Today's Fantasy Rx

American League Relief Pitchers with DV from $10 to $15

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
2002 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2002.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 65/35 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2002 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2002 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season. Pitchers who started half or more of their major league games in 2002 are listed with starters.

11.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Roberto Hernandez		1	26	4.41	1.45	38	12	62	51
KC Royals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	14		21		21		18
2002 Age: 37	5x5:	13		18		18		15

We were relatively pleased Hernandez's performance once healthy in 2002 and believed he'd remain a closer for another season or two despite him rapidly approaching his forties. However signing with Atlanta should end his career at the back end of a pen since we don't expect further arm problems from Smoltz. I doubt Hernandez will reach this level of value again, but he could approach $10 given his mostly decent skill set and Atlanta's recent magic in converting decent relievers into dominating firemen. Hernandez's 1.78 G-F and 2.1 BB/9 both were much better than his career norms, and I see little wrong with his 6.8 K/9 and 1.0 HR/9. The biggest problem here is a 10.8 hit rate, and now he's moved from the 25th best defensive team in the game to the third best. I'll be happy to draft Hernandez for a couple bucks since he should earn a nice profit, and if Smoltz does hit the DL, Hernandez is the logical recipient of any save opportunities after the departures of Remlinger, Hammond, Ligtenberg, and Spooneybarger.

12.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Keith Foulke		2	11	2.90	1.00	58	13	65	77.2
CH White Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	13		19		33		32
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	12		17		30		31

Jerry Manuel failed Keith Foulke and the White Sox by moving Foulke from his customary closer role as only four AL relievers contributed more qualitative support to fantasy teams in 2002 than Foulke, suggesting that he remained extremely effective despite his early season slump. He finished in the middle of the top 30 MLB relievers while Billy Koch failed to qualify for that list, yet Kenny Williams still allowed Billy Beane to swipe Foulke with a solid backup catcher and relief prospect while "upgrading" to Billy Koch. The only real concern with Foulke's performance is that his strikeout rate dropped for the third straight season, falling to 6.7 K/9 only a couple years after he posted a 10.5. His 1.04 G-F was his best mark since his 1997 debut, and a 1.5 BB/9 was easily his career-best control ratio. I won't be slightly surprised if Foulke maintains his Eck-like pace of the second half and builds upon his .74 ERA, which was supported by a 27:3 K:BB in 36.2 IP with 25 H and 2 HR, especially since his new team owns a better offense, defense, and pitching staff than Chicago while they play in a better park. Foulke likely will rank as the top pitcher in the AL in 4x4 leagues in 2003, and he'll finish among the top few hurlers in 5x5 leagues..

13.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Esteban Yan		7	19	4.30	1.43	53	29	70	69
TB Devil Rays		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	12		18		20		20
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	12		17		19		20

The vast majority of Yan's value derived from his quantitative contribution, and while he should win over a half-dozen games as a Rangers' middle relievers thanks to a likely rebound from their offense, he'll lose around $10 in saves alone. His G-F dropped from a career-best 1.42 to a 1.06, a bit below his career norm, even a his strikeout rate fell from 9.2 to 6.9 K/9 and his walk rate jumped from 1.6 to 3.8 BB/9. Yan's biggest problem was that he allowed a .914 OPS from lefties even while holding right-handers to a .627 OPS. However he also somehow rebounded in the second half, posting a 3.60 ERA on a 35:14 K:BB in 35 IP with 30 H and 5 HR after a disastrous 5.03 ERA on an 18:15 K:BB in 34 IP before the break. Unfortunately his general inconsistency keep me from expecting him to maintain his second-half pace, making anything above a few bucks for Yan seem unnecessarily risky.

14.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Arthur Rhodes		10	2	2.33	0.83	81	13	45	69.2
SEA Mariners		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	12		18		12		7
2002 Age: 32	5x5:	12		17		12		7

I'm particularly proud that we nailed this projection as we saw several middle relievers reach double-digit value this year, however Rhodes was the only AL reliever above $10 who didn't start at all or save more than a couple games. Most of Rhodes' 2002 skills remained nearly identical to his 2002 marks, and the sole exception was his G-F ratio, which improved from a 1.22 G-F to a career-best 1.40. While he held lefties to an obscene .418 OPS on a 41:3 K:BB, Rhodes also limited right-handers to a .579 OPS on a still-solid 40:10 K:BB. Thanks to Sasaki's arm troubles and subsequent surgery Rhodes might even spend some time closing in 2003, making me more likely to expect he'll reach $20 than fall below $10. Rhodes a good buy anywhere in single digits.

15.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Steve Karsay		6	12	3.26	1.32	65	30	87	88.1
NY Yankees		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	12		17		4		7
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	11		16		5		5

The departures of Stanton and Mendoza make Steve Karsay the key component of New York's pen in 2003 as the only returning veteran set-up man. Unfortunately he's recovering from off-season back surgery and will barely be ready to start the regular season on time, so he's unlikely to regain his dominating form from past years. I also don't envision him saving more than a half-dozen games, leaving his projected value right around $10. Karsay still owns one of the better skill sets of any middle reliever in baseball, yet problems in both his strikeout and walk rates, coupled with his current injury, make any bids approaching double-digits look rather risky right now.

16.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Ben Weber		7	7	2.54	1.18	43	22	70	78
ANA Angels		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	12		17		1
2002 Age: 32	5x5:	10		15		0

Weber is far less likely to repeat his 2002 stats than any other Anaheim reliever, although he clearly will remain in a vital middle relief role between the starters and late-inning trio of Donnelly, KRod, and Percival. I don't envision him saving any games this season given how Mike Scioscia used him in the post-season, but only a weak 5.0 K/9 keeps me from strongly recommending Weber. His 3.66 G-F is fantastic and among the best ratios in the game, and a 2.5 BB/9 demonstrates solid control. I wouldn't bid more than a few dollars for Weber since I don't see significant upside here, however hopefully the massive post-season exposure of Anaheim's late-inning relief corps will allow you grab Weber for a buck or two.

17.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Bob Wickman		1	20	4.46	1.51	36	10	42	34.1
CLE Indians		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	11		15		22		21
2002 Age: 33	5x5:	9		13		19		23

Wickman is signed through 2004, so while he'll likely miss all of 2003, he offers an intriguing option to owners in keeper leagues. Aside from the damage inflicted by the worst defense in the majors and slight concern thanks to his career-worst 1.86 G-F, I see nothing else even marginally wrong with Wickman's skills. He should earn $20+ next season, making him an excellent late-draft steal for a few bucks as long as you can stash him on reserve for a year.

18.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Francisco Cordero		2	10	1.79	1.01	41	13	33	45.1
TEX Rangers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	11		15		-2
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	9		13		-3		R

Like Wickman, the upside of drafting Cordero lies in his long-term upside for keeper leagues. Ugueth Urbina will close in 2003 for Texas, and Jeff Zimmerman likely will see most save opportunities once he returns from injury. However some time in either 2004 or 2005, Cordero should emerge as an excellent closer for Texas. He finally appears healthy, and after posting nearly perfect across-the-board skills last year, he should earn around $10 for a season or two before at least doubling his value once closing. Jump at Cordero anywhere in the low-to-mid single digits, and anyone in keeper leagues should even stay in bidding near $10 since you're unlikely to see a loss and could wind up with significant future profits.

19.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Damaso Marte		1	10	2.83	1.03	72	18	44	60.1
CH White Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	10		15
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	10		14

While trading Matt Guerrier for Marte looked mildly questionable back in April as Pittburgh looked likely to waive Marte, I saw nothing wrong in securing the services of one of the more promising young relievers in the game. Marte rewarded the Sox with an unexpectedly fantastic season as he even wind up as a co-closer for an extended stretch. Even though he maintained roughly the same command he displayed a year ago for the Pirates, he also increased his G-F from .71 to 1.27 and received better defensive support. Now Marte loses roughly half his value with Billy Koch installed as the undisputed closer, but since he absolutely dominates lefties and saw significant success against right-handers, Marte should remain one of the more valuable middle relievers in the league. He's a good buy anywhere under $5, and he shouldn't hurt you up to around $7 or $8.

20.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
LaTroy Hawkins		6	0	2.13	0.97	63	15	63	80.1
MIN Twins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	10		15		-8		1
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	10		14		-7		1

Hawkins' rebound from one of the worst pitchers in baseball to one of the top 20 relievers in the game ranks as one of the more amazing comebacks of 2002. However he'd hinted at this potential both in 1996 while starting at AAA Salt Lake and in 2000 when he first started closing. The only truly shocking part of this performance is that he posted an abhorrent 36:39 K:BB in 2001, so we have no idea if he can maintain his level of effectiveness. He looks more likely to echo his second-half numbers of a 3.33 ERA on a 19:7 K:BB in 27 IP with 25 H and 1 HR over a full season, which would roughly leave his 2002 value roughly halved.

21.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Antonio Osuna		8	11	3.86	1.36	66	28	64	67.2
CH White Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	10		14		2		R
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	10		14		2

Osuna earned the closer-of-the-future label a half decade ago yet never even exceeded a half dozen saves until 2002. While he compiled decent stats last season, I also don't see any indicators of future greatness as a 3.7 BB/9 and a .89 G-F limit the upside suggested by an 8.8 K/9. He also won't see many save opportunities now that he's joined the Yankees, so bidding more than a couple bucks on Osuna seems unwise as I don't expect him to even approach double-digit value this year.

22.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
J.C. Romero		9	1	1.89	1.21	76	36	62	81
MIN Twins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:S	4x4:	10		14		-1		1
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	10		14		0

I actually expected Romero to follow fellow lefty relievers like Ted Lilly, Damian Moss, and Casey Fossum into the rotation, but Minnesota's willingness to embrace a left-handed closer and lack of high-upside right-handed relievers keeps Romero's future anchored in the bullpen. While Romero slipped from a 48:17 K:BB in 48 IP in the first half to a 28:19 K:BB in 33 IP after the break, I believe most of his control problems were due to fatigue. Hopefully he grew accustomed to pitching in several dozen games rather than starting about thirty and will maintain his skills in 2003, since even though he'll likely regress in some areas, his skills could notably slip and he'd still earn several bucks of value. Romero also looks like the logical candidate to close for the Twins in 2004 with Guardado likely leaving in free agency, making Romero a solid buy anywhere below the upper single digits and a decent selection in keeper leagues even around $10.

50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '03 continues tomorrow with more American League relievers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Eight of today's pitchers earned a profit of five dollars or more, and the appearances of Rhodes, Karsay, Marte, and Osuna don't surprise me at all given their normally solid skills. Weber is here due mostly to his save opportunities in Anaheim, however Hawkins and Romero in particular demonstrated excellent skills in April and maintained those abilities for most of the season. Both should remain in the $5+ range for the indefinite future, yet I doubt either will go for more than a couple bucks in most leagues. The inconsistency of the Twins' starters will keep their better relievers earning more than comparable player on many teams. Romero also looks likely to pick up save opportunities as soon as this August thanks to the logical reluctance of Minnesota to pay him market value.