Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Starting Pitchers with DV of $10 to $14

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
2002 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2002.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 65/35 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2002 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2002 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season. Pitchers who started half or more of their major league games in 2002 are listed with starters.

11.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Kirk Rueter		14	0	3.23	1.27	76	54	204	203.2
SF Giants		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	14		20		2		R
2002 Age: 31	5x5:	13		18		2		R

Rueter's one of the rate starting pitchers that actually loses value in 5x5 leagues due to his very low strikeout rates. However he generally succeeds due to walk rates like last year's 2.4 BB/9 even when he only manages a 3.4 K/9. A 1.31 G-F indicates he's also developed into a groundball pitcher, which allowed his homer rate to fall below 1.00. Of course we'll almost never own Rueter because of his limited upside, and he's certainly a risky pitcher to purchase for more than a few bucks, but few starters have pitched at least 184 innings and won 11 or more games in each of the last six seasons.

12.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Tomokazu Ohka		13	0	3.18	1.24	118	45	194	192.2
MON Expos		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	14		20		-4		1
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	14		20		-2		1

While Ohka's failure to dominate hitters with a strikeout rate above 5.5 K/9 limits his upside, his 1.36 G-F, .9 HR/9, and 2.1 BB/9 also reduce his downside. He's likely to regress to some extent in his second season, especially as opposing managers begin to stack lineups with the right-handed batters that hit .298/.338/.470 off Ohka in 2002. I'm concerned about his reverse platoon split, and I also don't expect him to exceed a dozen wins due to questions about the Expos' offense. Therefore, though I don't believe he's capable of approaching $15 in 2003, you can probably bid into the high single digits for Ohka in the belief you'll see a small profit.

13.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Jason Schmidt		13	0	3.45	1.19	196	73	148	185.1
SF Giants		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	13		19		7		9
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	16		23		9		13

They key to Schmidt's breakout season was fantastic defensive support that kept his hit rate to 7.2, far below his pre-2002 career average of 9.3 BB/9. Increasing his strikeout rate to 9.5 K/9, nicely over a strikeout per inning, also established his dominance over opponents. He displayed surprising consistency in both halves of the season, especially considering his injury problems in April when he posted an 8.31 ERA and allowed 18 baserunners in only 8.2 innings. A walk rate of 3.5 BB/9 also isn't too impressive, yet fortunately PacBell limits the downside of a career-worst .77 G-F. Schmidt should strongly follow-up on this season in 2003, however I neither expect him to contend for a CY nor exceed $20.

14.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Matt Morris		17	0	3.42	1.30	171	64	210	210.1
STL Cardinals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	13		19		14		23
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	15		21		16		22

Despite some minor skill decreases, including a G-F drop from 2.01 to 1.65 and an increased in his walk rate from 2.2 to 2.7, Morris posted extremely similar marks to his great 2001 season. His qualitative numbers deteriorated in 2002 thanks to a hit-happy second half and the effects of both mild arm problems and Darryl Kile's death, however I don't see anything obviously wrong with his skills. Morris dropped from 22 to 17 wins primarily because the Cardinals provided him with more than a run less of support per game than the previous season. So while I don't expect him to post a sub-3.00 ERA or win 20 games in 2002, a 3.25 ERA, 18 or 19 wins, and a $20 season look very realistic.

15.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Hideo Nomo		16	0	3.39	1.32	193	101	189	220.1
LA Dodgers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	13		19		2		8
2002 Age: 34	5x5:	15		22		6		16

Nomo cut his walk rate by over a walk per game in the second half while raising his strikeout rate to over 8.7 K/9. Unfortunately, despite holding his homer rate to 1.1 on the year and keeping his ERA below 4.25 for the first time since 1996, Nomo only won 16 games due to meager run support from his teammates. Though I doubt he can improve upon this performance given the limited changes this offseason to the offense and defense supporting Nomo, he should maintain double-digit value in 2003, and his strikeouts remain quite helpful in 5x5 leagues.

16.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Matt Clement		12	0	3.60	1.20	215	85	162	205
CH Cubs		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	13		19		1		1
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	16		23		4		5

Clement led the Cubs in innings and only fell two strikeouts short of matching Kerry's team-high K total. Few pitchers improved as much as Clement last season as he went from a throw-in fifth starter with Alfonseca to arguably the Cubs' ace by the end of the year. The best news is his walk rate dropped to a career-best 3.7 BB/9, especially as his 9.4 K/9 was also a career-high. As he's also a groundball pitcher with no overly troublesome splits, Clement should push $15 or more in 2003; unfortunately he won't win many more games since the Cubs failed to improve their offense this winter.

17.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Kerry Wood		12	0	3.66	1.24	217	97	169	213.2
CH Cubs		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	12		17		18		23
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	15		22		20		21

He probably should have won close to a half-dozen more games as he wound up with 10 no decisions thanks to either unimpressive run support or repeated bullpen failures. I'm also concerned that his G-F, now at .83, has dropped for three straight seasons. Fortunately his walk rate is down to 4.1 BB/9 even as he still remains perhaps the premiere young fireballer in the majors. Wood also dominated in the second half, posting a 3.21 ERA on a 127:34 K:BB in 106.2 innings. Only inconsistency prevents Wood from emerging as one of the top starters in the game, and I'll be surprised if he fails to earn $20 in 2003.

18.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Al Leiter		13	0	3.48	1.29	172	69	194	204.1
NY Mets		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	12		17		15		15
2002 Age: 36	5x5:	13		19		15		18

Leiter returns to his more customary role as a #2 after the Mets' signing of Tom Glavine theoretically gives them a new ace. Of course Glavine owns far superior skills to Glavine, so hopefully the acquisition only means that Leiter will generally face lesser pitchers. Only Leiter's walk rate is even slightly above the level we'd like to see, and his 7.6 K/9 makes him quite handy in 5x5 leagues. The addition of Cliff Floyd and hopeful rebounds from Alomar and Vaughn should provide enough offense for Leiter to approach his career-high total of 17 wins. My only worry here is that Leiter noticeably slipped in the second half, so while I don't expect an age-related decline, I doubt he'll exceed $15 this season.

19.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Wade Miller		15	0	3.28	1.29	144	62	151	164.2
HOU Astros		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	11		16		15		14
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	12		18		16		19

Fortunately Miller's DL stint in the spring was not due to arm trouble, so he hopefully he won't suffer any repercussions despite Houston overworking him for a few seasons. His post-All Star performance nicely illustrates his upside of 11 wins and a 2.00 ERA on a 93:37 K:BB in 103.1 IP with 83 H and 5 HR. Miller kept his G-F above 1.20 for the third straight year, so only an elevated walk rate troubles me at all. I don't believe he possesses the ceiling of Oswalt, however Miller looks likely to reach his first $20 season in 2003, a value I expect him to achieve a few more times over the rest of the decade. I doubt you'll even need to pay $15 for him in most leagues, making him an excellent sleeper to target.

20.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Woody Williams		9	0	2.53	1.05	76	25	84	103.1
STL Cardinals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	11		16		15		7
2002 Age: 36	5x5:	10		15		14		12

A 6.6 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, and career-best 1.07 G-F provided the basis for Williams to dominate when healthy even though he only started 17 games. Other than a potential age-relate decline, I see no obvious reason why Williams can't maintain this performance over 200 innings, especially since his only injury problem was a strained oblique and not arm trouble. Bidding into the high teens looks risky, however my guess is he'll be available for $12 or $13 in many leagues, making him an intriguing bargain and sleeper potential 20-game winner.

21.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Elmer Dessens		7	0	3.03	1.25	93	49	173	178
CIN Reds		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	11		16		2		4
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	11		15		3		4

Cincinnati provided Dessens with the sixth worst run support in the league at 4.10 R/G, more than a run below the production Arizona averaged in 2002. Though he certainly doesn't dominate anyone with a 4.7 K/9, a 2.5 BB/9 and 8.7 H/9 also demonstrate that he allows relatively few baserunners. His 1.2 homer rate seems high given his solid 1.48 G-F, though I suspect he'll allow a few longballs after moving to the desert. A likely increase in Dessens' wins should compensate for most erosion in his qualitative numbers, making him a decent buy anywhere in single digits.

22.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Damian Moss		12	0	3.42	1.28	111	89	140	179
ATL Braves		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:R	4x4:	10		15		0
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	11		15		0

San Francisco basically stole Moss from the Braves as he'll likely match Ortiz's performance over the next few years while costing significantly less and adding a second lefty to the Giants' rotation. Of course he's still quite raw and should experience a year of growing pains, though playing in PacBell will alleviate some of his troubles. I'm not too concerned about his borderline-acceptable homer and G-F rates, however a 4.5 BB/9 is not good, especially when paired with a 5.6 K/9. Despite holding lefties to a .587 OPS, Moss only managed a 1.4 K:BB against them. Fortunately his minor league history suggests his walk rate generally improves in his second season at a level; therefore expect a mild improvement in Moss' hit and walk rates as he starts looking fairly similar to Kirk Rueter. While he's too risky to warrant a double-digit bid, I see enough upside here to suggest he could approach $15 in 2003.

23.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Russ Ortiz		14	0	3.61	1.33	137	94	191	214.1
SF Giants		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	10		15		21		14
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	11		16		21		16

Instead of continuing to reduce his walk rate and developing into the ace we expected, Ortiz instead suffered from a recurrence of his control problems and earned a ticket out of PacBell and into Turner Field. Atlanta will provide him with less run support, a worse ballpark, and even reduced relief help compared to the Giants. Even though I expect Ortiz and Moss to perform similarly in 2003, the likely difference between them in stats like wins and ERA will make San Francisco appear the easy winners of this swap. I'm quite concerned about his 5.8 K/9 as he's striking out roughly two batters less per game than only two years ago. Given that Ortiz averaged nearly 113 pitches per game in his first full season in 1999 and the Giants continued to abuse him over the last few years, I doubt he'll exceed 180 innings this year due to a probable DL trip. So despite the potential benefits of working with Leo Mazzone, I expect Ortiz will struggle to earn double-digits and likely wind up a disappointment for his fantasy owners.

24.		W	S	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	H	IP
Javier Vazquez		10	0	3.91	1.27	179	49	243	230.1
MON Expos		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	10		14		29		21
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	12		17		28		24

I doubt any NL pitcher disappointed us more than Javier Vazquez as he earned scarcely a third of the value we expected from him. Now there's a good chance that past abuse could be holding him back, however we also believe he'd build upon his fantastic second half in 2001. Instead his G-F continued plummeting to .94 after dropping from 1.51 to 1.28 the previous season, thereby pushing his homer rate to 1.1. His strikeout rate also fell below 7.0 K/9 after staying over 8.0 for two years in a row. However the most significant reason Vazquez failed to match our projections is that Montreal's defense allowed his hit rate to jump from 7.6 to 9.5 H/9. A jump from 8.9 in the first half to 10.3 H/9 after the break also caused his ERA to approach 4.00 instead of settling around 3.50. I'm not sure if Montreal will field a stronger defensive team in 2003, but Vazquez is nicely positioned for an excellent rebound season as he qualitative contribution should double, giving him a good chance of reaching $20. Target him as a solid sleeper especially if your competitors shy away from Expos in general.

50 Days to Choose Your Pitchers: '03 continues tomorrow with more National League starters.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Not a single one of the top 10 NL starters finished the year between the ages of 28 and 34, however fully half of today's pitchers fall into that age bracket. The implication of this breakdown is that while pitchers still generally reach their peaks between 28 and 32, true prospects appear to approach their ceilings at an earlier age. Kerry Wood, Wade Miller, Javier Vazquez, and even Damian Moss therefore look like much better candidates to reach $20 or more in 2003 than a Clement, Leiter, or Ortiz, despite the similarly solid skills displayed by the latter pitchers.