Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Relief Pitchers with DV of $-2

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
2002 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2002.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 65/35 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2002 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2002 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season. Pitchers who started half or more of their major league games in 2002 are listed with starters.

87.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Manny Aybar		1	0	2.51	1.33	11	3	16	14.1
SF Giants		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-3
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	-3		-4

He flashes intriguing talent in the minors every year before normally struggling in the majors, so I'm a little surprised he finally managed an ERA under 4.24 over even fourteen innings. At AAA Fresno(PCL), Aybar compiled 24 Saves and a 3.75 ERA on a 53:18 K:BB in 50.1 IP with 46 H and 6 HR over 45 appearances, so his success in a friendly pitchers' park isn't wholely unsupported. However there's no compelling reason for us to expect Aybar will expand upon his 2002 effectiveness if given a bigger role with the Diamondbacks, so I wouldn't roster him unless he's holding good skills after a few weeks in the majors.

88.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Pat Strange		0	0	1.13	0.88	4	1	6	8
NY Mets		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-3
2002 Age: 22	5x5:	-3		-5

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of New York (N) Prospects for comments on Strange.

89.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Joe Nathan		0	0	0.00	0.27	2	0	1	3.2
SF Giants		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-3				R
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	-3		-5				R

Nathan stagnated quite badly after San Francisco rushed him to the majors in 2000, and over the last two seasons he's compiled a 132:148 K:BB in 226.2 IP split between over half of the Giants' affiliates. So while he looks mostly recovered from his arm problems two years ago, he still only managed a 6-12 record and 5.60 ERA on a 117:74 K:BB in 146.1 IP with 167 H and 20 HR at AAA Fresno(PCL) this season. Do not draft or roster him until we see noticeable improvement in his skills, especially since I see no indication that Nathan will return to any reasonable level of effectiveness without converting to relief.

90.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jose Rijo		5	0	5.14	1.42	38	20	89	77
CIN Reds		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-3		-5
2002 Age: 37	5x5:	-2		-4		-5		R

Unfortunately Rijo's performance this season appears much more commensurate with his current skill level than the 2.12 ERA he managed in 13 appearances in 2001. Not only does his lack of dominance indicate little upside, but a 1.5 HR/9 also suggests considerable downside. Cincinnati camp remains quite crowded this season, and while Rijo might see some time in the majors due to the lack of more than a couple veteran relievers on the Reds, I doubt he'll pitch effectively on any consistent basis.

91.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jim Mann		0	0	4.09	1.18	19	7	19	22
HOU Astros		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-3
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	-3		-5

Although Mann's obviously ready for an extended look in the majors after this performance and a 110:25 K:BB in 102.2 IP with 85 H and 13 HR over 86 appearances between the last two seasons at AAA New Orleans(PCL), I don't expect he'll receive that opportunity this year. Pittsburgh claimed him on waivers from Houston and successfully outrighted him, placing him in competition with 9 other NRIs with significantly more Major League experience, not to mention the 16 pitchers on the 40-man who merit roster spots. Feel free to use Mann when he's available if his minor league numbers stay near his previous marks, however he's worth nothing to fantasy owners at the moment.

92.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Luther Hackman		5	0	4.11	1.59	46	39	90	81
STL Cardinals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-3		-2
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	-2		-4		-2

Ignore any commentary you see regarding Hackman's upside as a member of the Padres' pen. Over the last three seasons he's displayed little skill in a rotation, posting a 5.40 ERA on a 17:12 K:BB in 25 IP over 6 starts, or as a reliever, compiling a 4.01 ERA on a 53:45 K:BB in 94.1 IP over 73 G. He never managed more than decent command in the minors, and without any indication of pending dominance development, I see little upside here and therefore no reason ever to roster him.

93.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jonathan Johnson		1	0	4.11	1.30	21	5	15	15.1
SD Padres		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-4
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	-3		-5

The 7th overall pick of the 1995 draft, Johnson's never displayed more than fleeting command and his inconsistent effectiveness leaves his big league future in doubt now that he's no longer with the Rangers. His 44:16 K:BB in 55 IP between AAA Tucson(PCL) and AAA Portland(PCL) indicates he still possesses some upside, however he needs to find an organization committed to leaving him in the bullpen. Though Houston probably won't give him many opportunities in the majors this year, the Astros also don't possess extraordinary depth, and they've shown the willingness to give chances to minor league vets like Pete Munro and Alan Zinter. Make sure he's dominating AAA before rostering him, however I expect he'll spend a few seasons in someone's bullpen within the next several years.

94.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Matt DeWitt		0	0	1.23	1.23	5	3	6	7.1
SD Padres		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-4
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	-3		-5

DeWitt missed nearly the entire season after shoulder surgery, and I doubt we'll see him in the majors this year since he doesn't even appear in anyone's camp right now. As he also currently doesn't own more than marginal AAAA credentials, hopefully he'll spend this season regaining his health in the minors before competing for a bullpen spot somewhere next spring.

95.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
T.J. Mathews		0	0	3.44	1.31	13	5	19	18.1
HOU Astros		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-4		1
2002 Age: 32	5x5:	-3		-5		0

As he's neither in camp this spring nor displayed consistent effectiveness in a few seasons, Mathews likely shouldn't belong on anyone's fantasy roster this season. I don't believe you should pay any attention to him until he holds decent skills for a few months while remaining healthy at AAA since he hasn't pitched in more than 20 games at any one team over the last couple years.

96.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Brian Fuentes		2	0	4.73	1.43	38	13	25	26.2
COL Rockies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-2		-4
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	-2		-4

Colorado netted a very promising pitcher when they grabbed Fuentes in the Cirillo deal. After his 61:32 K:BB in 48.2 IP with 44 H and 0 HR over 41 games at AAA Colorado Springs(PCL) and a Major League performance that included a 12.8 K/9, I expect Fuentes to remain the Rockies' primary lefty reliever for a couple years. However he also posted a reverse platoon split where he allowed a 1.147 OPS from left-handers while limiting righties to a .474 mark, and since he also registered a .76 G-F last year, I don't believe he belongs any anyone's fantasy team this season unless you don't count any qualitative categories.

97.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Victor Alvarez		0	0	4.35	1.06	7	2	9	10.1
LA Dodgers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-2		-4
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	-3		-6

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Los Angeles Prospects for comments on Alvarez.

98.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jeff Fassero		8	0	5.35	1.57	56	27	81	69
CHC/STL		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-2		-4		4		1
2002 Age: 39	5x5:	-2		-4		4		6

Fassero still seems capable of helping the Cardinals even after turning 40 in January. His 7.3 K:BB and 2.32 G-F would be assets anywhere, and the great defense in St. Louis merely limits his downside. However he's no longer a dominant pitcher, so while you could employ him for brief stretches as necessary, Fassero doesn't possess the upside of someone you should target. The recent rumors regarding his willingness to start merely adds to my concern regarding his future fantasy value.

99.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Hector Mercado		2	0	4.62	1.46	40	25	32	39
PHI Phillies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-2		-4
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	-2		-4

As I believe Mercado's out of options, the return of Dan Plesac leaves Mercado in a precarious situation; I only see one spot on the Philly staff even in question, and Mercado would need to outperform Joe Roa, Mike Fyhrie, Eric Junge, and everyone competing for the 5th OF spot. Fortunately his 1.62 ERA on a 43:12 K:BB in 33.1 IP with 22 H and 2 HR over 26 G at AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre(IL) indicates intriguing upside, and allowing a .505 OPS against lefties last season gives him immediate value as a specialist. So even though he fits best as insurance for Plesac and Rheal Cormier, I suspect someone would claim him off waivers. Mercado looks ready to succeed in the majors, however I also wouldn't risk rostering him until he demonstrated solid command for a dozen or more innings.

100.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mike Matthews		2	0	3.94	1.58	34	29	43	45.2
STL/MIL		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-2		-4		3		R
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	-3		-5		3		R

Matthews enters Spring Training as the logical replacement for Ray King as one of the Brewers' two lefty relievers. I'm not overly impressed by his skills since reaching the majors in 2000, however I see significant value in him as a specialist since he's held lefties to a .506 OPS, compared to an .867 mark versus right-handers. While he's pitched better in his brief visits to the rotation in St. Louis, this platoon split seemingly leaves him more valuable in middle relief, even though he improves in longer outings. Of course you don't really need to worry about these conundrums as he currently holds little value for roto owners given the Brewers' troubled offense and defense. I don't envision Matthews reaching positive PDV in the foreseeable future without a rather abrupt improvement in his skill or location.

101.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Brandon Puffer		3	0	4.43	1.52	48	38	67	69
HOU Astros		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-4
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	-2		-4

While I don't know why four organizations have let Puffer depart their ranks over the last several years, I think he'll remain with Houston for the foreseeable future. He dominated in 2001 at AA Round Rock(EL), compiling an outstanding 2.07 ERA on an 91:35 K:BB in 82.2 IP with 52 H and 4 HR over 56 appearances, and he debuted last year after a 13:4 K:BB in 15 IP with 8 H and 1 HR over 11 G at AAA New Orleans(PCL). Puffer will spend this spring competing against several of his former minor league teammates for three or four available spots in the Astros' pen. Since he's on the 40-man roster and pitched reasonably effectively in 2002, he looks like one of the favorites to break camp with Houston to me. Unfortunately, despite his excellent minor league numbers and a very favorable 1.92 G-F, neither his 6.3 K/9 nor a 5.0 BB/9 suggests he's worth the risk of rostering as long as he pitches in Houston. I suspect he'll emerge as a usable option with the next couple years, but I certainly wouldn't draft him in 2003.

102.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Matt Mantei		2	0	4.73	1.50	26	12	28	26.2
ARI Diamondbacks		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-4		1		3
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	-3		-5		0		1

Byung-Hyun Kim's long-awaited rotation audition returns Mantei to his former role as Arizona's closer. While you should exercise some caution in considering him due to his seemingly perennial health problems, his 2002 numbers indicate he only needs to avoid injury to succeed in racking plenty of saves. He never posted a strikeout rate below 10.1 K/9 until last season, so his 8.8 mark should rebound, and this level of dominance somewhat negates the downside of a .62 G-F. Consequently, although I don't expect considerable qualitative help from him, Mantei should save at least two-dozen games, and he could reach $20 or more if his arm remains intact.

103.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jason Pearson		0	0	0.00	0.60	3	0	1	1.2
SD Padres		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-2		-4
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	-4		-6

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of San Francisco Prospects for comments on Pearson.

104.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jason Kershner		0	1	4.88	1.42	18	14	20	24
SD/TOR		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-2		-4
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	-3		-5

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Toronto Prospects for comments on Kershner.

105.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jose Silva		1	0	4.24	1.50	6	10	25	23.1
CIN Reds		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-4		-3
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	-4		-6		-3

Silva joined one of the more crowded bullpen pictures in all of baseball by signing with Oakland. I only see two or three open bullpen spots on the Athletics for no less than a half dozen pitchers who all belong in the majors. As Silva signed a minor league deal, I doubt will see him for more than a few innings even if he avoids the DL for only the second season since 1994. He still possesses intriguing long-term upside as a reliever, but he won't merit rostering until he finds a set role and remains healthy while pitching effectively for a few weeks in the majors.

106.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Bryan Corey		0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	1
LA Dodgers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-4
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	-4		-6

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Los Angeles Prospects for comments on Corey.

107.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jae Weong Seo		0	0	0.00	0.00	1	0	0	1
NY Mets		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-4
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	-4		-6

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of New York (N) Prospects for comments on Seo.

50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '03 continues tomorrow with more National League relievers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Aside from Matt Mantei, I don't see a single pitcher listed above worth targeting this spring. Even the more talented minor leaguers face significant competition to earn roster spots, and since nobody possesses an overly dynamic upside, I wouldn't even spend low Ultra or minor league pick on guys like Strange and Seo.