Today's Fantasy Rx

Please refer to last Monday's article for an in-depth look at the new LPR codes.

Unfortunately we encountered a rather annoying roadblock while compiling the statistics for these articles. We were unable to locate pitcher game logs for 2000 that include detailed data like G-F ratio. I will certainly update this article if I discover that data in an easily accessible format, however we're currently lacking any c, C, z, or Z ratings for the moment. We regret any inconvenience this causes you.

The following each require a 25 IP minimum in each season:

1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2002.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2001.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2000.

QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score.

Note: Pitchers must pitch in five games before scoring DOM or DIS points.

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 appearances
A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 75% of 2002 appearances
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2001 appearances
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 75% of 2001 appearances
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2000 appearances
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 75% of 2000 appearances

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 appearances
X - QA score below 3 in no more than 10% of 2002 appearances
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2001 appearances
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 10% of 2001 appearances
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2000 appearances
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 10% of 2000 appearances

Houston Astros

12
abxY - Billy Wagner
abxy - Roy Oswalt

3
b - Nelson Cruz

a
bxY - Octavio Dotel
bxy - Tom Gordon
b - Wade Miller
x - Ricky Stone

b
y - Hipolito Pichardo
Scott Linebrink
Shane Reynolds
Joe Slusarski

x
Brandon Puffer

Recent Astros who didn't qualify for any LPR score include Pedro Borbon, Kent Bottenfield, Jason Green, Kip Gross, Carlos Hernandez, Brad Lidge, Mike Maddux, Jim Mann, T.J. Mathews, Dave Mlicki, Peter Munro, Yorkis Perez, Tim Redding, Jeriome Robertson, Wil Rodriguez, and Kirk Saarloos.

Houston may possess the best organization-wide pitching depth in the game, and the significant number of quality pitchers that have arrived in the majors from their system over the past few years is a great credit to their open-minded methods of player development. Oswalt and Miller give them two starters with upsides that match any established youngster in the game, while Wagner and Dotel probably are the best late-inning due in baseball. Bullpen guys like Stone, Linebrink, and Puffer give them a comfortable excess of middle relievers, and once a couple guys like Hernandez and Saarloos emerge as consistent rotation presences, others like Lidge, Redding, and Robertson can settle into middle-inning dominance as relievers.

Once you get past the elite four pitchers, who will cost you a significant investment in any league, the strength of the Astros' staff for roto purposes is middle relievers. The friendliness of Minute Maid towards hitters leaves Houston starters without great strikeout numbers very uncertain gambles, however these same pitchers could excel in relief roles. If Redding and Lidge in particular are left in the pen, I certainly can see them approaching Dotel's numbers while earning double-digit value.

Milwaukee Brewers

a
bxy - Ray King
x - Jayson Durocher
x - Luis Vizcaino
Ben Sheets

b
y - Chad Fox
Curt Leskanic

x
Mike DeJean

y
Mike Buddie
Nelson Figueroa

Recent Brewers who didn't qualify for any LPR score include Jim Bruske, Jose Cabrera, Matt Childers, Rocky Coppinger, Valerio de los Santos, Ben Diggins, Wayne Franklin, Gus Gandarillas, Brandon Kolb, Mark Leiter, Allen Levrault, Andrew Lorraine, Brian Mallette, Mike Matthews, Shane Nance, Nick Neugebauer, Takaki Nomura, Jimmy Osting, Lance Painter, Dave Pember, Kyle Peterson, Ruben Quevedo, Hector Ramirez, Paul Rigdon, Rafael Roque, Glendon Rusch, John Snyder, Everett Stull, and Matt T. Williams.

Milwaukee again should field a relatively solid bullpen, despite dispatching Ray King to Atlanta for Wes Helms and John Foster, the latter a potential replacement for King within the next year. DeJean doesn't possess traditional closer skills, but the Brewers benefit from reserving him for low-pressure situations since he's relatively consistent, thereby leaving Vizcaino and Durocher to handle the more important middle innings. Valerio de los Santos could emerge as a decent roto option if he remains healthy, and the pending return of Leskanic from injury adds more depth to this pen.

Unfortunately the rotation is in shambles. Quevedo's extreme flyball tendencies make him extremely risky even if he's healthy and returns to the rotation. Rusch is a decent innings' eater but I no longer expect an impressive breakout from him in the near future. Neugebauer is a significant injury risk who still hasn't completely conquered his control problems, and while I'm happy to risk a couple bucks on his upside, make sure you can bench him at your leisure before rostering him.

The two pitchers here with tremendous immediate upside are Ben Sheets and Chad Fox. In the second half, Sheets posted a 7.1 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 9.7 H/9, 1.1 HR/9, and a 1.0 G-F. Although I'm slightly concerned about his homer rate and G-F ratio, his dominance and control, together with his gradually improving stat history, suggest a sharp uptick in value in the near future. Approaching $20 for Sheets in 2003 doesn't seem unreasonable.

Fox's only trouble is remaining healthy as he's a dominant reliever when not injured. Boston's middle relief depth lends itself to an inexpensive closing option, and I'll be somewhat surprised if Fox doesn't lead the Red Sox with 20 or more saves. His general fragility means he can't pitch as frequently as Mendoza, Embree, Timlin, or Howry, so by employing Fox exclusively in late-inning roles, Boston will protect Fox's arm while also establishing a stopper at the end of the pen for the playoffs. If you don't mind the perennial risk of injury, consider allocating around $10 to secure Fox's services for your team.

I'll continue reviewing the new LPR scores tomorrow with pitchers from Pittsburgh and St. Louis.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Roy Oswalt is probably the best young starter in baseball, and he should be available in many auctions no later than 2004. I can't imagine letting him go for under $20, and considering we expect he'll post a $40 value sometime in the next three years, feel free to bid up to no less than $30 for him. We normally don't advise making significant investments in starters, but since he owns both fantastic skills and a reasonably clean injury history, the combination of the Astros' offense and solid bullpen gives him the necessary support to win around 20 games for several seasons in a row.