Today's Fantasy Rx

While we're still compiling data to finish a few of the LPR articles, we finally completed a couple of older columns. NL catchers from November 21st and November 22nd are now available, as well as the first day of NL 1st Baseman and the first day of AL Outfielders.

National League Starting Pitchers with DV from $0 to $-2

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
2002 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2002.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 65/35 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2002 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2002 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season. Pitchers who started half or more of their major league games in 2002 are listed with starters.

59.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Brian Meadows		1	0	3.88	1.21	31	14	62	62.2
PIT Pirates		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	0		0
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	0		-1

Meadows' 3.88 ERA was the highest he'd posted at any level in any year since leaving A-ball in 1996, and the odds of him repeating his performance appear rather remote. However his 4.5 K/9 almost matched his career high, and his 2.0 BB/9, 1.0 HR/9, and 8.9 H/9 were the best marks of his career. These number are a definite surprised after an unimpressive 4.27 ERA on a 98:26 K:BB in 126.1 IP over 22 G(23G) with 132 H and 15 HR at AAA Nashville(PCL), and I suspect at least his home rate run will increase in 2003. Yet I see enough improvement here to believe that he could earn Positive Draft Value; his main obstacle is the significant competition acquired by the Pirates this offseason. He looks unlikely to break camp with the team given the signing of Jeffs Suppan and D'Amico, and he's not a safe gamble as a reserve pick in any league.

60.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
John Patterson		2	0	3.23	1.11	31	7	27	30.2
ARI Diamondbacks		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	0		0
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	0		-1

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Arizona Prospects for comments on Patterson.

61.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Glendon Rusch		10	0	4.70	1.44	140	76	227	210.2
MIL Brewers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	0		-1		10		8
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	2		3		11		9

Nearly the entire Brewers' rotation disappointed us last year, but Rusch's problems hurt us the most as we owned him in a few leagues. Somehow he allowed a hit less per game despite leaving the Mets for Milwaukee, so he mainly suffered due to walking an additional batter while striking out two fewer opponents each game; strikeout rates shouldn't plummet from 7.8 K/9 to 5.9 K/9. His performance is even more confounding since his G-F increased from a 1.11 to a career-bet 1.57 even as his homer rate nudged slightly upward to 1.3 HR/9. Essentially he received little defensive support in the first half and his command suffered towards the end of the year as he reached 210 innings, a career high by 20 IP. Blow-ups in May and July prevented his ERA from finishing closer to 4.00, and he could find significant success by increasing his consistency. He should push double-digit value in 2003.

62.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jake Peavy		6	0	4.52	1.42	90	33	106	97.2
SD Padres		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	0		-1				1
2002 Age: 21	5x5:	1		0				R

Peavy looked like one of the best pitching prospects in baseball at the beginning of 2002, and he definitely earned a promotion after posting a 2.80 ERA on 89:30 K:BB in 80.1 IP with 65 H and 4 HR at AA Mobile(SL). Of course most teams would have sent him to AAA, but the Padres apparently didn't like their pitching coach at Portland given the number of starters that skipped straight to San Diego. I'm quite impressed that Peavy posted a better walk rate in the majors than in the minors, and his 1.0 HR/9 seems a little high given his 1.26 G-F; plus, the worst defense in the NL caused most of his 9.8 hit rate. However he posted a couple of wild platoon splits, allowing a .951 OPS against left-handers while holding righties to a .563 OPS. He pitched as good as anyone in baseball by compiling a 2.56 ERA on 44:8 K:BB in 45.2 IP with 36 H and one lonely homer in 7 starts at Qualcomm, but then two starts in Arizona and a game each in Kansas City and Montreal led to a 6.23 road ERA. Considering he should have spent the second half at AAA instead of the majors, I'm inclined to believe he'll pitch more effectively on the road and against left-hander in 2003. Since he's a groundball pitcher unlike fellow young guns Prior and Beckett, Peavy may be the best sophomore to own in the majors. We'll strongly consider him in Challenge leagues at least for his home starts, and he could earn anywhere between $5 and $20 depending on how quickly he addresses his deficiencies; any bid in single digits looks good to me, though I might go to the low teens in deep keeper leagues.

63.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Salomon Torres		2	0	2.70	1.37	12	13	28	30
PIT Pirates		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	0		-1
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	-2		-3				R

I never expected to write about Torres on this site since he hadn't pitched in North America since 1997; he technically retired back in August of '97 and only unretired this year. Yet somehow his arm looks healed a decade after the ridiculous abuse he suffered in the early 90s, and his 8-5 record and 3.83 ERA on a 136:39 K:BB in 162.1 IP over 24 GS(26G) with 169 H and 12 HR at AAA Nashville(PCL) indicates he can contribute in the majors. Unfortunately, even though he finished the year in the Pirates' rotation, Torres should suffer Brian Meadows' fate and wind up back in the minors following the signings of Jeffs Suppan and D'Amico. His command problems suggest he needs another few months reacquainting himself with the game before he'll be ready for either the majors or a roster spot in most fantasy leagues.

64.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Kurt Ainsworth		1	0	2.10	1.32	15	12	22	25.2
SF Giants		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-1		-1		9		1
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	-2		-3		10		3

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of San Francisco Prospects for comments on Ainsworth.

65.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Brett Myers		4	0	4.25	1.42	34	29	73	72
PHI Phillies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-1		-1				R
2002 Age: 22	5x5:	-1		-2				1

Watching him debut in Chicago against Mark Prior from a few rows behind the Phillies' dugout was a neat experience, yet I didn't see the same potential Prior displayed. Myers is still very raw and his 6.8 K/9 in 19 AAA starts suggested he'd struggle with something like his 4.3 K/9 once in the majors. The one saving grace here is a 1.72 G-F, so even if he doesn't dominate hitter and suffers from further command problems, he's unlikely to kill your ERA. The offensive improvement of Philadelphia also makes Myers a candidate for a dozen wins, and I can see him approaching double-digit value even without much skill development. However I'm not positive his rotation spot is secure regardless of his performance, making him a risky pick above the mid-single digits.

66.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Wayne Franklin		2	0	2.63	1.38	17	17	16	24
MIL Brewers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-1		-2
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	-2		-3

I think Franklin's more likely to match his qualitative stats in a full season of work than to hold a 6.4 walk rate. Houston converted him to a starter last year at AAA New Orleans(PCL), where he compiled a 13-9 record and 3.12 ERA on a 141:56 K:BB in 179 IP with 153 H and 14 HR over 27 GS(29G). They likely made the move since Franklin demonstrated no platoon split in the major, and he didn't pitch too effectively against anyone while in relief despite good minor league numbers. However he owns a career .84 G-F, and Milwaukee will give him little offensive or defensive support, indicating you shouldn't select him even if he breaks camp in the rotation, although I'll happily recommend him during the season if he finally displays good skills.

67.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Kevin Jarvis		2	0	4.37	1.31	24	10	36	35
SD Padres		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:L	4x4:	-1		-3		10		2
2002 Age: 33	5x5:	-2		-4		10		2

San Diego looks remarkably dumb for giving him 9 million over three years rather than non-tender him a season ago, especially since he missed almost the entire season with elbow surgery; they wisely dealt Brett Tomko this winter rather than risk a similar disaster. Fortunately Jarvis should return by mid-spring, and he'll resume his starting spot until the Padres find someone willing to absorb the last year-and-a-half and $6.25M on his contract. He shouldn't pitch badly once healthy, but given his injury, growing G-F problem, and the Padres' questionable offense and defense, there's no reason for you to draft Jarvis.

68.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Alan Benes		2	0	4.35	1.37	32	12	42	39.1
CH Cubs		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-3
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	-2		-4

Benes only avoided non-tendering in Chicago because he played for GM Jim Hendry at Creighton University a decade ago. I don't see any place for him on the Cubs' roster barring a meltdown by Carlos Zambrano and a couple relievers in the spring, and his 85:53 K:BB in 111 IP for a 5.65 ERA at AAA Iowa(PCL) is a better indicator of his effectiveness than his admittedly impressive command in seven big league starts. A .58 G-F suggests significant downside in his .7 homer rate, and while he's capable of reemerging as a solid pitcher, I don't expect much fantasy help from him in 2003. Don't draft him, although he might offer some value as midseason roster filler.

69.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Carlos E. Hernandez		7	0	4.38	1.56	93	61	112	111
HOU Astros		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:S	4x4:	-2		-3		1		3
2002 Age: 22	5x5:	-1		-1		4		5

Only Hernandez's 5.0 BB/9 indicated he might struggle in 2003, and I expected him to break camp in the rotation until Houston re-signed Shane Reynolds and added Brian Moehler. However the nerve problem and rotator cuff tendinitis that kept him on the DL much of the second half last year aren't gone, and visa trouble will keep him out of the states until next week. I don't expect we'll see much of Hernandez before June, and the combination of him skipping AAA, his poor walk rate in the majors, and the general downside of pitching in Minute Maid make him a poor selection for the indefinite future.

70.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Mike Bacsik		3	0	4.37	1.47	30	19	63	55.2
NY Mets		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-2		-3
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	-2		-4

Bacsik's 3.74 ERA as a swingman for AAA Norfolk(IL) is rather surprising given his teammates left him with an 11.1 hit rate, and while his 75:25 K:BB in 108.1 IP are promising numbers, I don't see a lot of upside here due to his consistently unimpressive strikeout rates. The odds of Bacsik starting more than a couple games in New York any time soon are rather remote given Aaron Heilman should claim the #5 spot by the All-Star game and Jason Middlebrook deserves the first half opportunities. However I also think Bacsik could post Positive Draft Value fairly easily if given the chance. A 1.35 G-F suggests his 1.3 HR/9 should drop, thereby lowering his ERA close to 4.00. He's worth two bucks if he breaks camp with the team, and while you shouldn't expect much profit, he also shouldn't hurt you.

71.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Brad Penny		8	0	4.66	1.53	93	50	148	129.1
FLO Marlins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-3		15		12
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	-1		-2		15		16

Somehow Penny avoided suffering any abuse last year as he never exceeded 106 pitches. He posted a 47:19 K:BB in 56 IP with 60 H and 5 HR at home, and he won five games with a 4.37 ERA on a 67:28 K:BB in 80.1 IP with 82 H and 10 HR over 14 second half starts. Doubling those quantitative numbers give us a good idea of what to expect from him in 2003 assuming he won't break down due to overwork earlier in his career. Consequently $4 seems like a reasonable downside and a good minimum bid, and the questions surrounding Penny's health and the general state of the Marlins make double-digit bids risky; split the difference and stop bidding if his price exceeds $7.

72.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Kris Benson		9	0	4.70	1.55	79	50	152	130.1
PIT Pirates		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-3		-2		2
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	-1		-2		-1		1

While Benson lacks the overall upside of Matt Morris, his recovery from arm surgery should follow a similar pattern except Benson started immediately upon his return due to the Pirates' lack of depth. Pitchers generally need two years to regain full effectiveness following Tommy John surgery, and the only skill of Benson's that resembled his pre-surgery performance was a career-best 3.5 walk rate. He generally demonstrated weaker dominance, and his 1.05 G-F wasn't even close to his pre-surgery 1.70 career G-F. Left-handers tattooed him for a .932 OPS, and while he displayed much improved skills in the second half thanks to a very impressive set of six August starts, he faded in September. There's enough talent here to warrant a bid in the upper single digits based on his $20 upside once he's finally healthy and used to pitching, however his questionable skills and Pittsburgh's general mediocrity make any double-digit bid unwise.

73.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Kevin Brown		3	0	4.81	1.43	58	23	68	63.2
LA Dodgers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-4		17		24
2002 Age: 37	5x5:	-2		-3		16		26

The Dodgers owned the best defense in the league last season and shouldn't lose much effectiveness after replacing the right side of their infield, making Brown's 9.6 H/9 rather surprising. His career-worst 1.53 G-F and 1.3 homer rate also don't appear likely to recur if he's healthy, and there's a decent chance he could be close to full effectiveness by the beginning the season. Only an injury-free year stands between Brown and a roto value of $20 or more, and I think he's likely to post at least one more dynamic season before his contract expires after 2005. Brown's numbers while in relief also negated his effectiveness as a starter, so his questionable health remains the only reason to stop bidding even below the high teens. Monitor Spring Training reports very closely for news on Brown, and hopefully we'll be able to provide more concrete advice once we he start pitching in games. For now we're looking at around 170 innings and a value in the neighborhood of $15, though our optimism will increase with each successful outing.

74.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Shane Reynolds		3	0	4.86	1.43	47	26	80	74
HOU Astros		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-4		5		6
2002 Age: 34	5x5:	-2		-4		6		4

Reynolds only managed a 5.7 K/9 last year thanks to his back problems, yet he remained a good pitcher the previous two seasons despite limited dominance. He's a solid groundball pitcher whose homer rate looks high, and good health and better support from his teammates could push him back into double-digit value. I doubt you'll need to pay that much to roster him, although you shouldn't bid too close to $10 since he's averaged less than 130 IP for the last three years.

75.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Denny Neagle		8	0	5.26	1.42	111	63	170	164.1
COL Rockies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-2		-4		-10		R
2002 Age: 34	5x5:	-1		-2		-6		R

His demotion to the bullpen made no sense given that only weaker dominance and a welcome improvement in his G-F ratio differentiated his 2002 season from his 2001 stats. Neagle looks fully capable of returning to his former level of effectiveness once Colorado works a Hampton-like deal to trade him since unlike Hampton, Neagle's maintained relatively solid skills in Coors. He's obviously undraftable this year, however I wouldn't be surprised if he approach Positive Draft Value, and he's a good target to acquire once he changes teams.

76.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Aaron Cook		2	0	4.54	1.51	14	13	41	35.2
COL Rockies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		-4
2002 Age: 23	5x5:	-3		-6

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Colorado Prospects for comments on Cook.

50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '03 continues tomorrow with more National League starters.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Seattle pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training in only ten days. As the season is just two months from beginning, we strongly recommend finalizing the leagues in which you plan to participate in the very near future.