cabrera, Jose		-2	-3
Callaway, Mickey	2	2
Carrasco, D.J.		0	0
Carter, Lance		5	4
Castillo, Frank		-1	-2
Choate, Randy		1	0
Clemens, Roger		10	12
Cloude, Ken		0	-1
Colome, Jesus		11	10
Colon, Bartolo		15	15
Contreras, Jose		1	2
Cordero, Francisco	4	4
Cordova, Jorge		-1	-1
Cornejo, Nate		0	2
Creek, Doug		-2	-2
Cressend, Jack		-2	-3
Daal, Omar		0	1
Davey, Tom		-2	-3
Davis, Doug		0	0
Davis, Jason		-7	-6
de la Rosa, Jorge	-2	-3
DeHart, Rick		-2	-3
Donnelly, Brendan	4	3
Douglass, Sean		-2	-3
Drese, Ryan		-2	-2
Driskill, Travis	-1	-2
DuBose, Eric		-2	-3
Eckenstahler, Eric	-2	-3
Elder, Dave		-2	-3
Embree, Alan		7	7
Escobar, Kelvim		19	18
Ferguson, Ian		-2	-3
Fetters, Mike		-1	-2
Fikac, Jeremy		3	2
Fiore, Tony		2	1
Fischer, Rich		-2	-3
Ford, Ben		-2	-3
Fossum, Casey		6	7
Foulke, Keith		32	29
Fox, Chad		8	7
Franklin, Ryan		8	9
Frederick, Kevin	-2	-3
Fultz, Aaron		-2	-2
Garcia, Freddy		13	15
Garcia, Gerardo		-2	-3
Garcia, Mike		-2	-3
Garcia, Reynaldo	-1	-2
Garland, Jon		8	9
George, Chris		-6	-5
German, Franklyn	8	8
Ginter, Matt		-1	-2
Glover, Gary		3	2
Gobble, Jimmy		-2	-3
Gordon, Tom		4	3
Grimsley, Jason		2	2
Groom, Buddy		3	2
Guardado, Eddie		24	22
Halama, John		1	1
Halladay, Roy		22	23
Hammond, Chris		3	2
Harang, Aaron		1	1
Harden, Rich		-1	-2
Harper, Travis		1	1
Harville, Chad		-2	-3
Hasegawa, Shigetoshi	5	4
Hawkins, LaTroy		5	5
Helling, Rick		6	7
Hendrickson, Mark	7	7
Hentgen, Pat		2	1
Hernandez, Adrian	-2	-3
Hernandez, Runelvys	2	4
Herrera, Alex		-2	-3
Hiljus, Erik		-2	-3
Hill, Jeremy		2	1
Hitchcock, Sterling	0	0
Howry, Bob		2	2
Hudson, Tim		17	18
James, Delvin		-1	-2
Johnson, Adam		-3	-4
Johnson, Jason		4	6
Julio, Jorge		17	15
Karsay, Steve		4	3
Kaye, Justin		-2	-3
Kennedy, Joe		9	10
Knotts, Gary		-4	-3
Koch, Billy		22	20
Kolb, Danny		-1	-2
Kozlowski, Ben		-2	-3
Lackey, John		6	7
Larrison, Preston	-2	-3
Ledezma, Wil		0	-1
Lee, Cliff		-4	-4
Lewis, Colby		1	2
Lidle, Cory		12	12
Ligtenberg, Kerry	0	-1
Lilly, Ted		12	13
Linton, Doug		-1	-1
Loaiza, Esteban		8	9
Lohse, Kyle		6	8
Looper, Aaron		-1	-2
Lopez, Albie		2	2
Lopez, Aquilino		4	3
Lopez, Rodrigo		3	5
Loux, Shane		-2	-3
Lowe, Derek		18	18
Lowe, Sean		-2	-3
Lukasiewicz, Mark	-2	-3
Lyon, Brandon		-1	-2
MacDougal, Mike		14	13
Madritsch, Bobby	-1	-2
Mahay, Ron		-2	-3
Maroth, Mike		6	6
Marte, Damaso		6	6
Martinez, Pedro		27	29
Mateo, Julio		0	-1
May, Darrell		0	0
Mays, Joe		4	4
McClung, Seth		-4	-4
Meche, Gil		-5	-4
Mecir, Jim		0	0
Mendoza, Ramiro		8	7
Miadich, Bart		-1	-2
Miller, Justin		0	0
Miller, Trever		-2	-2
Mohler, Mike		-2	-3
Moyer, Jamie		13	14
Mulder, Mark		24	24
Mulholland, Terry	-1	-1
Mullen, Scott		0	-1
Munoz, Arnie		-1	-3
Mussina, Mike		20	21
Myette, Aaron		-2	-2
Nakamura, Michael	-2	-3
Nelson, Jeff		4	3
Neu, Mike		0	-1
Nitkowski, C.J.		-2	-3
Obermueller, Wes	-2	-4
Ortiz, Ramon		13	14
Osting, Jimmy		-2	-3
Osuna, Antonio		3	3
Paniagua, Jose		-1	-2
Park, Chan Ho		6	8
Paronto, Chad		-2	-3
Parque, Jim		-8	-7
Parris, Steve		-3	-2
Patterson, Danny	0	-1
Percival, Troy		22	20
Person, Robert		0	0
Pettitte, Andy		11	12
Phelps, Travis		-1	-2
Phillips, Jason		-2	-3
Pineiro, Joel		10	11
Politte, Cliff		6	6
Ponson, Sidney		9	10
Porzio, Mike		-2	-3
Powell, Jay		-1	-2
Putz, J.J.		-1	-2
Radke, Brad		10	10
Rauch, Jon		-1	-2
Reed, Rick		5	6
Reyes, Al		-2	-3
Rhodes, Arthur		11	10
Riggan, Jerrod		-2	-3
Rincon, Juan		-2	-3
Rincon, Ricardo		6	5
Riske, David		0	0
Rivera, Mariano		20	18
Roberts, Willis		1	1
Robertson, Nate		-2	-3
Rodney, Fernando	2	1
Rodriguez, Francisco	9	9
Rodriguez, Ricardo	-6	-5
Rodriguez, Rich		-1	-2
Rogers, Kenny		3	4
Romero, J.C.		4	4
Roney, Matt		-3	-3
Rupe, Ryan		0	-1
Ryan, B.J.		1	1
Sabathia, C.C.		9	9
Sadler, Carl		-1	-2
Sanders, David		-2	-3
Santana, Johan		6	6
Santiago, Jose		-2	-2
Sasaki, Kazuhiro	23	21
Schoeneweis, Scott	3	3
Seanez, Rudy		0	-1
Seay, Bobby		-1	-1
Sedlacek, Shawn		-1	-1
Sele, Aaron		0	0
Shibilo, Andy		-1	-3
Shields, Scot		4	3
Shiell, Jason		-2	-3
Shouse, Brian		-2	-4
Simpson, Allan		-2	-3
Smith, Mike		-1	-2
Smith, Roy		-1	-2
Snyder, Kyle		-5	-5
Soriano, Rafael		5	5
Sosa, Jorge		1	0
Sparks, Steve		-2	-2
Standridge, Jason	-2	-2
Stephens, John		1	1
Stewart, Josh		-2	-2
Sturtze, Tanyon		-1	0
Tallet, Brian		-2	-2
Tam, Jeff		1	0
Taylor, Aaron		-1	-2
Thomas, Brad		-2	-3
Thomson, John		6	7
Thurman, Corey		-2	-3
Thurman, Mike		-2	-3
Timlin, Mike		4	3
Traber, Billy		-1	-1
Turnbow, Derrick	-2	-3
Urbina, Ugueth		21	19
Valdes, Ismael		8	8
Valentine, Joe		-2	-3
Van Hekken, Andy	1	1
Van Poppel, Todd	0	0
Voyles, Brad		-2	-3
Wakefield, Tim		13	14
Walker, Jamie		2	2
Walker, Pete		2	2
Washburn, Jarrod	10	11
Weaver, Jeff		18	19
Weber, Ben		3	2
Wells, David		7	7
Westbrook, Jake		-1	-1
White, Matt		0	-2
White, Rick		3	2
Wiggins, Scott		-2	-3
Wilson, Kris		-3	-3
Wohlers, Mark		0	-1
Woodard, Steve		-2	-3
Wright, Danny		8	10
Wunsch, Kelly		2	1
Yan, Esteban		1	1
Yarnall, Ed		-1	-2
Zambrano, Victor	4	6
Zimmerman, Jeff		0	-1
Zito, Barry		18	19


Please feel free to write in with your questions and comments.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Unlike 2002, when young lefties Ted Lilly, Casey Fossum, and J.C. Romero seemed poised to emerge into more significant roles, I don't see quite the same upside in young AL middle relievers this Spring Training. Billy Traber and Johan Santana are your best bets here, although Santana may be overpriced since he's received significant publicity as a sleeper. Traber is the guy to watch since he's extremely likely to break camp in the Indians' bullpen despite possessing a minor league track record that indicates he's the most prepared Cleveland prospect for a starting role. He's worth a gamble of a couple bucks, particularly in keeper leagues where you could see a double-digit profit by 2005.


Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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